Why New Hampshire Is Trending Trump – and Why It Likely Doesn’t Matter

For most of this fall in my election talks, I have argued that the most plausible road to victory for Donald Trump runs through New Hampshire. Others seem to agree as, apparently, does Trump; media reports indicate he is scheduled to spend election eve in Manchester, at the Southern New Hampshire University arena which is where he held a massive rally on the night of his New Hampshire primary victory. The Clinton team is countering with President Obama, who will also be in New Hampshire on Monday night, while Clinton will come to New Hampshire on Sunday. My mostly Clinton-leaning audiences here in Vermont have usually found my talks reassuring, since polls consistently showed Clinton ahead in the Granite state by comfortable margins.  Thus just five days ago the RCP polling average had Clinton holding a comfortable 5% lead in New Hampshire. And then the polling bottom fell out for Clinton.  In the five polls in the field since Oct. 28 (that include Gary Johnson and Jill Stein), Trump is ahead in three, and is tied with Clinton in two others, pushing him ahead in the RCP poll in New Hampshire by 1.6% – a drop of almost 7% in Clinton’s support in less than a week. (I should note that Drew Linzer’s site, which aggregates polls in a way that makes the results less sensitive to recent polls) still gives Clinton a very strong probability of winning New Hampshire.) Trump’s polling surge has prompted (mostly panicked) Clinton supporters to email me asking whether this means Trump’s odds for winning the election have significantly increased, since I spent so much time explaining the importance of winning New Hampshire for him.

The short answer is no.  Linzer, whose state-level polling-based forecasts proved to be the gold standard in 2012 and again in 2014,  currently has Trump’s probability of winning the presidential election at 10% – only about 4% better than before Trump’s surge (if polls are accurate) in New Hampshire.  Before explaining why Trump’s NH surge isn’t enough to appreciably improve his election chances, it’s worth exploring why he’s doing so well in my neighboring state.  Long-time readers will remember that I spent considerable time at Trump rallies in New Hampshire (I attended three there), exploring the reasons why New Hampshire voters were supporting The Donald.  As I noted in an earlier post, “it quickly became clear that two themes dominated the thinking of Trump supporters.  The first, expressed – unprompted by me – by every person I talked to, was economic anxiety.  Interestingly, that anxiety was not directed so much at their own situation but toward that of their children, or others close to them.” Put most simply, New Hampshire voters expressed a strong belief that the American Dream was slipping away from their children.  The second theme that emerged, and again I’ll quote from my earlier post, “was a deep antipathy toward Hillary Clinton. One man, in his early 40’s, told me he wasn’t voting for Trump as much as he was against Clinton. Almost to a person those I talked to expressed a fundamental belief that she could not be trusted.  At one point in our conversation, the woman whose daughter is having twins lowered her voice to tell me, “I’m a Roman Catholic and a good Christian, but I just have to say this: that woman [Hillary Clinton] is evil.”  For a more detailed glimpse of what Trump supporters believe, I urge you to read the full post. But my sense is that since those visits, stories regarding the increase in Obamacare premiums, and the steady drip-drip of Wikileaks that seemed to confirm their worst fears regarding Clinton’s honesty, have moved more voters into Trump’s column.  It has probably helped that Trump has finally seemed to develop a coherent message highlighting those themes.  Since my last trip to a New Hampshire Trump rally, he has visited the state twice more, and is now running television ads that directly address issues of Clinton’s trustworthiness, and economic anxiety.

Of course, not everyone accepted my analysis regarding what motivated Trump’s New Hampshire followers.  Many readers responded by citing research by our colleagues (see, for example this) suggesting that the bulk of Trump’s support is motivated by racial resentment, and that in fact feelings of economic anxiety are themselves rooted in part by racism. For brevity’ sake, I’ll not repeat our exchange, except to note that I remain concerned that our efforts to measure “racial resentment” are sometimes tapping into more principled opposition, often expressed to me by Trump supporters in NH, against race-based policies. And, while I acknowledge that it is difficult to detect racial sentiments in direct conversations, my primitive efforts at social anthropology left me persuaded there was a lot more to Trump’s support than simple bigotry, at least among New Hampshire voters.

