Comments on: What Really Happened in South Carolina, and What It Means For The Rest Of The Race http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/ A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:45:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Matthew Dickinson http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-23986 Matthew Dickinson Mon, 23 Jan 2012 21:36:57 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=11394#comment-23986 @Rob – I think the SuperPacs were probably helpful to Newt in terms of returning the media playing field to a more level tilt than we saw in Iowa, where poor Newt was buried under an avalanche of negative advertising to a far greater degree than any other candidate. But I also think advertising is probably better at activating latent predispositions more than it is in changing people’s minds from one candidate to another. I also think, like you, that Newt had a built-in advantage in his neighboring state, one bolstered by greater ideological affinity between Newt and the voters. Keep in mind that in NH about half the voters were independents or Democrats who were never going to vote for Newt over Mitt. In South Carolina the tables were reversed. All a long way of saying that ads work only if they have material to use that resonates with the voters’ predispositions. That’s my read, but it is based as much on intuition as it is on any careful data analysis.

]]> By: Matthew Dickinson http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-23960 Matthew Dickinson Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:36:47 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=11394#comment-23960 Dale,

As the Patriots discovered, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good!

]]> By: Primàries republicanes: coses que passen a Carolina del Sud | Cercle Gerrymandering http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-23958 Primàries republicanes: coses que passen a Carolina del Sud | Cercle Gerrymandering Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:12:46 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=11394#comment-23958 [...] de dissabte podrien obrir una escletxa en l’estratègia de Romney o simplement quedar-se en un accident. Ho veurem a Florida el proper 31 de [...]

]]> By: Rob Mellen http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-23957 Rob Mellen Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:29:19 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=11394#comment-23957 Matt,

Excellent analysis of the SC situation. I had expected Newt to receive the ‘favorite son’/neighboring state bump there myself and called his victory about three weeks ago, though I remain shocked by the magnitude of it. What role do you think the Super PAC’s and their unlimited, ‘uncoordinated’ expenditures played in Newt’s win in SC and will they give him the opportunity to compete in FL (a much more expensive, less conservative state) with the well-funded Romney?

Nice call on the Patriots! As a native New Englander and long time Pats fan I’m hoping for a little revenge for, well, you know.

Cheers,

Rob

]]> By: Dale Steinacker http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/01/22/what-really-happened-in-south-carolina-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-23943 Dale Steinacker Mon, 23 Jan 2012 06:19:58 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=11394#comment-23943 Unfortunately, I have to congratulate you on your football prediction as well as your primary prediction.

Congratulations! Darnit!

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