McCain could be looking for insurance against a Virginia loss – flipping PA would make up for VA and NH combined. But again, why pour resources into Pennsylvania instead of into keeping Virginia and flipping a smaller state?

My theory is that the McCain camp feels they’ve already tried everything they can try in Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc. They’ve been working hard there forever and are getting no traction. So this is a desperation move – they feel like there is room to tighten the race in Pennsylvania, where they haven’t already thrown their best resources and failed.

If this is the case, McCain might be ready to give up on Virginia completely – polls there have been very stark for him, and NoVa is an expensive media market. He might be left with the decision to fight in Pennsylvania only because it’s the only way he can win after dropping Virginia’s 13 EVs. But it’s a very long shot – rednecky as PA is, the rednecks don’t carry the state – McCain will have to gain ground among exurban Philadelphian-suburb types and uniony (but granted, racist) steel-town types – Obama has been talking to these folks for ages, and it seems unlikely that McCain will reverse their commitments in these last two weeks.

Even if he should pull off an upset in PA, the math is still unfriendly for McCain. In the electoral-vote.com graphs, he is looking weaker than any other point in the campaign since June. Meanwhile, the national polls show no sign of shifting in McCain’s favor. The average has wavered a little but continues to show a 5% to 8% lead for Obama- all of this alongside the news that McCain has pretty much given up campaigning in Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Simply stated, I think things are looking very bleak for anyone looking at a map in McCain’s HQ in Arlington. The shift (or concentration) of campaign resources in PA is one of those “once more into the breach, dear friends, once more” moments, but I think it’s more of an attempt to save face than a strategy to win the race.

I do have one question though: how much do you think Boris Johnson’s endorsement of Obama will affect those swing voters? I’m thinking that it should play a huge role in shoring up all of those Philadelphia suburbs packed with British ex-nationals…

Here’s some more information on McCain’s efforts on PA and why he is focusing there. It will be interesting to see how he performs there.