Monthly Archives: November 2008

Reminder About Leaked Exit Polls

Conor’s inquiry prompts me to remind all of you about leaked exit polls. Most of my regular viewers have heard this screed before, but for those who have not, remember that leaked exit polls aren’t necessarily “inaccurate” – they are … Continue reading

The UnDecideds Decide – But for which candidate?

  Three more national polls have come in overnight, from Marist, Reuters/Zogby and IBD/TPP.  Presumably all include some polling from as late as Sunday. None do much to change the scenario in the national popular vote scenario I painted yesterday … Continue reading

Who will win the popular vote? The polls speak one last time

Almost all the penultimate tracking results for the national polls are in, and they provide a rosy picture for Obama, and a bleak one for McCain.  For McCain diehards, however, there is still evidence that Obama has not yet clinched … Continue reading

Waiting for the Youth Vote

The sun comes up, the sun goes down, and young voters stay home in presidential elections. Three observations that remain true today. Here’s the data so far on the much ballyhooed “youth” vote. Pew finds 19% of registered voters falling … Continue reading

Looking at Get-Out-The-Vote: Who is More Effective?

Contrary to the impression conveyed in many media reports, I have been arguing that I have seen no clear sign that either Obama or McCain has run the more effective campaign, strategically speaking.  Instead, media claims that Obama’s campaign is … Continue reading