By: Jaime Fuller

Jaime Fuller — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 06:06:09 +0000

I’ve followed this election since this summer, and I can’t say I was surprised by Owen’s win. Scozzafava was chosen by the Republican Party because she was liberal compared to most of the party, and many members of the party thought the only way to fight against the growing blue trend in Upstate New York was by refraining from ideological purity tests and choosing someone who could balance between Republican and Democratic platforms. However, differences in how parties and the public approach elections made it hard for Scozzafava to conduct a strong campaign. While Republicans were fighting over whether to support Hoffman or Scozzafava, the majority of voters seemed to be deliberating whether to support the ideologically similar Owens and Scozzafava. Party purity seemed to win this political tug-of-war, and as a result, Owens was able to pull a fund raising coup, raising more than Scozzafava and Hoffman combined from July 1 to October 14, a factor which probably played a large role in his eventual victory. As I said, I was pretty confident Owens was going to win from the get-go, but I’m a lot less certain about the next big race everyone is excited about in New York, the 2010 Senate races. Senator Gillibrand’s seat has been eyed hungrily by many New York politicos, but potential Democratic primary opponents, like Rep. Carolyn Maloney, quickly disbanded exploratory committees when the Obama administration stepped in order to ensure that Gillibrand would enter the campaign would the strongest possible party support. The only potential Democratic primary contenders left, like Suffolk County legislator Jon Cooper, don’t really stand a chance against Gillibrand’s prodigious party coffers. Gillibrand’s seat also has the distinction of being once held by Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, a fact that will probably make the 2010 election be labeled as a referendum on Obama even more than other elections taking place that year. Rudy Giuliani has expressed interest in running against Gillibrand, and current polling hints at a difficult race for Gillibrand — the latest Rasmussen poll places Giuliani at 53%, Gillibrand at 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. The race gets even more interesting when you consider that Schumer is also up for reelection in 2010 — Michael Roston has a interesting post here that shows why this might help Gillibrand’s chances against Giuliani or any other Republican candidate (http://trueslant.com/level/2009/11/23/how-will-schumers-re-election-campaign-affect-a-giuliani-senate-bid/). Regardless, this race means that the nation’s eyes will linger on New York for another year, and it’s always exciting when the news is about something I recognize from back home — the 2010 election fits the bill because Gillibrand used to be my representative before she was chosen to fill Clinton’s empty seat.

Comments on: Hoffman Closing, But Not Fast Enough

By: Jaime Fuller