As for presidential popularity and congressional results – there is data on that. I need to dig it up so I don’t get it wrong! But it also deserves a separate post. As a tease, note that as congressional elections are increasingly nationalized (and I have data showing this), they become more influenced by the same factors that drive presidential approval rates. What this means – and I need to get data to show this – is that presidential approval ratings should be a stronger predictor of midterm results in recent years. Even if this is true, however, there is still a strong local component in most congressional races. I’ll see if I can get actual data to show this.

What I’m trying to get at here is that aggregate polling numbers aren’t really very useful indicators of how much “capital” a president possesses in any particular policy fight. For that, we need more focused questions centering on the policy under consideration. Even here, however, polling question wording is crucial for driving results. Thus, it is quite possible that a majority of people polled with support health care reform, but oppose health care reform that means their premiums/taxes will go up. That’s why polling on health care appears so volatile – much of the apparent inconsistency is the result of different question wording. But Obama’s declining aggregate approval isn’t particularly relevant to this issue.

Marty raises some really interesting questions relating to the link between trust and approval. I might add to that questions regarding “right track/wrong track” as well – all tap into slightly different underlying dimensions that people might use when evaluating the Obama presidency to date. This is a fascinating topic that really deserves a separate post. As for the subsidiary “chinks in the amor” Marty lists – I’m not sure they are of equal significance when it comes to overall public evaluations of Obama’s presidency. My guess is the CBO numbers play a bigger role in evaluations of his health care policy (more accurately, Congressional Democrats’ health care), while the other issues get more to considerations of Obama as trustworthy leader. Without more evidence, I hesitate to roll them together as components of the overall decline in his approval. But I need to noodle on this a bit more. Great observations though…

Really interesting to know there’s more going on than the Presidential honeymoon.

I have the same question as Tarsi. And beyond that, is there any data on whether Presidential popularity affects the first Congressional elections? Or is it strictly the nation’s circumstances that drive that vote.

On a slightly related matter, does rhetoric drive approval in any respect?

What triggers this question is gradually coalescing complaints about truth-telling by the administration, which must be a perennial of the TV age, but usually has substantive considerations underlying it. In polling, is popular “trust” a different axis than “approval”/”confidence”? If so, a leading or lagging indicator?

In this case, a couple of chinks in the armor highlighting the trend, namely 1) Below 50% Republican credence that Obama’s Honolulu birth certificate is the full story; 2) press about the economic team’s Goldman-colored glasses; and 3) the President’s notable dodge of the CBO’s tough refutation of the cost savings coming out of Congressional health care deals; 4) skirting Congress’ national security investigative agenda; 5) heat over taking down the ethics page on the White House site for a while.

Ruth Marcus’ op/ed in the Washington Post this morning is another example, focused on Gibbs as Press Secretary, especially some implausible tax rhetoric.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/04/AR2009080402423.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Best,

Marty

http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/01/25/94/