Ok, I have no idea how this is going to work, but I’ll try to live blog while doing the running commentary here at the Grille. Hope you can join in, either in person or via the blog today.
OK, we have some internal exit polls on demographic. Be forewarned, I don’t know if this reflects updated exit polls.
Florida is a tossup right now at 49-49
In Virgina, AFrican-American turnout 22%, about the same as in 2004, with Obama winning 91%
in NC, AA’s are down to 22%, from 25% in 2004, Obama winning 97% of them
In Ohio, AA’s are 12%, up froim 10% in 2004, 98% for Obama
In Pennsylvania, those who made up their mind in the last week (1 in 10) are breaking for McCain 51-47
IN Florida, Hispanics pct down to 13% from 15% in 2004, but breaking for Obama 55-44 a reversal of ’04.
13% AA in Florida, they back Obama 95%
Matt-
Do you see any voter fraud stories from today having traction?
In Missouri, evangielics (38%) of vote, backing McCain 67-32 (weaker support than Bush in 2004)
how reliable will exit polls be in north carolina, given that such a large proportion of votes there were cast before today?
The exit polls are looking terrible for McCain in almost every battleground state….I’m getting suspicious that they could be flawed. If the exit polls are right, Obama will win in a landslide.
msnbc has called PA for Obama…looking at the exit polls, it’s hard not to.
If Pennsylvania has gone to Obama, that drastically reduces the chances McCain has to win this race – essentially that means McCain needs to win some cluster of states involving NH, NM, Iowa or Colorado or Nevada – none of them likely
Right. I have not seen any results from PA yet, though.
but the exit poll margins are HUGE….60% of all women for Obama, 54% of all men for Obama.
CBS & CNN both call NH for Obama.
And now CNN calls PA for Obama.
INDIANA:
Looking over county results (and exits):
I think Obama may outperform polls in Indiana, he won the exit polls by a decent margin and looking at the county results.. Lake county hasn’t come in at all yet. He will likely pick up 50-80k votes there. He currently trails by 40k with 50% precincts reporting. I think he wins Indiana. Perhaps this is an indication tonight will be a bigger win for Obama – and the Dems overall – than we expected.
I’m sorry to say it folks, but this election is already over. Obama is poised to win in every battleground state that has reported so far, with the one exception of Georgia.
Going through every remaining county in Indiana I would estimate Obama picks up about 50k from where he stands now (about 100k from marion and lake counties minus about 50k from other remaining counties)
We haven’t said much about the Senate, but apparently Dole has lost her seat in NC – not a surprise, but a nice pickup for the Dem’s nonetheless..
Shaheen in NH and Warner in VA are the other two solid pickups in the Senate for +3 thus far.
There are too many counties in Virginia and they don’t match up with the 04 county results I’m getting on wikipedia.. but I can say Arlington, Norfolk, Fairfax and other Obama counties are not in or only 10% in so far, which explains McCain’s lead.
We are four Vermonters who went to Middlebury in the 70’s. We were in junior high when Kennedy was shot. We were freshmen during the Kent State shootings in May, 1970. We went through the first draft lottery during the Vietnam war. We cast our first vote for McCarthy in 1972. It sure was satisfying to see Vermont be the first state in Obama’s column. Let the landslide grow….
I’m going to look through the Kentucky senate race now.. it’s closer than I expected so far. 51-49.
Franken looks good in Minnesota too, based on Exit polls…
We were just seeing if you were paying attention voted for McGovern…
Obama looks good in the South Dakota exit polls too….we’ll see if that’s for real 🙂
Sorry about the pace of comments, but the wireless is overloaded here at the Grille and we simply are getting nothing from the website – everything is slow.
Fox calls NM for Obama, making it the first red state flipped.
Chambliss’ race in GA also looks fairly close – he only won the exit by about 2%.
Exit polling in AZ looks to break McCain. North Carolina is SO close, with polling breaking Obama.
