Comments on: Obama Up By Ten? “Pew!” Say Republicans! http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/04/obama-up-by-ten-pew-say-republicans/ A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:45:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Matthew Dickinson http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/04/obama-up-by-ten-pew-say-republicans/comment-page-1/#comment-28786 Matthew Dickinson Sat, 04 Aug 2012 23:29:35 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13059#comment-28786 Sheldon – Most of the polling outfits will switch over to likely voter samples after Labor Day, when their likely voter screen get a bit more accurate. You are right, however, that polls of likely voters are, generally, more accurate.

]]> By: Sheldon Sloan http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/04/obama-up-by-ten-pew-say-republicans/comment-page-1/#comment-28785 Sheldon Sloan Sat, 04 Aug 2012 23:05:55 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13059#comment-28785 Actually, aside from the Wonks, nobody really pays much attention to the polls until after Labor Day.

But, if you must be looking at early polls, I suggest those where they only poll “Likely Voters”. Year in and year out, they prove to be the most accurate. In a year such as this, many of the disillusioned who voted for “Hope and Change” received way too much change and have lost hope, and thus will likely not be voting.

Since the turnout will likely decide this election, likely voters will play a much larger role in the accuracy sweepstakes.

There are lots from which to choose; my favorite is Rasmussen, but reading more than one is always a good idea.

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