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	<title>Comments on: Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About SuperTuesday</title>
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	<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/03/04/clearing-up-some-misconceptions-about-supertuesday/</link>
	<description>A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics</description>
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		<title>By: Matthew Dickinson</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/03/04/clearing-up-some-misconceptions-about-supertuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-26075</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Mar 2012 14:31:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=12290#comment-26075</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Archer,

I very much appreciate the passion you bring to your analysis. Let me respond to your points.  First, this race has always been about delegates. That&#039;s how you win the nomination. I don&#039;t discount the short-term gain of winning a media cycle based on beating media expectations in any single contest or contests, but ultimately it&#039;s about getting delegates.  Don&#039;t let the media coverage distract you. That&#039;s what the candidates are focused on. They will quit, and Romney will lock this up, only based on doing the delegate math - not based on what pundits say &lt;em&gt;should&lt;/em&gt; happen. You should too.

I understand that the media is fixated on Ohio and the Santorum-Romney race. But if you are a regular reader here you will know that I have never considered Santorum a credible contender - his support to date (and he has really showed strength in one state - Michigan) - is a function of dissatisfaction by evangelicals and some Tea Partiers with Mitt, and not any real intensity for Santorum. The media will undoubtedly play up a Santorum loss in Ohio as the bursting of his bubble. But he never had a bubble in my book.  (I&#039;ve written previously why I didn&#039;t think Santorum &quot;blew it&quot; in Michigan.)

Cantor is part of the House Republican leadership. I see no evidence that he speaks for most of the partisans who participate in the nominating process - at least no more than say, Christie, or Pawlenty or any of the other dozens of &quot;party leaders&quot; who have jumped on the Mitt bandwagon.  Eventually, if trends continue and Romney outlasts everyone, the &quot;signal for people on the side lines to rally behind Mitt&quot; will prove right. I suspect that will be when the other candidates drop out. Then we will finally recognize the power of the endorsements. 

The race is like previous races has been repeated by several of my colleagues. I used 2008 to illustrate that it is not. But I could have used any number of previous nomination races.  The fact is that this one has already gone on longer than most people expected, with more candidates staying in the race, despite the oft-expressed views by the party leaders to rally behind Mitt. However, I think it is fair to criticize me by saying - who cares?  In the end the candidates will drop out, Romney will win, even if it takes longer.  That&#039;s a legitimate criticism. I happen to disagree with it - I think most knowledgeable people thought Romney would pick up strength and the field would be winnowed much more quickly than it has - presumably beginning right after New Hampshire. It didn&#039;t happen that way, at least not in my view.  I leave it up to you to decide whether that really matters or not.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Archer,</p>
<p>I very much appreciate the passion you bring to your analysis. Let me respond to your points.  First, this race has always been about delegates. That&#8217;s how you win the nomination. I don&#8217;t discount the short-term gain of winning a media cycle based on beating media expectations in any single contest or contests, but ultimately it&#8217;s about getting delegates.  Don&#8217;t let the media coverage distract you. That&#8217;s what the candidates are focused on. They will quit, and Romney will lock this up, only based on doing the delegate math &#8211; not based on what pundits say <em>should</em> happen. You should too.</p>
<p>I understand that the media is fixated on Ohio and the Santorum-Romney race. But if you are a regular reader here you will know that I have never considered Santorum a credible contender &#8211; his support to date (and he has really showed strength in one state &#8211; Michigan) &#8211; is a function of dissatisfaction by evangelicals and some Tea Partiers with Mitt, and not any real intensity for Santorum. The media will undoubtedly play up a Santorum loss in Ohio as the bursting of his bubble. But he never had a bubble in my book.  (I&#8217;ve written previously why I didn&#8217;t think Santorum &#8220;blew it&#8221; in Michigan.)</p>
<p>Cantor is part of the House Republican leadership. I see no evidence that he speaks for most of the partisans who participate in the nominating process &#8211; at least no more than say, Christie, or Pawlenty or any of the other dozens of &#8220;party leaders&#8221; who have jumped on the Mitt bandwagon.  Eventually, if trends continue and Romney outlasts everyone, the &#8220;signal for people on the side lines to rally behind Mitt&#8221; will prove right. I suspect that will be when the other candidates drop out. Then we will finally recognize the power of the endorsements. </p>
<p>The race is like previous races has been repeated by several of my colleagues. I used 2008 to illustrate that it is not. But I could have used any number of previous nomination races.  The fact is that this one has already gone on longer than most people expected, with more candidates staying in the race, despite the oft-expressed views by the party leaders to rally behind Mitt. However, I think it is fair to criticize me by saying &#8211; who cares?  In the end the candidates will drop out, Romney will win, even if it takes longer.  That&#8217;s a legitimate criticism. I happen to disagree with it &#8211; I think most knowledgeable people thought Romney would pick up strength and the field would be winnowed much more quickly than it has &#8211; presumably beginning right after New Hampshire. It didn&#8217;t happen that way, at least not in my view.  I leave it up to you to decide whether that really matters or not.</p>
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		<title>By: ArcherTroy</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/03/04/clearing-up-some-misconceptions-about-supertuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-26071</link>
		<dc:creator>ArcherTroy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Mar 2012 06:26:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=12290#comment-26071</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. Ohio IS the most important race in Super Tuesday...Since when has this primary EVER been about collecting delegates? From the start it&#039;s been about who &quot;wins&quot; the state. It&#039;s been all about the momentum (Mitt-mentum) While Georgia does have the most delegates, Ohio is a battleground state because it&#039;s where Santorum is making his last stand as a Romney contender. 