Be that as it may, the broader point is that we shouldn’t be surprised that Trump may have pulled ahead in New Hampshire – his campaign themes, as I found in my interviews there, resonated with a broad cross-section of New Hampshire voters.  So, why doesn’t this improve his chances for winning the presidency?  To understand why, it’s worth analyzing how analysts like Linzer construct their win probabilities. Remember that most state-level polls consistent of random samples of likely voters.  Done properly, those surveys allow us estimate the range of probabilities regarding how the actual vote is distributed in each state, based on the poll.  By using those probabilities to generate multiple possible outcomes across all states, analysts like Linzer can estimate the overall probability that a candidate will emerge as the winner.  Simply put, when you look at the likelihood of each candidate winning particular states, there are a lot more paths for Clinton to get to 270 electoral votes (the minimum needed to win), based on current polling, than there are for Trump to do so.  Or, to put it in the context of my talks, when I laid out the most probable path for Trump to win the presidency, I noted how important it was for him to win New Hampshire.   However, I didn’t spend nearly as much time talking in depth about the many more combination of states by which Clinton could win – even if she lost New Hampshire.

So, under one scenario I discussed in my talks, Trump could eke out a victory by holding all the Romney states from 2012, and flipping five additional states as well as winning Maine’s 2nd congressional district.  This scenario is not impossible, at least not according to current polling, but it requires Trump winning New Hampshire.

picture1But current polls also suggest that even as Trump pulls ahead in New Hampshire, he’s still behind in Nevada and probably Florida, and it’s not clear he can hold onto North Carolina – a state Romney won in 2012.  Moreover, if you play out all the possible Electoral College scenarios in this way, which is what simulations are designed to do, the odds still heavily favor Clinton.  She simply has more paths to victory.  Trump, in contrast, has far fewer electoral options and thus has to hope all the key states break his way – an outcome that, while not impossible, is much more improbable.

As I noted in my last post, history suggested all along that this race would tighten in the final week as Republicans who expressed skepticism about Trump’s candidacy came home to the partisan roost most familiar to them, twitter talk about landslides notwithstanding.  But don’t let this tightening blind you to the Electoral College math which, based on polling at this point three days out, still strongly favors Clinton.

The Race Was Always Going To Tighten

Let’s be clear: if history is a reliable guide, this presidential race was going to finish closer than the polling last Friday indicated – even without the latest Clinton-Comey email imbroglio. Indeed, there was evidence that the race was already tightening before Comey’s letter telling congressional leaders a new batch of emails that were potentially pertinent to the Clinton email investigation had been discovered.  The reason is, as Robert Erikson and Chris Wlezien explain in their exhaustive study of presidential polling,  as campaigns wind down to Election Day, partisan identification becomes an increasingly important predictor of the vote.  This means that voters who may have told pollsters earlier in the campaign that they were considering voting for the other party’s candidate eventually come home to support their own party’s nominee. It is not surprising, then, that in the two weeks prior to the leaking of Comey’s letter last Friday, Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolling aggregate had dropped by almost 3%.  Moreover, as I have been telling my election audiences, the race would have tightened more quickly had Trump been able to get out of his own way in order to focus his message on the fundamentals – the economy and terrorism – that are of greatest concern to voters.  Instead, he managed (to Clinton’s relief and not without her help) to focus attention on a series of news stories, from his missing tax returns to Alicia Machado to the 2005 audio tape and allegations of sexual harassment (and worse), that collectively steered the campaign coverage toward exactly the wrong issues from his perspective. In this vein, it is worth recalling that almost all the political scientist election forecast models predicted that this would be a tight race – in the aggregate (which is how I make my quadrennial forecast) the forecast models have Clinton winning the two-party popular vote by about 1%.  (This is probably a good time to remind readers that if you want to know who is going to win the election Drew Linzer’s site  is probably the gold standard. However, if you want to know WHY the candidate won, you need to consult the political scientist forecasts models.)

