Rubio on the Rise in New Hampshire? Notes from the Campaign Trail

Fresh off what most observers saw as a strong debate performance last Thursday, Marco Rubio returned to New Hampshire the following Friday to a packed house (based on posted room capacity, I estimate a bit under 400 in attendance) at the Common Man Inn in Claremont. Your intrepid blogger was there, and here’s what I saw.

As is customary for us when we rely on Google maps, our directions to the Rubio event seemed more like suggestions. When we finally pulled in front of the Inn, frantic staff members began screaming at us that Mario’s bus was pulling in “literally this second.” Sure enough, I turned the car around in time to just miss getting crushed by Rubio’s campaign bus, adorned with a smiling Marco.

We managed to park the car without mishap and hurried back to the event in time to catch the start. After taking our vital information (name, email, residence), we were finally directed into the event by some very young, polite and smartly-dressed Rubio staffers. The room was filled to capacity, and we went to the back where the media was lined up. This was our view. As you can see, it was a far more intimate setting than the Trump rally I attended in Claremont.

This was Rubio’s 5th New Hampshire campaign appearance of the day, but he was animated at the start and appeared to gain energy as the event went on. He started by asking for a show of hands for people from Vermont. About a dozen or so went up. I’m not sure why he asked, unless it was to ferret out Bernie supporters who might launch a protest, but after seeing the hands go up he asked, “What’s up with your Senator?” which elicited laughs from the crowd. My sense, looking around, was that this was a more economically diverse crowd than what I saw at Kasich’s talk, and a younger one too. But it was still dominated by older voters.  On the whole, it was an energetic crowd who seemed eager to hear what Rubio had to say.

After poking fun at Bernie, Rubio then launched into what I assume is his standard stump speech, beginning with an overview of his upbringing as the son of immigrants. Here he took pains to contrast his life experience with Hillary Clinton’s, noting, “I understand what it means to live paycheck-to-paycheck.” (Note: all my quotes are based on notes taken at the event and are as close to verbatim as memory and the scribbled comments allow.) Interestingly, except for Trump, I’ve not heard a single Republican candidate boast that they can beat Sanders – they all seem to assume Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and they target her.  Bernie is largely an afterthought in their minds.

After extolling the values that allowed his parents to succeed in this country, Rubio noted that the country was now in decline – a decline he blamed on Obama and failed leadership. His goal is to turn American off this road, and to restore the American miracle. He asserted that America is still the greatest country in the world – something that is best appreciated by people who came here from another country. Obama, he charged, wants to make America more like other countries. (At the mention of Obama’s name the crowd booed.)

He then addressed his age, indirectly, by noting that when deciding to run for the Senate in Florida in 2010, many party leaders advised him to wait his turn, and that he couldn’t win. He’s hearing those same warnings now, but he argues that the urgency of the situation facing the country requires him to act, not wait. This was followed by an exposition of his stances on key issues, beginning with gun control (he will protect the Second Amendment, and lambasted Obama’s recent executive action on this topic.) Rubio noted that best way to stop gun-related crime was not to penalize law abiding citizens (“Criminals always get guns no matter what the law. That’s why we call them criminals!”) but instead to enforce current laws and to deal with mental health issues.

Rubio then turned to the Supreme Court and lower-court judicial appointments – the first Republican I can remember tackling this issue during their NH swings. He promised to appoint more Scalias, and fewer Sotomayors. He then went on to take direct swipes at two of his closest rivals in the New Hampshire polls – Ted Cruz and Chris Christie – although he was careful to note that he liked them both and that his attacks were not personal. He criticized Cruz for supporting a Value Added Tax (VAT) which Rubio said would simply hike the cost of goods. In contrast, Rubio said he would simplify the tax code by reducing it to two brackets and establishing a separate business rate. (He would also roll back economic regulations and move to eliminate Obamacare.) He then went after Christie for the latter’s support of Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court – here Rubio offered to read directly from the statement released by Christie touting her appointment – as well as Christie’s liberal stances on other issues, like Common Core. This was the most direct attack on one’s Republican opponents that I’ve yet to see during the current election cycle, and may be a function of the dwindling number of days before the February 9 New Hampshire primary. In talking about court appointees, Rubio said he would support term limits for judges and for members of Congress too.

