Monthly Archives: October 2008

Is the Race Over?

Many of you have asked, in various ways, whether this race is over, or whether McCain can mount a comeback. Four days ago I suggested that the almost month-long movement toward Obama in the national tracking polls precipitated by the … Continue reading

Do Debates Even Matter?

Why hold debates at all?  Several students have asked me this in light of my gentle chiding of the pundits for their predilection to declare a victor in the debates on the basis of dubious evidence (see, for example, the … Continue reading

Is it Random Noise, the Palin Effect, or the Bailout Bill?

In analyzing the presidential race to this point I have focused my attention primarily on national survey data.  As I noted in an earlier post, that survey data indicates that Obama increased his lead over McCain by approximately 6% in … Continue reading

Another Reason Why Last Night’s Debate Likely Will Not Matter

There is another reason that debates rarely shift voting coalitions, and that is the way the media covers them.  Last night’s debate is a perfect example.  John McCain made two significant and highly controversial policy proposals and both were buried … Continue reading

Live blogging tonight’s Town Hall debate

Tonight’s bets: 1. Does McCain bring up Ayers and/or Wright? 2. If he does, does Obama respond with the Keating Five? 3. Will McCain say “middle class”?  Will Obama say “victory in Iraq”? 9:00  Remember – “uncommitted” voters are not … Continue reading