Three more national polls have come in overnight, from Marist, Reuters/Zogby and IBD/TPP. Presumably all include some polling from as late as Sunday. None do much to change the scenario in the national popular vote scenario I painted yesterday (Obama up by roughly 5-7%), but it is interesting to see how IBD/TPP allocated its undecideds. As I noted yesterday, most of the major pollsters, in line with what I had suggested a few days back, are allocating their undecideds roughly 60-40 for McCain. They do so on the basis of demographics and by “pushing” the undecideds by asking them to make a choice. Most break for McCain when pushed. IBD’s final poll has Obama up 47.5%-42.4%, a 5.1% margin. But they then allocate the undecideds to Obama by a 4-to-1 margin, 4.0-1.9, to give them a final poll result of 51.5-44.3%. Had they allocated their undecided similarly to the other pollsters (say 3-2 for McCain), the final results would have 49.5%-45.4% – a different race on its face.
This doesn’t count the 4% “Other” that still remain in the IBD poll, which presumably included remaining undecideds.
Marist says it pushed its leaners, but it doesn’t reveal the breakdown. Its final poll has 2% undecided and 3% “Other”. I have not been able to find a breakdown of Zogby’s undecideds.
I have no idea if IBD’s decision is the correct one. But one of these pollsters is allocating undecideds incorrectly. We’ll know in less than 24 hours.