Comments on: When in Danger, When In Doubt, Run In Circles, Scream and Shout!

By: Eric McGhee

Eric McGhee — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 21:50:57 +0000

Pew’s numbers shifted even among registered voters (though they shifted more among LVs). So that leaves one of three possibilities, which are not mutually exclusive:

1) The Pew poll is an outlier due to sampling error
2) Dems became radically less likely to answer polls and Reps radically more
3) There’s some real opinion change going on

My kingdom for a panel study!

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 16:45:41 +0000

I will certainly post a forecast – you can be sure of that!

By: Ariel

Ariel — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 13:21:36 +0000

Thanks for the response. Time permitting will you post a forecast or is it a bit late in the day?

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:27:25 +0000

Matt – My guess is you were remembering all my previous brilliant predictions: Rick Perry doing well in the Republican primary, Rick Santorum going nowhere, Scott Brown getting trounced by Martha Coakley, etc.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:24:36 +0000

Ariel – Just to be clear, I don’t have an original model. Instead, I stand on the shoulders of those who do have models by, in effect, treating them as something like random draws from the underlying vote distribution, and then calculating my own forecast. The method has proved reliable in the past but, as they say in the investing business, one’s past record is no guarantee of future results! I should have had this out three weeks ago, but simply haven’t had the time as yet.