By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Wed, 11 Jul 2012 16:06:37 +0000

Matt,
From where I sit, you aren’t missing much, particularly in your advice to, in effect, play small ball rather than pursuing a legacy project. Although if he does want a legacy project, I’d guess immigration reform would be it, although I’m not confident given Bush’s precedent that Obama could successfully play the middle against both ends of the partisan spectrum. One area we didn’t discuss was foreign policy – does he decide to intervene in Syria (assuming the conflict is still ongoing)? What about Iran? As you note, it is not without historical precedent to achieve some big ticket successes in the second term – tax reform under Reagan is a great example. But that had bipartisan support, at least as finally crafted. There just aren’t very many issues that seem ripe for bipartisan support, unless there’s a return effort at the “grand bargain” Boehner and Obama allegedly came close to striking.

Lacking those big deals, I think you are right: smaller successes, like bending the cost curve on health care, setting up state exchanges, perhaps simplifying the tax code – these all seem better areas to exert some influence.

By: Matthew Beckmann

Matthew Beckmann — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 16:39:42 +0000

The W. case of Social Security is especially interesting because they were aware of the so-called “second term curse” but though that it reflected presidents’ unwillingness to be as ambitious in round two as in round one. Whoops.

Still, big things have happened in second terms, even with divided government (e.g., 1986 Tax Reform), and others have seen tantalizing glimmers of hope (e.g., Nixon/Kennedy and healthcare; Clinton/Gingrich and entitlement reform).

So what would be cool, I think, would be to try and clarify what President Obama’s “opportunity” window looks like? Here are the variables I’d suggest most important, including some you identify as well…

Congressional composition (divided government? ideological distribution?)
Economic growth
- this would boost the president’s approval
- it would also improve budget estimates
- it inoculates presidents against potential scandals
Exogenous events (e.g., any sort of big, unexpected event – think Iran or the EU, terrorism, etc.)

…and as for things Obama could control, I’d recommend…

Focus on domestic issues where
a. swing senators see the status quo as needing change (upcoming reauthorizations, for example)
b. Republican leaders are invested more as policymakers than as partisans

Stay willing to compromise

Prioritize executive actions – nominations (including recess appointments!), regulations, foreign policy

Notice, this is saying that much is out of the president’s control, and even on things he can control, there are still imposing constraints. Indeed, try to imagine an issue that swing senators find the status quo unacceptable and Republican leaders are not especially invested as partisans. Not easy to see, at least from over here in CA.

Assuming an Obama second term comes with divided government (and slim margins in both chambers), then, I’d recommend the White House seek 1000 small successes than attempting a defining “legacy” project. In practice I’m thinking lots of nickle-and-dime deals, typically within annual budgets, rather than a “grand bargain.”

This is more-or-less off the cuff, though it obviously builds from my work. What do you think, Matt? What am I missing? Where am I erring?

Hope you are great.
Matt

Comments on: What History Suggests A Second Obama Term Might Look Like

By: Matthew Dickinson

By: Matthew Beckmann