Comments on: Palin for President? “Refudiating” Her Critics Once More

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 13:52:38 +0000

Marty – I don’t think we are in disagreement here. I don’t know how much the desire to make money played into Palin’s decision to resign but her ability to do so is directly linked, I think, to the possibility that she might run for president. Lacking that dimension, her ability to raise money is diminished because she’s simply a less interesting person – the ex-governor of Alaska, rather than a potential presidential candidate in 2012. So the two motives – whatever the relative weight one puts on them – both point in the same direction: resigning the governorship was a stroke of genius, not the career-ending move that many predicted.

By: Marty Lapidus

Marty Lapidus — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 12:07:16 +0000

Matt, you write, “…the decision to quit the governor’s position looks like a stroke of pure genius – whether or not she actually plans to run for President. To begin, it freed her to raise money much more easily than she could have done if she remained in Alaska.”

But you overlook what I believe is a fundamental element in Palin’s decision–to make a ton of money. And that ties directly into her relations with the Mainstream Media, i.e., Fox News. So it was fundamentally both a personal and power decision.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 16:53:44 +0000

Charlie – As longtime readers know, I am skeptical that endorsements make as big a difference as the media often implies. I don’t think I’d go as far as you do in saying “Palin’s credibility has been undermined by her failed endorsement” of Ayotte. In fact, 38% of those surveyed said it would make them more likely to vote for Ayotte, while 28% said less likely and 34% said it would make no difference. This is hardly failure! And if Ayotte goes on to win the primary – and she’s way ahead in the polls, although there is a month and a half before it is held – the media spin will be that another one of Palin’s endorsed candidates won – whether or not her endorsement really mattered all that much.

I find more to agree with in your assessment of her 2012 presidential prospects although again, it is far too early to have any confidence in our projections. Nonetheless, the PPP poll does ask Republican voters about the various potential Republican presidential nominees. Not surprisingly, the favorite son Romney leads everyone with 31% support. Palin is bunched with four others (Paul, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Huckabee) all of whom are separated by amounts that fall within the poll’s 4% margin of error. Keeping in mind that Paul isn’t likely to run, all Palin needs to do is secure the “not Romney” vote in NH to stay alive.

Likely? I don’t think so. Impossible? No.

By: Charlie Arnowitz

Charlie Arnowitz — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 04:11:17 +0000

Palin’s credibility has been undermined by her failed endorsement of Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. A PPP survey this week demonstrated that the endorsement “negatively impacted the opinion of almost a third of Republicans and over half of all New Hampshire voters.” 65% of moderates were LESS likely to support a Palin-endorsed candidate. Palin’s brand might play well among primary voters in Iowa and South Carolina, but without even a top 3 finish in NH, she’ll be pretty damaged and the media storyline that she is the “inevitable” nominee just won’t happen. And if she does somehow manage to win the nomination, the fact that she plays so poorly among independent voters in a swing state like NH translates to electoral failures across the board. She certainly shouldn’t be counted out, especially financially, but she has to cut the alienating rhetoric if she ever wants to be a truly national candidate and not a sectional one.