The UnDecideds Decide – But for which candidate?

 

Three more national polls have come in overnight, from Marist, Reuters/Zogby and IBD/TPP.  Presumably all include some polling from as late as Sunday. None do much to change the scenario in the national popular vote scenario I painted yesterday (Obama up by roughly 5-7%), but it is interesting to see how IBD/TPP allocated its undecideds.  As I noted yesterday, most of the major pollsters, in line with what I had suggested a few days back, are allocating their undecideds roughly 60-40 for McCain.  They do so on the basis of demographics and by “pushing” the undecideds by asking them to make a choice.  Most break for McCain when pushed.  IBD’s final poll has Obama up 47.5%-42.4%, a 5.1% margin.  But they then allocate the undecideds to Obama by a 4-to-1 margin, 4.0-1.9, to give them a final poll result of 51.5-44.3%.  Had they allocated their undecided similarly to the other pollsters (say 3-2 for McCain), the final results would have 49.5%-45.4% – a different race on its face.

This doesn’t count the 4% “Other” that still remain in the IBD poll, which presumably included remaining undecideds.

Marist says it pushed its leaners, but it doesn’t reveal the breakdown. Its final poll has 2% undecided and 3% “Other”.  I have not been able to find a breakdown of Zogby’s undecideds.

I have no idea if IBD’s decision is the correct one. But one of these pollsters is allocating undecideds incorrectly.  We’ll know in less than 24 hours.

2 comments

  1. If the exits leak, they’ll probably start leaking in the early-to-mid afternoon. Usually there’s a morning round of data that gets forwarded to the networks, followed by an afternoon round. In 2004, Drudge leaked these a.m. figures.

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