polls

So will this latest email controversy make a lasting difference?  Many journalists think it will.  Thus, WCAX’s superb Eva McKend, citing our earlier conversation in which I expressed skepticism that any “October Surprise” would affect this election, chided me in this tweet: “@MattDickinson44 how about this for an October surprise? Sorry Matt, I think you were wrong on this one. It’s definitely real.”  Eva is right that the Comey story will likely affect the polls, at least in the short run.  But I suspect it won’t affect the overall trajectory of this race nearly as much as Clinton’s supporters fear and her critics hope.  As I told Eva, so-called October surprises rarely have a lasting impact on the presidential race unless they occur in the last few days of the campaign.  One example of an October surprise that might have mattered is the 2000 story, released four days before the presidential election, of George W. Bush’s conviction for drunk driving more than two decades earlier.  In his memoirs, Karl Rove laments that the announcement cost Bush about 2% of the popular vote and perhaps 30 Electoral College votes – enough to win the election without Florida.  Because it occurred so late in the campaign, the Bush team didn’t have much time to go on the offensive and bring the campaign narrative back to the themes that had, until that point, put him in the polling lead.

Another potential example is Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh’s decision to announce Caspar Weinberger’s indictment on October 30 for Weinberger’s actions regarding the Iran-contra affair – an indictment that cast doubt on President Bush’s claim that he was not involved in the decisionmaking that led President Reagan to swap arms for hostages.  Bush supporters contend that news story blunted the last minute momentum that had nearly pulled him into a tie with Clinton.

However, both these incidents took place within 4-5 days of Election Day.  That’s not the case with the Comey announcement last Friday, which occurred with 11 days to go before final voting.  Already Clinton surrogates, like John Podesta and Tim Kaine, are taking to the airwaves to turn Comey’s behavior and motivation, and not the investigation into the emails itself, into the main story.  And Clinton is attacking Comey head on during her stump speeches, calling his actions highly unusual.  Not surprisingly, my  twitter feed has seen a dramatic reversal, with Clinton supporters now casting aspersions on Comey’s professionalism, whereas a week ago they were praising his decision not to pursue criminal charges against their candidate, while Trump’s backers now see him as the paragon of integrity – a stark reversal from their views prior to last Friday.  No one ever accused the partisan denizens on social media of consistency!

Note that this is exactly the tactic Clinton and her surrogates have been using to beat back the steady drip, drip, and drip of the Wikileaks stories, which in my view are potentially far more damaging to her presidential ambitions, with the window they provide into the Clinton Foundation fundraising for Bill Clinton and private concerns expressed by Podesta and others over the security of her email server.  To date, however, the Clinton campaign has managed to make the WikiLeaks story as much about Russian meddling in the U.S. election, and stolen emails, as it is a window into possible Clinton corruption. In this they have been aided by Trump’s apparent inability to stay on message, thus inadvertently helping Clinton refocus media attention away from the potentially damaging leaks.

In short, I believe that there is enough time for the latest Comey email issue to be fully debated and digested in a way that won’t dramatically change the trajectory of this race, which was already tightening.   At most, it will move the race toward the equilibrium it was already trending toward, which was a closer contest than what we saw last Friday.  To be clear, if forced to guess, I suspect these emails won’t do a whit to change Comey’s original finding that there was no criminal intent on Clinton’s part – only negligence – when it came to handling classified material. But at this point the substance of the emails hardly matters, since Comey’s agents can’t possible complete a review of what is reported to be thousands of documents in 11 days.  And that vacuum will certainly allow pundits and talking heads to do what they do best: engage in uninformed speculation designed to drive ratings.  Already we see that with cable discussion about what the emails might say, or whether Clinton’s associates might have obstructed justice – all in the absence of any information on either point. Conceivably, of course, the wild cable chatter might influence some of the early voting going on now. At the same time, however, the lack of substance allows Clinton’s team to change the conversation into a discussion about Comey meddling in an election.  Moreover, the media cycle is such that this story is likely to recede into the background noise by Election Day in a way that allows the outcome to turn on the fundamentals that typically drive most presidential elections.  That assumes, of course, that there’s not another October Surprise in the interim – and that Trump can avoid stepping on his own campaign message. So far, the latter has proved to be a very unrealistic assumption.

