Ok, I’m going to take a short break and see if I can get some snowshoeing in before settling in to watch returns. Polls close at 8. We’ll see how soon after that the race is called. I think it will be some time. You can look for results as they come at the Massachusetts election results page (assuming it doesn’t crash!).
In the meantime, following up on my earlier post, I’ve pasted in a somewhat useful graphic that shows the relative support for McCain and Obama in 2008 across the state (source: Swing State Project.)
Having lived in the state most of my life and covered politics there, I have a decent idea of what you should be looking for as polls close. Moving from west to east (left to right on the map), it goes like this:
Western Mass is sparsely populated in much of the Berkshires, but there’s a big population center in Springfield at the southern portion of the Connecticut River Valley. Brown needs to do well with low-income, ethnic voters here who typically go Democratic but can vote Republican. In the northern Connecticut River valley, expect Coakley to wrack up big numbers (places like Amherst and Northhampton.)
Brown has to win big in central mass – lots of former mill towns here just south of Worcester, as well as some bucolic rural areas in the Quabbin area and north of Worcester that tend to be fiscally conservative. Coakley has to hope she can hold onto Democratic ethnic vote in Worcester proper, as well as in the Lowell area.
Brown’s support should extend east to rte. 495 and even toward 128. As you move east, however, communities become more affluent and support for Coakley will pick up particularly in the Lexington/Concord northern Rte. 128/95 area. From Cambridge in, Coakley has to wrack up big margins, particularly in the Democratic base in Boston.
I see the areas southeast toward the Cape as potential bellwethers – they often vote Republican, but the Kennedy name is strong here too. Meanwhile, Brown will try to steal some votes in the more Catholic regions near the Rhode Island border.
Ok, that’s the lay of the land. Put the beer on ice, make sure the popcorn is ready, set the cable to your favorite station (remember, we don’t get the cable here) and stay at this site. I’ll be back on after some fresh air, and will stay until the race is called or the scotch runs dry, whichever comes first.