Comments on: How True Drew? Linzer Still Sees Obama As A Heavy Favorite

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:30:40 +0000

Pat – Although Drew doesn’t comment everyday, I think he’s updating the numbers regularly during these final few days.

By: Pat Robertson

Pat Robertson — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:29:22 +0000

Tell Drew to update his forecast a little more often if he wants regular viewers!

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 12:07:28 +0000

Marvin,
Great questions!
The important point about independents is that most of them are not, in fact, truly independent. Instead, they “lean” consistently in one partisan direction or the other. There are very few “pure” independents. It is true that, based on polls, Romney is doing slightly better than Obama among self-identified independents. So, for example, he leads in the latest several Washington Post/ABC poll among independents by some 16-20%. But as you might expect, his lead is largely due to support from Republican-leaning independents. Democratic-leaning independents favor Obama. Right now, the enthusiasm gap means more Republican-leaning independents are making it through the likely voter screens, giving Romney a polling boost. Will that translate into an actual turnout advantage? I’m not sure and, as you note, Hurricane Sandy is a confounding factor. I’m going to try to post on Sandy later today.

By: Marvin Carnes

Marvin Carnes — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 20:20:57 +0000

I have a question concerning the so-called “independent” voters who are making up their mind at the last minute. I see several references in various blogs and articles which suggest that they are breaking for Romney. Yet, I never see any polling data or any other proof that this is actually the truth. Can you speak to this variable that the Republicans are bragging about as the reason they think Romney will win?

Secondly, I am a FL voter. I tried to vote yesterday when early voting began, but here in Lee County, the early voting polling place was swamped with huge lines of voters trying to vote early. I stood in line for a while and then when I learned that folks in the next queue over from me had been in line for FOUR HOURS! and still had to queue through two more iterations of the the line, I decided to give up and try again on a week day (I’m retired and can afford to go during the work week). Question is this: will the long lines due to shorter early voter periods cause even longer lines on election day, thus causing many would-be voters like me (who, with a disability, cannot stand on my feet for four or more hours) to give up and not vote? Will this therefore benefit Romney or Obama? One could see how the hurricane effect and long lines might benefit Obama, since many of his voters have already voted early and would not be affected by the long lines or hurricane disruptions (e.g., power outages, closed polling places, etc). One could also see how it could help Romney as many of his voters will show up to vote no matter and not be dissuaded by inconveniences such as long lines or polling place consolidations, relocations, etc. What say you?

By: Sheldon Sloan

Sheldon Sloan — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 18:38:07 +0000

“Garbage in garbage out”. The conclusions are only as good as the data.

One of the problems I have in relying on composites is that except for Rasmussen and Gallup, they by and large massage their raw data with turnout from the previous presidential election.

Is there a person who reads this blog that really believes that the Democratic turnout for Obama in 2012 will anywhere equal the 2008 figures?

And, as Wayne Allyn Root points out, not one person in America who voted for McCain will vote for Obama, but lots of disillusioned Obama 2008 voters will vote for Romney.

Plus, the Independents are lining up for Romney; in 2008 they went heavily for Obama.

As you have pointed out, you have to know the questions asked by the pollsters and you need to know the weighting. At this point, the weighting becomes the result.

One wild card here: There is the infusion of Ralph Reed and his return from purgatory. Ralph has raised an estimated $10 to $12 Million to target 17 to 20 million Evangelistic Protestants who did not vote in 2008. These targeted voters are mostly in swing states of Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina. He is credited with recently pushing Bob McDonnell over the line by increasing the Evangelical turnout from 28% to 34% in Virginia. This is another factor that changes the modeling based upon 2008.

My last point is the propensity to vote, that has seen Republicans consistently stronger than Democrats in 2012 whereas in 2008 it was the opposite.

I am curious to see your prediction on Monday. I hope you will explain your conclusion in detail.