Monthly Archives: August 2012

The State of The Race: It Was The Best Of Times. It Was The Worst Of Times.

Today saw two separate and seemingly contrasting assessments of the state of the 2012 presidential election.  First, CNN released its latest presidential poll, and it showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney among a sample of registered voters by 52%-47%.  Later, … Continue reading

The 2012 Presidential Election Is Most Like This Previous Election

One of the recurring exercises in any presidential election year is the effort by pundits to find the most appropriate historical analogue among previous presidential elections.  What is deemed “appropriate”, however, is usually determined by whether the historical antecedent favors … Continue reading

An Electoral Landslide For Obama?

Michael Tomasky wrote a provocative online piece yesterday in the Daily Beast in which he speculated that Obama may, in fact, be on the verge of winning an electoral landslide.  Tomasky wrote, “The secret is the electoral college, and the … Continue reading

Obama Up By Ten? “Pew!” Say Republicans!

Romney supporters were up in arms regarding a Pew poll released two days ago of 1,956 registered voters that showed Obama leading Romney by 10%, 51%-41%. Much of the controversy centered on Pew’s sample of registered voters, which included 459 … Continue reading

No Bread, No Victory: Why Obama Might Lose in 2012

Another day, another political science forecast.  This one, Professor Doug Hibbs’ Bread and Peace model, is one of the more parsimonious forecast efforts around.  He essentially uses two variables – a weighted average of the per capita disposable personal income … Continue reading