He then turned to immigration, linking border control to national security. He took pains to say he wasn’t anti-immigration, but it was imperative to know who was coming into the country and why. He advocated hiring 20,000 border agents – “not IRS agents” – and building better walls and fences. He scolded the Obama administration for what Rubio said was weakening our military at a time when China and Russia are getting stronger (he also referenced “that lunatic” in North Korea). “We are not a weak people,” Rubio proclaimed, “We have a weak president.” While he expressed concern for the state of American, he suggested that if this generation does it part, he is confident that the next generation will be the most free and most prosperous in American history.

At this point Rubio took questions from what appeared to be a largely sympathetic audience. The topics included his views on fully funding PEPFAR (the AIDS treatment program for Africa) – Rubio would fully fund it and he gave a shout-out to President Bush for starting the program; global climate change (“Didn’t they use to call it global warming?”) – he argued for more innovation and diversification in energy development, and warned against stricter regulation that could hurt the economy; gun control and the Second Amendment – Rubio argued that none of the recent gun tragedies would have been prevented by stronger background checks, which are sometimes wrong and we shouldn’t prevent families from protecting themselves; government entitlement programs – Rubio would protect existing beneficiaries, but made clear that some changes are needed, such as increasing the retirement age, to keep Social Security solvent; rising housing costs – here Rubio faulted the Fed for creating the housing bubble and warned that banks were now creating a stock market bubble that doesn’t benefit lower and middle-income workers. He talked more generally about reforming the Federal Reserve – “the Fed is not some Jedi council!” – by linking its decisions on interest rates and the money supply to some easily observable fixed guidelines. The last three questions dealt with the drug abuse problem, “privatizing” Medicare, and the separation of church and state. Regarding the regional drug problem, Rubio noted that Mexican and Latin American drug cartels have a business plan based on expanding their market by targeting New Hampshire and that to stem demand we have to start treating drug addiction as a medical problem which requires greater government spending on basic research. Rubio opposes the legalization of marijuana while acknowledging that alcohol abuse is a big issue too; however, “I’m not going to ban alcohol – I’m Catholic!” Rubio said he would reform Medicare – not by privatizing it – but by giving beneficiaries more options similar to buying Medicare Advantage coverage. Again, he stressed that he would make no changes that would affect current beneficiaries. When asked about his views regarding the separation of church and state, Rubio was quick to note that the Constitution speaks only about not establishing a state religion (the establishment clause) – not the separation of church and state. Here he went on an extended discussion regarding how the country was founded on fundamental Judeo-Christian values. “Laws tell us what is legal – not what is right or wrong,” he insisted. We need strong families to inculcate these values in our children to prevent the unraveling of society. “I am a follower of Jesus Christ” he proclaimed, and went on to discuss the biblical passage of Jesus healing the lepers. Rubio’s point is that the decision to heal came not from the law, but from faith. No government, he said, should force people to act against their conscience.

Rubio speaks in flowing paragraphs, unspooling extended, cogent talking points on every issue without using notes. He sprinkled his presentation with frequent humorous asides designed to play to his particular audience (‘I’m going to put Tom Brady in my cabinet so my Dolphins can finally win a playoff game”; “When did Sean Penn leave Madonna for El Chapo?”). As the night went on, he seemed to pick up energy and become more relaxed, so that near the end of his speech he had established an easy rapport with the crowd. After he finished taking question he spent another 15 minutes mingling as audience members crowded around for pictures.

rubio crowd2

On the whole, his talk was an engaging blend of criticism of the current state of affairs intermingled with an apparently strong belief in the nation’s capacity for greatness. In talking to audience members after the speech, several mentioned how impressed they were by Rubio’s optimism, which they contrasted with the more negative tone of other Republican candidates. This was an interesting reaction since a good deal of Rubio’s talk emphasized that we were a nation in decline. Somehow Rubio is able to project an innate optimism despite his dire warnings regarding the current state of the nation. And that optimism appears to be catching on. Coming of a series of generally strong debate performances, Rubio has seen his political stock rise. In New Hampshire he has climbed into second place, trailing only Donald Trump – no mean feat given his generally conservative social views.

