Comments on: Undecideds and Persuadables

By: Jack Goodman

Jack Goodman — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 01:10:46 +0000

Matt, you have indicated that you thought that Rasmussen and Gallup were the most reliable polls. As of 9 PM Saturday, Rasmussen has the National vote Obama + 5 and Gallup, both Traditional and Expanded at Obama +10. Can you suggest and explanation for this disparity?

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 02:25:31 +0000

Jason – Yes, you are right. The overall number of persuadable voters declines as early voting takes place. In the surveys, pollsters are asking voters if they have voted already, and obviously only asking those who haven’t voted yet how strong their support is. But your point is well taken – 10% of a shrinking pie means less persuadable voters. Note that this is more significant in some states that are showing a large number of early voters (like Nevada). Most of our discussion is in reference to the national tracking polls. At this point, early voting is about 18% of the total turnout in voters for 2004, so assuming equal turnout (and my guess is it will go up this year), the pool of “persuadables” (assuming a 10% rate) is already down 1.8% overall. Don’t know if I’d call that significant – but it is less!

By: Jason Mittell

Jason Mittell — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 01:46:48 +0000

How do these polls deal with early voting? If the numbers of early voters are as high as reports say, the idea that 10% of voters might change their minds drops significantly – you can’t change your mind once you vote!