Comments on: Rahmbo’s Role: A Recipe for a Short Tenure?

By: Jeff Garofano

Jeff Garofano — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 01:27:48 +0000

Just out:

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Could-Rahm-Emanuel-Really-Become-Chicago-Mayor-3298

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Thu, 01 Apr 2010 01:58:07 +0000

Jeff,

Volker’s tight money policy wrung inflation out of the economy, but the recession was also caused by the bond market’s negative reaction to the structural deficits built into Reagan’s first budget. That contributed to the economic slowdown as well.

By: Jeff Garofano

Jeff Garofano — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 03:42:24 +0000

Prof. Dickinson,

I might be wrong, because I don’t know the period that well, but wasn’t the recession at the beginning of Reagan’s term caused by Chairman Volcker enacting monetary discipline to combat stagflation? I don’t know anything about Reagan’s economic package, but my guess is that they usually aren’t large enough to affect broader macro forces (Obama’s stimulus had to be nearly a trillion dollars, and some say even that wasn’t enough).

Another thought this post gives me is that, as commercials for investments are constantly warning us, past performance is not to be taken as an indicator of future success. I agree that it’s probably one of our best proxies, but in a way, we have to evaluate the fundamentals of the conditions at hand. This probably results in a more value-based judgment (e.g. is Rahm a skilled operator in a manner that is distinguishable from the ways in which the job has ever been done?).

A funny insider-criticism by Andrew Sullivan of our favorite academic subject (and my major):

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/03/why-does-no-one-listen-to-political-scientists.html

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 19:40:10 +0000

Paul – Interesting analysis. It’s a reminder that the partisan composition of the House and Senate doesn’t tell the whole legislative story; we need to know the ideological breakdown as well. As you correctly point out, Democrats enjoyed huge majorities for much of the period from 1936 through the 1990′s, but the size of the partisan majority masked the fact that ideologically there were many Democrats who were closer to the Republican Party on some issues. Something similar, but on a smaller scale, exists today with the Blue Dog Democrats, who on fiscal matters are somewhat closer to Republicans. This lends credence, I think, to those who say that the Progressive wish for a more liberal policy agenda may have had even less chance of success.

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 19:34:10 +0000

Jack – Great observation. In that respect as well, Emanuel’s tenure might compare most closely to Baker’s during the start of Reagan’s presidency, when the economy went into a recession after Reagan’s initial economic package passed Congress. Baker was able to survive the recession (and the loss of Republican seats in the 1982 midterms). If, as some indicators suggest, the current economic contraction has ended, Emanuel might well pull a Baker and weather the storm too.