Comments on: Early Voting, National Polls, Bachmann, Biden and…er….Hard Wood

By: Sheldon Sloan

Sheldon Sloan — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 02:01:54 +0000

Matt, I think your sense about Romney doing better than McCain in GOTV is simply reliant upon Mitt’s executive ability to organize an endeavor and make sure it is well executed.

Hold that thought; it will reveal itself all the way through this election. Mitt is a “hands on” manager who has repeatedly demonstrated that talent. Why would it fall apart now?

Remember, he has managed the money, a more and more significant part of this race, so well that Obama could run short and be flooded in the very states in which he has been trying to bury Mitt.

The sprint to the finish starts soon, just after the last debate, or perhaps sooner.

We will all see if Mitt has managed this race so that he has the sprint at the end and hits his stride as the election is upon us.

Obama has NEVER been in a really tough election where he was out spent. Until now.

By: Polemarchus

Polemarchus — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 00:06:08 +0000

Thanks for the reply. Makes sense. Is there any good academic research on your first point – maybe some analysis of the impact of the introduction of various early voting systems? Just curious.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sun, 23 Sep 2012 15:57:18 +0000

Polemarchus – Great question. Although a lot of people thought that turnout would go up as more states adopted versions of early voting, including all-mail elections,that hasn’t necessarily been the case. It turns out that most of the early voters are individuals who were likely to vote anyway, which makes sense if you think about it. In that sense, then, GOTV efforts would appear to be marginally more useful late in the race, in getting out the voters who may be undecided or not paying much attention or less inclined to vote in any case. Obviously, campaigns want strong ground games at all points in the race, which makes early voting GOTV critical. My sense is that the Romney campaign is better prepared at this than was McCain in 2008, but I based that mostly on anecdotal evidence.

By: Polemarchus

Polemarchus — Sun, 23 Sep 2012 15:39:22 +0000

Regarding GOTV operations: are they more effective the closer one gets to election day? Or are they better assets to have somewhat earlier in a race? In other words, are voters suggestible (possibly wrong choice of word) earlier or later?

My guess is that as election day approaches, minds are already made up about candidates, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually go-out-and-vote. Right? Lots of talk about ground game in the press this week made me wonder…