Monthly Archives: November 2008

Some Data on Undecideds

There’s a nice summary by Charles Franklin at  (see here) of the National Election Studies analyses dating back to 1948 regarding how the undecideds break in presidential elections.  As I noted in an earlier post, the basic rule of … Continue reading

Considering the Final Pew Poll: Some Reminders

The Pew Research Center is normally one of the most reliable pollsters – they use sound sampling techniques, generally have a robust sample size, and in 2004 came very close to nailing the final election results. Thus it is with … Continue reading

A Bradley Effect, or a Sally Field Effect?

In analyzing the election to this point, I have relied heavily on polling data. But what if the polling data is wrong?  Of course, all polling is based on random sampling so there is invariably some uncertainty due to statistical … Continue reading

How many Democrats? How many Republicans?

  Many posts ago I told you that one indication of where an election is likely to go is revealed by the underlying partisan predispositions of the voting public. Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters that periodically polls the … Continue reading

Answering Viewer Mail (and It’s About Time!)

It’s been a while since I’ve had an opportunity to react to the many excellent comments and questions you have been sending my way, so let me take the opportunity to do so now, before the storm hits.  I’ll work … Continue reading