Comments on: Who Wears the Mitts In This Family? http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/ A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:45:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Peter Baumann http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/comment-page-1/#comment-21566 Peter Baumann Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:19:56 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=10259#comment-21566 Professor,

Couldn’t agree more! I don’t see a way Huntsman can beat Romney — he will forever be “Mitt-lite” as you put it. But, if Gingrich stumbles I do think some support will turn to Huntsman. Not enough to give him a snowballs chance of winning the nomination, but enough that I felt comfortable ranking him higher than his current polling.

This race is like “Survivor,” and I don’t think Huntsman can win, but I also don’t see him being voted off the island a la Cain or Perry.

]]> By: Matthew Dickinson http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/comment-page-1/#comment-21525 Matthew Dickinson Sun, 04 Dec 2011 15:14:10 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=10259#comment-21525 Peter – I think that’s Huntsman’s calculation as well – that Gingrich is bound to stumble. The question is – why does Huntsman become the anti-Mitt when in many respects he is Mitt-lite? At this point I’m just not sure the Tea Party faction will ever buy into a Huntsman candidacy. But there are signs that he’s gaining a bit of support in New Hampshire. However, have you seen this guy up close? He doesn’t seem to excite people.

]]> By: Peter Baumann http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/comment-page-1/#comment-21523 Peter Baumann Sun, 04 Dec 2011 14:29:07 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=10259#comment-21523 I can’t speak for everyone else, but my being “bullish” on Huntsman comes less from any thought that GOP primary voters will come to their senses, and more from the fact that he’s the last Romney alternative left if Gingrich gets derailed. Already the George Will’s of the world are starting to take a closer look at him, and if Gingrich stumbles I expect a flurry of columns and on-air editorials explaining the depth of his conservative credentials. That being said, I still think the saddest commentary on American politics is someone who is that smart and experienced — not to mention who carries a far more conservative record than Gingrich or Romney — can barely poll outside the margin of error simply because he refuses to engage in divisive politics.

]]> By: Matthew Dickinson http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/comment-page-1/#comment-21502 Matthew Dickinson Sat, 03 Dec 2011 14:32:23 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=10259#comment-21502 Orion -

Wow – actual percentages too! The rest of you better step up your game… .

I think you made a great point re: Paul – his committed band of followers is likely to give him some delegates under the proportional delegate allocation rule the Republicans have adopted, but keep in mind that it is in place only for the early primaries. If this fight goes the distance, Paul may lose delegates, even if he maintains support, in the latter contests.

Finally, I dislike having my name in any sentence that includes the phrase “drinking the koolaid.” Couldn’t you just say you were persuaded by the wisdom of my argument?

]]> By: Orion http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/12/01/who-wears-the-mitts-in-this-family-its-time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/comment-page-1/#comment-21500 Orion Sat, 03 Dec 2011 13:17:44 +0000 http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=10259#comment-21500 Ok. I’m convinced on the polling arc question and am drinking the coolaid Matt. One question I have is about the time lag in polling data (i.e., Cain still shows up with 10% recently). It seems like it has taken people almost two weeks to realize Gingrich was solidly the frontrunner in the race. With only a few weeks left it seems that and the GOP does not have enough time to seriously evaluate his general election electability (i.e., he will be their weakest general election candidate since Dewey). The conservative clearly don’t like Rommney, so Gingrich is their only feasible option unless another conservative jumps in to save the day.

Irrespective of the nominee, I think the same basic narrative holds: this will be the year the GOP establishment lost control party and the populists have their “Mondale” moment in nominating Dewey,..no McGovern,… no Grinch?

Second narrative: lamestream media and pudits totally miss the importance of the most crucial rule change of all-a conversion to PR distribution of delegates-which allows Gingrich to win the nomination in carrying pluralities in the south and conservative states, and Paul to run a strong third place insurgency campaign.

Picks (predicted percentage of delegates):

1. Grinch (35%)
2. Romney (25%)
3. Paul (18%)
4. Huntsman (7%)
5. Bachman (5%)
6. Perry (withdrawn)
7. Santorum (withdrawn)
8. Cain (withdraws this weekend)

Chicago Boys salivate at the prospect of a Gingrich matchup and GOP misses golden opportunity to steal one from incumbent….

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