Comments on: Obama, Unemployment and Reelection: What I Think I Know…

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 20:00:15 +0000

Avery – I think the debt resolution debate will almost immediately fade from public consciousness once a deal is struck, and the focus will increasingly be on jobs and the economy. Obama has to hope that he can a) remind voters that he inherited this mess and b) ask for patience to turn it around. The problem is he made missteps early on by promising too much regarding his ability to turn the economy around, and that will come back to haunt him during the campaign. And it’s not clear that he can turn the economy around. There are lots of indicators, beginning with the sluggish housing market, that suggest we are entering an extended period of very high unemployment that will resist most government-based efforts to turn this around.

Roosevelt, who came into office facing an economy in even worse shape than the current one, capitalized on a couple of factors. First, the media cycle – dominated by print news – was more forgiving which allowed him more time to turn things around. Second, by the time he ran for reelection he could point to some economic progress, even though the unemployment figures were still horrendous. In this respect he resembles Reagan. Both won landslide reelection in large part because the public liked the direction the economy was trending.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 14:44:37 +0000

Bob – Well, I suppose you could call it a fudge factor. I prefer to think of it as speaking precisely. If we want to forecast whether Obama will win reelection in 2012 then I suppose you are right. A lot of factors beyond unemployment that I don’t discuss will likely come into play (although, as I’ll discuss in a future post, there’s not as many as you might think; elections really turn on a few well-known “fundamentals.”) But in the narrower context of the specific post regarding whether unemployment levels, by themselves, influence election outcomes – remember, Masket says they don’t – I think I’ll stand by my choice of words. Remember, I wasn’t discussing whether Obama would win reelection per se, but instead whether, and to what degree, his reelection depends on unemployment levels. I hope that is a distinction with a difference – but maybe I’m just fudging it!

By: Bob Johnson

Bob Johnson — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 14:19:32 +0000

Matt,

When you say “I strongly believe that, all other factors being equal, the higher the unemployment rate the lower Obama’s election chances”, the “all other factors being equal” leaves room enough for the 52d Airborne to march through. It seems to me that your qualifier is the ultimate fudge factor. Are “other factors” ever “all equal”?

Bob

By: Avery White

Avery White — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 13:29:21 +0000

Two questions:

1. How do you see the unemployment rate and the economy in general interacting with the current “brinksmanship” Republican strategy regarding the budget and the debt limit? Do you think Obama is capable of changing the public’s focus from his inability to fix the entire economy to the Republicans? And even if he can, is this change of perception enough to overcome the logic of “its the fundamentals stupid?”

2. Since FDR is the one who apparently bucked the trend, might you briefly describe how he managed to do so? Considering all the comparisons, apt or not, being drawn between the current economic unpleasantness and the Great Depression, do you see Obama being able to replicate whatever it is FDR did to take advantage of the situation?