Monthly Archives: October 2012

Different Forecast, Same Result: More Political Science Models

Politico’s Dylan Byers created a minor dust-up in the twitterverse today when he posted an article that appeared to take a shot at the New York Times’  Nate Silver’s prognosticating skills. Byers writes, “Prediction is the name of Silver’s game, … Continue reading

How True Drew? Linzer Still Sees Obama As A Heavy Favorite

Emory University political scientist Drew Linzer, who created and runs the Votamatic website, paid a visit to Middlebury College last Wednesday to discuss why, based on his forecast model, he believes President Obama is still the heavy favorite to win … Continue reading

Ten Days And Counting: Where The Race Stands

My post today examining the State of the Race is up at the Economist’s Democracy in America website, but I will try to amplify my remarks in a post at this site later today.  In particular, I’ll try to reconcile … Continue reading

Live Blogging The Third Presidential Debate

8:40 Welcome all to another installment of Live Blogging The Presidential Debate!   I hope you can join in- we set a record for participation and visits on this blog during the last debate, and I hope we can break … Continue reading

Yes, Jim Fallows, Debates Do Matter (But Not As Much As You May Think)

In the aftermath of the first presidential debate, as swing state polls began to converge with the national tracking polls, former Carter speechwriter and Atlantic magazine correspondent James Fallows tweeted, “Maybe acads will stop saying debates never matter MT @ppppolls … Continue reading