My guesstimate of the Tea Party support among the general public (not just Delaware voters) is based on polling data. A good summary of it can be found at this site: http://www.pollingreport.com/politics.htm (go to the Tea Party link). Note that the level of “support” varies depending on whether the survey asks whether one agrees with the Tea Party “on the issues” – here support is around 34%, or whether one asks respondents if they consider themselves a supporter of the Tea Party movement – here the numbers drop to 28% or so, depending on the poll. If voters are asked to choose which group among several listed (Democrats, Republicans, Green, Tea Party, etc.) best represents their views, the Tea Party pulls down maybe 15%. So “support” varies depending on question wording as well as the sample, but 20% support nationwide, plus or minus 5%, is probably a fair estimate right now. Keep in mind that the 5% support for O’Donnell does not mean she was opposed by 95% of Delaware voters – independents and Democrats couldn’t vote in the Republican primary.

Whether that 20% Tea Party support in surveys (give or take) will translate to an equal level of support at the polls is another matter. As you note, there is still a substantial portion of the electorate – 17% in one recent poll – that claim to know nothing at all about the Tea Party movement, and another 24% that knows only a little, although these numbers have dropped since April. Still, it leaves open the possibility that, as you say, the Tea Party movement may lose support as more people start paying attention to it, and to the choices in the upcoming election. Much will depend, I think, on who turns out, what candidate choices they face and whether this election turns more on a referendum on the party in power or as a choice between two candidates.

I agree with your argument that the middle 20% of voters swing even “wave” elections, so the next question is whether we know to what extent the 20-30% of the electorate that is Tea Party overlaps with the moderate middle 20% of voters that are the kingmakers? To me, they are not the moderates and independents that swing elections (although Dems have big problems there as well). They are the hardened GOP base in the guise of a grass roots movement.

While I agree that the Tea Party is a force to be reckoned with and will not go away soon, I am not convinced that it is a moderate broad-based coalition capable of controlling the outcomes of general elections. Moreover, I think this is an instance where the media narrative was correct that they have potentially killed the GOP’s already slim chances for taking the senate. Nominees in Nevada and Delaware are so extreme that it is hard to see them winning unless the electorate is so angry that they will embrace any outsider, no matter how crazy they are. I also don’t think the purification campaign by the Tea Party will help the GOP be the moderate broad-based umbrella party that they must be to be nationally competitive in the future. Given the economy and a midterm election year, the Dems were bound to lose seats this year. However, I think it is a mistake to view GOP gains this year as a indicator of the growing national strength of a conservative grass roots movement. To me, the alternative hypothesis that this movement of hard core activists hurts the GOPs long-term competitiveness is equally plausible.

According to the data above, in Delaware, all Republicans only make up 29 percent of registered voters. And of those, the Tea Party’s vote here was 5 percent (O’Donnell’s percentage of the vote), not 20 percent. Is it right to suggest that 20 percent of all voters will cast out reason and embrace anarchy? Note also that while polls show Democrats with approval ratings in the low 30s, Republicans fare even worse with approval ratings in the 20s. It’s not likely that moderate Republicans or independents will side with anarchists who love to rant but offer no solutions.

While the public is angry, much of that anger is misplaced. The challenge Dems face is to direct that anger to ideas that have some hope of solving the problem and point out the hypocrisy of their own rhetoric — ie., reduce the deficit but extend all tax cuts. If the Tea Party offers no solutions more realistic than today’s rhetoric and even conservative Republicans are shying away from candidates like O’Donnell, is the assumption correct that they’ll vote to sabotage their party and the nation by electing candidates even Karl Rove says are unfit to run?

No doubt mid-term elections historically favor the party out of power, but this current wave of anger is more misdirected than any I’ve seen in 40 years. Because of that, the opportunity for a correction in public opinion the closer we get to the election (as more people become tuned in to what the Tea Party is advocating as policy and the whacky consequences that could occur if they obtain any political power) the more active opponents will become and the more cautious moderates and conservatives will be when casting their votes.

Caveat: I hope that’s not a moderate (me) rationalizing the current political mood; I hope as a nation we have not drifted that far beyond the realm of reason.