We know who will win Georgia..The question is whether Newt breaks 50% and whether Romney is able to elbow out Santorum. For political junkies, this is interesting - but for the rest of the population, who the F*** cares. &quot;Georgia&#039;s capacity to surprise&quot;...lol.

2. It&#039;s not always HOW MANY endorsements you get...its WHO is endorsing you. Cantor isn&#039;t some no-name congressman, he&#039;s an extremely well respected house leader (defactor leader ;)...) -  his endorsement isn&#039;t for personal political gain or publicity - it&#039;s his signal that its time for the people on the side lines to rally behind Mitt and end this. Expect more side-line republicans to endorse. Cantor opened the door.

3. &quot;This race is just like 2008&quot;...what? who is saying this. I don&#039;t think I&#039;ve ever heard this..ever.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. Ohio IS the most important race in Super Tuesday&#8230;Since when has this primary EVER been about collecting delegates? From the start it&#8217;s been about who &#8220;wins&#8221; the state. It&#8217;s been all about the momentum (Mitt-mentum) While Georgia does have the most delegates, Ohio is a battleground state because it&#8217;s where Santorum is making his last stand as a Romney contender. </p>
<p>We know who will win Georgia..The question is whether Newt breaks 50% and whether Romney is able to elbow out Santorum. For political junkies, this is interesting &#8211; but for the rest of the population, who the F*** cares. &#8220;Georgia&#8217;s capacity to surprise&#8221;&#8230;lol.</p>
<p>2. It&#8217;s not always HOW MANY endorsements you get&#8230;its WHO is endorsing you. Cantor isn&#8217;t some no-name congressman, he&#8217;s an extremely well respected house leader (defactor leader <img src='http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> &#8230;) &#8211;  his endorsement isn&#8217;t for personal political gain or publicity &#8211; it&#8217;s his signal that its time for the people on the side lines to rally behind Mitt and end this. Expect more side-line republicans to endorse. Cantor opened the door.</p>
<p>3. &#8220;This race is just like 2008&#8243;&#8230;what? who is saying this. I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;ve ever heard this..ever.</p>
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		<title>By: George Jaeger</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/03/04/clearing-up-some-misconceptions-about-supertuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-26068</link>
		<dc:creator>George Jaeger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2012 20:28:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=12290#comment-26068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Disheartened  followers of the Republican spectacular might find comfort in Bill Moyers recent segment  on the profound disconnect between these campaigns and the realities the winner may actually have to face.   See http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-where-movies-end-and-politics-begins/

Warmly recommended anti-dote...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Disheartened  followers of the Republican spectacular might find comfort in Bill Moyers recent segment  on the profound disconnect between these campaigns and the realities the winner may actually have to face.   See <a href="http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-where-movies-end-and-politics-begins/" rel="nofollow">http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-where-movies-end-and-politics-begins/</a></p>
<p>Warmly recommended anti-dote&#8230;</p>
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