Comments on: It Wasn’t Always Like This: Sotomayor and Senate Polarization

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:51:14 +0000

Tarsi – It’s difficult to untangle constituency influence from a Senator’s ideology, because the one drives the other. Senators win election because their ideology resonates with the plurality of the voting public, on the whole. So it’s not the case that senators ignore constituency – in fact, they are acutely sensitive to constituency reactions. But that’s my point – they must gauge the overall constituency reaction – and not just that of Latinos. Too many pundits, in my view, got caught up in the idea that a vote against Sotamayor would lose Republicans support among Latinos. Individual senators don’t look at the vote in such terms – they look at their own core supporters first – the people who got them into office – not national trends. These were individuals Senators, each making separate political calculations. So its not that public opinion is irrelevant – you just need to identify the publics. One final thought – I’m not convinced that the Latino vote is as monolithic as commentators suggest; not only are their different Latinos – Mexicans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans – they also are monolithic in terms of voting (in contrast to AFrican Americans). Remember, McCain won 1/3 or so of the Latino vote, if I remember my exit poll data correctly.

By: tvdunlop

tvdunlop — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 02:47:43 +0000

So if I ever end up a betting situation on something like this, could you confirm my reasoning (provided I used the logic your classes imparted to me to come to the conclusion I’m betting on)? Horray for the science in political science….

By: Jeff Garofano

Jeff Garofano — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:41:35 +0000

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/06/AR2009080601706.html

Dead on. You should play Fantasy Congress/take out prop bets in Vegas/Ripton on these things.

By: Jason Mittell

Jason Mittell — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:41:15 +0000

Well done on your prediction of 31! I expect to see you wearing your t-shirt the next time I see you at a faculty meeting…

By: Tarsi

Tarsi — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 14:15:40 +0000

Clearly party affiliations and the ideological aspect are the main determinants of voting in this and some other more policy focused areas, but I’m just curious about how constituencies factor into senators’ votes in this instance (if they do at all). I would guess that some Republican senators who have large numbers of Hispanic constituents probably won’t really see any fallout for voting against her confirmation in the long-run and therefore in terms of re-election prospects, public opinion is fairly irrelevant (or non-existent on this issue) – is that correct?