Other thoughts: Alabama looks to have a HUGE racial divide, according to polling. Only 14% white people voting for Obama? Wow.
Fox called OH for Obama. I believe that would tip it.
Is Ohio for real?
I’ve gone through the counties in KY.. it looks close but if I had to guess McConnell holds on.
msnbc called ohio for obama
And they just called it.
Ok, I’m on a direct link so hopefully comments will come faster. Based on my earlier projections, I don’t see how McCain can win this – Ohio has been called and that pretty much seals the deal for Obama. The issues now are the Senate races and the extent of Obama’s “mandate”, if any.
Looks like Chambliss will hold on, and McConnell too – so no chance of 60 seats for the Dem’s
Probably a pick up of 7 or 8 seats for the Dems, giving them 58 or 59 including Lieberman.
CNN called Ohio. Too bad about Chambliss. Is Sessions gone?
Remember Lake county during the primary? Huge turnout and late results. He actually pulled ahead of Clinton sometime after midnight after trailing by a large margin but nobody noticed because she pulled back ahead when a few more rural counties came in.
Well, CNN has just called it for Obama in Ohio – late, of course. But it got a huge cheer here in the Grille, since we are listening to CNN.
Wait for the long knives to come out. Expect the talking heads to start discussing how McCain ran a poor campaign…
Obama has pulled within 25k as 40% of Lake county reports breaking 71-31k for Obama and Marion in 79% 179k-100k.
cnn projects new mexico for Obama
9:50 Max – you are late to the party. We called New Mexico 20 minutes ago.
At this point we are looking at the size of the “mandate”.
Obama is within 7k in Indiana. It is going to come down to the wire.
my computer took a long time to load it in. I’ve been enjoying eavesdropping on this Middlebury party.
On MiddBlog, the word is that you’re still defending the Palin choice & said that she drew Hillary voters. CNN said that Obama got high-90s % of Hillary voters, so I don’t buy that at all. She drove away tons of moderates, and drove a lot of fundraising toward Obama. The Palin gambit was a bust.
haha. Nardini….it’s good to see you (figuratively speaking)
Check out the Kentucky senate race….
OK, we have some internal exit polls on demographic. Be forewarned, I don’t know if this reflects updated exit polls.
Florida is a tossup right now at 49-49
In Virgina, AFrican-American turnout 22%, about the same as in 2004, with Obama winning 91%
in NC, AA’s are down to 22%, from 25% in 2004, Obama winning 97% of them
In Ohio, AA’s are 12%, up froim 10% in 2004, 98% for Obama
In Pennsylvania, those who made up their mind in the last week (1 in 10) are breaking for McCain 51-47
IN Florida, Hispanics pct down to 13% from 15% in 2004, but breaking for Obama 55-44 a reversal of ’04.
13% AA in Florida, they back Obama 95%
Matt-
Do you see any voter fraud stories from today having traction?
In Missouri, evangielics (38%) of vote, backing McCain 67-32 (weaker support than Bush in 2004)
how reliable will exit polls be in north carolina, given that such a large proportion of votes there were cast before today?
The exit polls are looking terrible for McCain in almost every battleground state….I’m getting suspicious that they could be flawed. If the exit polls are right, Obama will win in a landslide.
msnbc has called PA for Obama…looking at the exit polls, it’s hard not to.
If Pennsylvania has gone to Obama, that drastically reduces the chances McCain has to win this race – essentially that means McCain needs to win some cluster of states involving NH, NM, Iowa or Colorado or Nevada – none of them likely
Right. I have not seen any results from PA yet, though.
but the exit poll margins are HUGE….60% of all women for Obama, 54% of all men for Obama.
CBS & CNN both call NH for Obama.
And now CNN calls PA for Obama.
INDIANA:
Looking over county results (and exits):
I think Obama may outperform polls in Indiana, he won the exit polls by a decent margin and looking at the county results.. Lake county hasn’t come in at all yet. He will likely pick up 50-80k votes there. He currently trails by 40k with 50% precincts reporting. I think he wins Indiana. Perhaps this is an indication tonight will be a bigger win for Obama – and the Dems overall – than we expected.
