Comments on: How Democrats Can Minimize Their Losses on November 2

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 17:42:54 +0000

Zach – yes, I agree: Senate races tend to be more competitive and more likely to be driven by national issues. It’s harder for a Senate candidate to run on casework and constituency service, particularly in large states with a heterogeneous population. Lee and Oppenheimer make this point abundantly clear in their book “Sizing Up the Senate” which looks at the impact of state size on Senate races. They find that Senators in large states have a more difficult time conducting casework and exercising all those constituency services that help insulate House incumbents. That’s one reason why large-state Senate races are more competitive. In those instances, it may make sense to nationalize the race, as Sestak is doing in the hope of mobilizing the base. Of course, neither Sestak or Toomey is an incumbent Senator, but your argument still holds.

Excellent point.

By: Zach Drennen

Zach Drennen — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 17:29:08 +0000

I’ve noticed more of a focus on local issues as well, but on the other hand Sestak had a very memorable ad in Pennsylvania comparing his unpopular votes in Congress to cleaning up after his dog – necessary to fix the mistakes of the Bush era. He even puts a picture of Bush up next to Toomey. Now his support seems to be surging and the race is statistically tied, which suggests that a national strategy might be more effective for Senate candidates.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 14:57:28 +0000

Martin – Great question. I confess that I haven’t looked far enough ahead at this point to give you an adequate answer. Some of it depends, I suspect, on the decisions the Republican-controlled House and Democratically-controlled Senate make during the next two years (was that a prediction?) Do they extend the Bush tax cuts? Probably yes. Repeal portions of the health care bill? Probably not. Reform entitlement programs? I’m doubtful. But the biggest factor, I suspect, is whether the economy begins to create jobs. If so, that will do more to help Obama reach Joe the Plumber than any specific policy. The real challenge for Obama, politically, will be how to deal with an opposition-controlled House. If he takes a page out of the Clinton playbook, he could move Right on some policies (entitlement reform, maybe? Extending Bush tax cuts) while wielding the veto to prevent Republicans from moving the country right in other areas (repealing health care).

By: Martin

Martin — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 05:55:23 +0000

Matt,

Very insightful post. Thank you.

Do you see any possibility that in 2012 Democrats can in fact craft a compelling message for Joe the Plumber? the discouraging takeaway from 2010 is that when politicians attempt to reason with Joe (“We told you so”), even in the midst of crisis, he yawns. As you point out, policy, causal attribution, and message content don’t much move him. What could Dems do in 2012 to restore some confidence in their approach?

Martin