One could easily anticipate how a strong showing in Iowa might cement his status as the establishment alternative to the Donald. To be sure, New Hampshire offers a potential test to Rubio’s particular brand of social conservatism. But if the anti-Donald vote remains split among several establishment Republicans, Rubio might use a second-place finish in New Hampshire to claim momentum heading into South Carolina, where his conservatism is likely to be looked on more favorably.  A lot can happen in almost three weeks.  But Rubio seems to be peaking at the right moment.

6 comments

  1. Matt,

    I tend to agree with your assessment. Rubio has strong support among the students on my campus in Mississippi. They’re turned off by the age of Bush and Kasich. Many find Trump to be a buffoon and Cruz to be too antagonistic. Christie is seen as a bully. Mississippi may be the most conservative state in the union but there seems to be some rationality in the conservatism of the younger voters and the establishment here (many endorsed Kasich).

    The question is, can Rubio translate his youth and energy, eloquence and rationality, and still somewhat populist appeal into votes? I suppose we’ll find out after New Hampshire votes. I’ve had Rubio pegged as the favorite to win the nomination IF The Party Decides thesis prevails. I have so far been unwilling to concede that either Trump or Cruz could generate sufficient support outside the early states to actually secure the nomination.

    Rob

  2. Rob,

    I thought there was a palpable difference in the energy level of the crowd at Rubio’s event compared to what I was seeing at Kasich’s or Christie’s. Granted, some of this may be a function of timing – Rubio was coming off a strong debate performance, and I saw the other two earlier in the campaign. But I was struck by the fact that a candidate with such a conservative social message was attracting such support in New Hampshire. I have to think he’ll run even stronger down your way. Keep in mind that even if he only attracts 20% support in NH, that still may be enough to take 2nd place here, and it would likely encourage the party establishment to rally behind him, particularly if Kasich, Bush or Christie drop out after a disappointing New Hampshire showing. So I think your students are on to something. Of course, the race is still volatile, and a lot can happen in a bit more than two weeks.

  3. Matt:

    As I told you earlier, I went all in for Marco months ago; my wife as well. The fact that he can continue to relate to any crowd is simply testimony that he is the real deal. What you see is what you get.

    Marco understands it is a marathon, not a sprint. If he’s right, a good showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by increasingly stronger showings heading South seems to me like a winning strategy.

    Trump has changed this race in so many ways; but really, Marco glides along, running his own race at his own pace. The race is not always to the swiftest…

    Glad you liked him.

    Shelly

  4. Shelly – I can see why you find Rubio an attractive candidate. He’s got a lot going for him. We were particularly impressed with how well he worked the crowd in a relatively intimate setting. To clear, however, I’m not actually endorsing anyone!

  5. Matt,

    I was in Manchester, NH last week with my Presidential Nominations class from Siena College. We attended his rally in Derry the morning after the debate. I was struck, as you were, by his ability to convey a sense of optimism without actually saying very optimistic things. I was also really impressed by his interactions with the crowd afterwards. Four of my students volunteered for him all week and spent most of their time canvassing (as opposed to the other campaigns, who seemed to rely somewhat more on phone banking than the Rubio campaign). If NH comes down to retail politicking, he can potentially do very well. He needs to keep making appearances, though.

  6. Jack,

    It’s good to hear your additional observations as a reality check on what I thought I was seeing – I’m glad we agree! If it rings true more generally, you make a particularly telling observation regarding Rubio’s relative reliance on canvassing versus phone banking. My understanding is that door-knocking is more effective at turning out voters than is phone banking. I’m not sure how well his conservative social views will play in New Hampshire, but he only needs to do well – not necessarily win – to declare a victory of sorts.

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