I’m sorry to say it folks, but this election is already over. Obama is poised to win in every battleground state that has reported so far, with the one exception of Georgia.
Going through every remaining county in Indiana I would estimate Obama picks up about 50k from where he stands now (about 100k from marion and lake counties minus about 50k from other remaining counties)
We haven’t said much about the Senate, but apparently Dole has lost her seat in NC – not a surprise, but a nice pickup for the Dem’s nonetheless..
Shaheen in NH and Warner in VA are the other two solid pickups in the Senate for +3 thus far.
There are too many counties in Virginia and they don’t match up with the 04 county results I’m getting on wikipedia.. but I can say Arlington, Norfolk, Fairfax and other Obama counties are not in or only 10% in so far, which explains McCain’s lead.
We are four Vermonters who went to Middlebury in the 70’s. We were in junior high when Kennedy was shot. We were freshmen during the Kent State shootings in May, 1970. We went through the first draft lottery during the Vietnam war. We cast our first vote for McCarthy in 1972. It sure was satisfying to see Vermont be the first state in Obama’s column. Let the landslide grow….
I’m going to look through the Kentucky senate race now.. it’s closer than I expected so far. 51-49.
Franken looks good in Minnesota too, based on Exit polls…
We were just seeing if you were paying attention voted for McGovern…
Obama looks good in the South Dakota exit polls too….we’ll see if that’s for real 🙂
Sorry about the pace of comments, but the wireless is overloaded here at the Grille and we simply are getting nothing from the website – everything is slow.
Fox calls NM for Obama, making it the first red state flipped.
Chambliss’ race in GA also looks fairly close – he only won the exit by about 2%.
Exit polling in AZ looks to break McCain. North Carolina is SO close, with polling breaking Obama.
Other thoughts: Alabama looks to have a HUGE racial divide, according to polling. Only 14% white people voting for Obama? Wow.
Fox called OH for Obama. I believe that would tip it.
Is Ohio for real?
I’ve gone through the counties in KY.. it looks close but if I had to guess McConnell holds on.
msnbc called ohio for obama
And they just called it.
Ok, I’m on a direct link so hopefully comments will come faster. Based on my earlier projections, I don’t see how McCain can win this – Ohio has been called and that pretty much seals the deal for Obama. The issues now are the Senate races and the extent of Obama’s “mandate”, if any.
Looks like Chambliss will hold on, and McConnell too – so no chance of 60 seats for the Dem’s
Probably a pick up of 7 or 8 seats for the Dems, giving them 58 or 59 including Lieberman.
CNN called Ohio. Too bad about Chambliss. Is Sessions gone?
Remember Lake county during the primary? Huge turnout and late results. He actually pulled ahead of Clinton sometime after midnight after trailing by a large margin but nobody noticed because she pulled back ahead when a few more rural counties came in.
Well, CNN has just called it for Obama in Ohio – late, of course. But it got a huge cheer here in the Grille, since we are listening to CNN.
Wait for the long knives to come out. Expect the talking heads to start discussing how McCain ran a poor campaign…
Obama has pulled within 25k as 40% of Lake county reports breaking 71-31k for Obama and Marion in 79% 179k-100k.
cnn projects new mexico for Obama
9:50 Max – you are late to the party. We called New Mexico 20 minutes ago.
At this point we are looking at the size of the “mandate”.
Obama is within 7k in Indiana. It is going to come down to the wire.
my computer took a long time to load it in. I’ve been enjoying eavesdropping on this Middlebury party.
On MiddBlog, the word is that you’re still defending the Palin choice & said that she drew Hillary voters. CNN said that Obama got high-90s % of Hillary voters, so I don’t buy that at all. She drove away tons of moderates, and drove a lot of fundraising toward Obama. The Palin gambit was a bust.
haha. Nardini….it’s good to see you (figuratively speaking)