Comments on: An Electoral Landslide For Obama?

By: RICK

RICK — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 01:36:44 +0000

Obama has won this election. Romney’s choice of VP indicates that he is very aware of this conclusion. He is simply trying to prevent a landslide Obama victory that could completely end the Republican party as it now stands. He will never show those mysterious tax forms as he knows that truth would certainly guarantee the feared landslide. So Romney will limp along and fight the good fight. But hear me well..this is a grand old time to be a Democrat.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 02:53:36 +0000

Rob,

I’m in agreement with your analysis – there will be some variation across states in how the economic fundamentals play out. But I still think the odds suggest that whoever wins the national vote will take the Electoral College vote as well.

By: Rob Mellen

Rob Mellen — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 13:46:41 +0000

I’m in general agreement with this analysis, though I do tend to give a bit more weight to economic concerns in some states than in others. I think undecideds in Ohio will make different calculations than undecideds in Florida. Ohio has a large blue-collar, union workforce whereas Florida is much different and mostly a service based economy (with the nation’s most unpopular governor!) and a huge senior citizen population. Is there a way to model the electoral college prediction while utilizing the individual characteristics of the voting populations in each battleground state? Then we have to account for the effect (or non-effect) of the various voter suppression efforts in many of the battleground states. If only a few thousand voters are denied access to the polls in some states it may change the electoral college outcome.