Comments on: Why Is Gingrich Still In The Race? There’s Really No Debate

By: Arnim Johnson

Arnim Johnson — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 21:00:43 +0000

I agree that Gringrich being perceived as a winner is going to be beneficial to his advancement. I also concur with your assessment that “conservative values” is a public relations trope. Most black people I know don’t take the white populace’s professions of Christianity and conservative values seriously, having been enslaved by Christians for two and half centuries, and terrorized for another. The South has always been full of pious hypocrites, sexual and otherwise, and one must never forget that the Republican reaction to the liberalism that prevailed from 1930′s through the 1960′s began with Nixon’s Southern strategy. We are dealing with the remnants of the Confederacy propounded by their direct descendents. That’s with whom the Republicans cast their lot in 1966. They joined forces with Northern working class ethnics, now known as Reagan democrats, who historically have viewed blacks as labor competitors and have now expanded that impulse to include Latin and other immigrants of colour. I am personlly hoping that the Republicans fall back on their 1876 playbook, and see which of the candidates can “out nigger” the other a la white politicians in the post Brown v. Board South. Most black people I know suspect that this is going to be the most racist campaign ever, once the Republican nominee is settled. The code words are already being bandied about with impunity. I’m mildly optimistic that it won’t work this time, though it has almost always been successful in the past. I am really looking forward to seeing your data pertaining to these issues, if it exists, or if you can concoct w working theory on the place of race in this campaign supported by data. I’m looking past South Carolina to Florida. It’s a Southern state; it has a substantial population of older Jewish voters for whom Obama is anathema on the Israel/Iran issue, yet who are old time New Deal Democrats; Latin Americans, many of the most powerful and influential of are reactionary white Cubans, but whom many of the other Latins resent as being elitist, racist, and moreover privileged in terms of immigration issues; it has a measurable black population subject to voter suppression and not economically influential relatively speaking; and it has a substantial population of younger voters. It is a state that more accurately represents the diversity of America as compared to Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina. I fully expected the Newt to surge in Carolina, being a Georgia boy and conversant in Southern Negro speak. Furthermore, I saw all the sequescentennial celebrations of the commencement of the Civil War enacted in Charleston, in which no black people were anywhere to be seen – not even as enslaved people. The ground was ripe for race baiting. For extrapolation purposes, I think Florida bears close scrutiny because it will give an indication as to the viability of the traditional Democratic Party constituencies. The Republian conversation will most likely move to the Mideast and Israel’s place therein; Cuba and Communism, which will seq into the Horatio Alger mythology of making it in America; they will tread gingerly around immigration; pump religion, and cast a more than a few aspersions on the Negroes. We’ll see if it works.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 19:38:17 +0000

Arnim,

Great comment, one that deserve a separate post in response. The most important point you made, I think, is how difficult it is to poll on the issue of race because of several factors: 1) people often give what they believe to be socially acceptable responses 2) the influence of race is often subtle, and operates on the subconscious level 3) race plays out politically in different ways; its influence varies in intensity and is not one directional. Because of the difficulty in measuring racial influence, it leaves the field open for people to make assertions about racial beliefs and political outcomes that are difficult to assess empirically. Even so, there are some fascinating efforts by political scientists to tease out the relative influence of race versus class as it pertained to the 2008 election. But untangling the influences are difficult. You may not be surprised to know that studies have come to different conclusions, with some arguing race cost Obama votes in 2008 and others saying it had had little influence or was even a net benefit to him. I expect we are going to revisit this issue in depth in the coming months no matter who the Republicans nominate. In anticipation of this, let me begin the conversation by saying that the polling data does indicate that, so far, Republican voters in the early caucus and primaries seem primarily concerned about choosing someone who can beat Obama, even more so than having a nominee who shares voters conservative values. You might think that this favors Romney, but in South Carolina recent polls are showing that Gingrich is viewed as almost as electable as Romney! Winning, it seems, breeds the perception that one is a winner…. Again, however, we need to be very careful not to overreact to the results in South Carolina, not matter what the media hype.

I know I haven’t addressed your other point re: the relative influence of class vs. race among independents and liberals – bear with me. I’ll see if I can dig up survey data at some point.

By: Arnim Johnson

Arnim Johnson — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 18:32:39 +0000

How do you figure race is going to be a factor in the Republican selection. As you know people’s true racial feelings are sometimes not even acknowledged by participants in polls, nor are conscious contributing factors in people’s opinions. For many black folks such as myself, this election is a replay of the election of 1876, whereby black formerly enslaved people were stripped of their political rights in the culmination of the Redemption. The Newt is blatantly pursuing that path, and although many say its a short sighted strategy, I’m really not convinced it won’t work in the end. Romney has the visuals from central casting for the role of Great White Hope, but not the “fire in the belly” to call a “spade a spade”, confront Obama, and ‘put him in his place”, as the party stallwarts would say. Of course being 62 and growing up during the Civil Rights movement, I am aware that the nation has purportedly evolved past a simply black and white lens of viewing politics. However, I’m skeptical of the liberal white/independent voter when it comes to privileging class and substance over race. The abolitionists retreated to the North in 1876 and left the black folks to fend for themselves. I think the 40% of the white electorate who would not vote for Obama under any circumstances and are the Republican base are going to empower the Newt to the extent necessary to force Romney as far right as is possible. If Romney doesn’t go there, I think that 40% is enough to take the nominating process to a brokered convention. Race is, of course, the unspoken elephant in the room, and is a completely irrational factor that doesn’t manifest well in polling data. However, it has probably been the most pervasive and powerful force in American political and social history. I don’t see why it should stop being so in 2012. Of course, I’m willing to concede that things have changed, and five years ago I would not have predicted an Obama presidency. Yet, the response to his presidency has been utterly predictable if one studies the Reconstruction and Redemption periods of American history. And, I do know historical analogies are never exact, but we can learn from history and sometimes it can be predictive.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 16:44:42 +0000

Arnim,

Nationally, Romney still leads in the polls, but a recent Gallup survey shows Newt gaining there as well, although he still trailed Romney by 10% as of two days ago. I expect, if Gingrich wins today, he will close that gap even more. But it’s not clear how national figures translate into support within the next several states. In Florida, where they vote on Jan. 31, Romney still has a sizable lead – but that may shrink in the aftermath of a Gingrich win. Then we go to a couple of caucus states – Nevada and Maine, where organization and intensity of preference counts. Paul could do well in both states. All a long way of saying that it is difficult to gauge Gingrich’s support across different regions, because it will likely vary depending on how he does in the next several races.

I haven’t really played out the scenarios by which we might see a brokered convention. My gut reaction says the possibility is very very very low – but that’s not based on a careful analysis. I’m working on that. Here’s a source for the Gallup national poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152126/Romney-National-Lead-Down-Points.aspx

By: Arnim Johnson

Arnim Johnson — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 11:14:58 +0000

Does Gringrich have much support among Republicans outside of the Confederacy, and its Western offshoots? Will Romney sweep the Republican primaries in the Midwest and the coasts? Brokered convention, or not?