Does the Comey story help Trump?  Undoubtedly, at least in the short run.  Will it change the outcome of this race?  I suspect not.

Private Parts and October Surprises

Was this the October surprise? Last week, in an interview previewing the vice presidential debate,  I was asked about the possibility of an “October surprise” – an unexpected event that could potentially shake up the presidential race.  I noted that these events are inherently unpredictable but that historically the presidential campaign enters its most stable period during October, largely because most likely voters have made up their minds regarding who they will support, and the number of remaining undecideds dwindles throughout the month. The bottom line, I suggested, is that we were unlikely going to see anything that would change the dynamics of the 2016 race.

Then came the release of audio from 2005 revealing Donald Trump’s deplorable comments regarding his views toward women.  The media reaction has been overwhelming, to say the least, with the story dominating the Sunday news shows and social media.  Pundits have gone into overdrive, predicting that Trump’s remarks constituted an “extinction-level event” that essentially ended the already long-shot chance he had of winning this race, and which might cost Republicans control of the Senate and possibly even the House.  Reacting to the news, Republican Party leaders are deserting the Trump campaign as fast as they can with many saying they won’t even vote for him, never mind endorse his candidacy.

Count me as one who thinks that Trump’s “latest” comments (made in 2005) – as reprehensible as they are – are unlikely to have nearly the impact on this race that the pundits claim.  This is not to say they aren’t damaging to Trump’s campaign  – they are, in large part because with less than a month remaining in the campaign they detract from his ability to focus on the issues – such as trade policy, immigration and terrorism – that potentially might win over some of the dwindling number of undecided voters.  However, the fact is that after a period of weeks during which the race undoubtedly tightened – mostly because of Clinton’s absence from the campaign trail combined with a spate of bad news regarding her health and emails – her return to active campaigning seemed to be a stabilizing factor, topped off by a strong first debate performance.  Since then, national polls showed her holding a relatively steady lead of 3-5% over Trump.  That would be a sizeable gap for any candidate to overcome this late in the race, never mind one with Trump’s inability to focus on the fundamentals most favorable to his candidacy.

The other reason why his remarks might create less damage is that his supporters have shown a deep and abiding distrust of the very people – media pundits and Republican Party leaders – who are the most vocal in condemning Trump’s remarks. Recall that Trump received almost no party support prior to the Iowa caucuses, as documented by Hans Noel, even as he led national polls for most of the pre-election period.

noel

Moreover, as J. Eric Oliver and Wendy Rahn point out, we are in a period of heightened party unity in Congress, as measured by how often the two parties vote together as a bloc, combined with a strong belief among adult Americans that our governing institutions do not represent the people, but instead are controlled by elites.

rahn

 

This “representation gap” is the largest since the mid-1990’s, a period – not surprisingly – in which other candidates sporting a populist message, including Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan, found surprisingly strong electoral support.  Because Trump draws so much of his support from people who believe our governing institutions and political elites, including major party leaders, the media, and the political activists who dominate social media, do not represent their interests, I think it highly unlikely they are going to take their cues from individuals in these groups who are now so visibly condemning Trump’s remarks.  This is not because they agree with those remarks – it’s because they care more about the core issues that brought them into Trump’s camp in the first place.

I’ll be on later tonight live blogging the second presidential debate at http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/   See you in a few minutes.