Comments on: Why Republicans Should Embrace Operation Hilarity

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:48:12 +0000

Jack,

In a close election, you don’t need many Democrats to turn out to make a difference, assuming they all vote for Santorum. There was about 7% Democrat turnout in 2008 in the Republican party. If they can get it a bit higher, it might be enough to put Santorum over the top. There are still several states down the road that have open primaries (my own state of Vermont is one) – I’ll try to get the final numbers for you. As for electability, see my previous comment to Owen’s question.

Glad you are enjoying the blog – hope you can participate tonight in the live blog!

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:42:11 +0000

Owen,
First, keep in mind that my operating assumption behind the brokered convention is that none of the current candidates has enough delegates to clinch the nomination outright. So, they’ve had their chance, thus invalidating any prior commitments from endorsers. Everyone is now a free agent. Second, these people who declined to run did so expecting one of these others to clinch the deal. They did not, so all bets are off. Third, at this point who can say no when the party calls? You can say you aren’t doing this out of ambition – you are doling this for the good of the party! In any case, there are plenty of potential candidates: think Colin Powell, Condi Rice, or Curt Schilling!

By: Owen Witek

Owen Witek — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:41:54 +0000

Professor Dickinson,

Do you think someone who initially turned down the opportunity to run would be perceived as a strong candidate? I understand the conservative support for someone like Daniels or Christie. However, by repeatedly turning down calls for them to run prior to the convention, I feel that their commitment to running a strong campaign and their overall desire to be President would be called into question. It seems like a better brokered-convention nominee would be someone who was relatively outside the list of “dream candidates” for the GOP and thus never made very public statements about their desire not to run. The problem for Republicans is that I can’t think of someone who falls into that criteria but also still has the conservative backing to win at the convention. What are your thoughts?

Owen

By: Jack

Jack — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 18:26:58 +0000

This really interesting to see the “operation” happening, the cross tabs of the latest polls seem to show that indeed with the democrats really showing their support for Santorum. However, isn’t it somewhat unlikely that they will actually head out to vote today?

I understand that in Michigan the democrats can vote in this primary, but how many more states down the line will have a similar situation? Also speaking of the brokered convention, could you see Gov Christie really running after praising Romney on CNN and elsewhere? Would’t the fact that a new candidate supporting one of the current ones themselves unelectable and a huge barrier to get over in the general election?

PS. I really enjoy your blog and also the live blogging of debates, you and the economist liveblogging are great fun