Monthly Archives: September 2008

Live blogging on the Palin speech…

Ok, she’s on.

Lots of shots of her husband carrying their youngest (judging by the calm demeanor the baby has been guzzling high octane scotch).

Two minutes in and the first reference to a) being a Mom and b) her son’s military service.  Lots of shots of her son.

Here’s the humanizing part – introducing the kids!  They smile on key.  And then there’s Trig – oblivious, as he should be.

Ok, here comes the family biography, starting with special needs.   And the husband!  He hits the Republican trifecta: works in oil fields, is a fisherman and is a champion snowmobiler!

Six minutes in and the first “hockey Mom/PTA” reference.

Another baby shot. Hasn’t moved yet – is it a real baby?  Wish I had some of that scotch.

She’s rolling now – no mistakes so far.

Here’s the drilling pitch – get ready for the chant.

More Obama bashing…. all style, no substance, etc.  Red meat.  Even Cindy likes it.

The first Obama as Messiah reference.

The first Obama as a tax and spend liberal reference…

The first Michigan and Ohio reference… followed by Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Minnesota.  Guess what McCain views as the battleground states?

Ok, the McCain as change reference.  Look for the glass ceiling reference to come soon…

More Obama as “community organizer” reference.  Again, the Republicans will win if this election comes down to comparing Palin and Obama’s experience (or lack thereof).

More on the style vs. substance/ rhetoric vs. deed comparison.

36 minutes and she’s done.  The obligatory family shot. What has that baby been drinking? Still calm.  And of course – Mom gets the baby!  Nice, nice touch.

And, of course, McCain is on stage. Two can play at this game.

First hurdle – Palin cleared it easily.  A very very effective speech.  So effective, in fact, that it will be easy to overestimate its impact on the election.  Remember, in two weeks, this will largely be forgotten, if history is any guide.  But on first impression, just additional evidence that McCain’s roll of the dice has come up huge.  She could have easily pulled a Quayle, but didn’t.  This was about as good as Republicans could expect and about as bad as Democrats feared.  She came across as presidential. Period.  But it is likely to have very little impact on the election – unless this year is something different.  Remember, you can’t judge the impact of this speech by the reaction of Republicans in the hall – we need to see how conservative women, and disaffected Clinton voters, react.  Did she win over the moderate women voters who may be on the fence?

Stay tuned.

The Palin pick has struck a nerve – yours!

McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin (or my characterization of it) has clearly hit a nerve, judging by your continuing responses, which range from the astute to the questionable to the vitriolic. A sampling:

“If the American people voted based on executive faculties, I’d be liable to say the race would be no contest. …Obama wins”

“While I agree that McCain has captured the public’s attention with his choice, I wonder if Obama was looking beyond the election to governing when he made his vice presidential selection.”

“How can you defend McCain’s choice when it is clearly an attempt to pander to women voters? And what does it say about his judgment and patriotism when he puts winning an election ahead of the best interest of the country?”

“With McCain’s choice of Palin, Obama just won the election.”

And, my perhaps my favorite (a quote from a “German student” forwarded to me): “Palin is f*$%d in the head.”

Finally – in a blatant attempt to pander to ME: “The choice of Biden shows that Obama has read Neustadt’s Presidential Power.”

I’ll leave it to you to decide which are the astute comments, which are the questionable, and which are the vitriolic. But let me make two general observations. First, there is a consistent and I think mistaken underlying theme to many of your comments that criticize McCain’s choice but defend Obama’s, and that is that they were motivated by different impulses. From this perspective, Obama’s decision to appoint Biden was driven by love of country, Mom and apple pie, while McCain’s was blatant pandering; he sold the country down the river to secure the women’s vote. There is a saying, popular among political scientists, to which I ascribe that goes something like this: “Never assume an altruistic motive for a politician when a self-interested one will do.” So it is in the case of Obama and McCain. In my view, both acted on identical impulses: they chose the vice president most likely to strengthen their voting coalition in the general election. For Obama, that meant counteracting the perception that he was too inexperienced in foreign policy to serve as president. For McCain, that meant reestablishing his image as a “maverick” Republican while burnishing his credentials with the Republican right.

Some of you appear uneasy with the idea that electoral considerations might determine a vice presidential choice. The Palin choice, you argue, is blatant pandering to women voters. Far better that McCain ignored electoral considerations and instead did what was best for the country. The problem with this reasoning is that McCain’s – and Obama’s – first consideration must be getting elected. Both believe they can lead this country, but all the good intentions in the world mean nothing if they aren’t selected. Everything they do between now and November must be directed toward that single overriding purpose. How do you get elected? By appealing to voters – by convincing them that you are stronger than the other candidate. Now, McCain’s choice might be interpreted as pandering, but women voters – all voters – will make that decision. It’s not as if he sold Palin as something other than what she is – it is perfectly obvious to the electorate why she is on the ticket. Some people will be offended by her selection. McCain is guessing that many more will respond favorably. For better and for worse, that is how we choose presidents in this country – we leave it up to the voters to decide whether a candidate has demonstrated leadership qualities. The choice of a vice president is one indicator of judgment.

In my view, the early returns have largely validated McCain’s choice. But it is still early – we shall see how she does tonight in her primetime convention speech, and the media vetting process that I warned you about is still underway (I’ll have something to say about that in a separate post later today).

A final thought regarding Obama and the Biden choice. Since I defended the Palin pick in part by comparing her to the alternatives McCain considered, some of you have argued that even though Biden has faults, he was the best of the possible candidates. Let’s consider that. What Obama clearly needed to do was shore up his centrist base among voters, and put someone on the ticket who has some governing experience, presumably from within the executive branch. Hmmmm…..who might have met that criteria? Was there any candidate out there who understood the media scrutiny the president receives, who was familiar with decisionmaking in the Oval Office, who understood the policy process and how to work with the executive branch, and had worked with Congress from both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue AND who might have also served on a Senate foreign policy-related committee (say, the Armed Services Committee)? John Edwards? No executive branch experience. Bill Richardson? Cabinet and foreign policy experience, to be sure. He might have fit the bill, but had lost popularity in his home state. Chet Edwards? nope. Evan Bayh? No executive branch experience. Kathleen Sebelius? Executive experience to be sure, but no national exposure. Tim Kaine? Ditto. Chris Dodd – uh uh.

Who might fit the criteria then? Thinking….thinking…. Oh, that’s right. Hillary Clinton. Executive experience – presidential, actually. Serves on Armed Services committee. Two-term Senator, so knows foreign policy from a congressional perspective. And – oh yeah – brings millions of voters to the booth.

Defending the Palin pick

I’ve received a healthy dose of feedback – mostly critical – from you in the last two days regarding my characterization of the Palin pick as an effective choice. You’ve raised three main objections:

1. How can I criticize Biden for having the “wrong” type of foreign policy experience to effectively advise Obama, but not criticize Palin who has almost no foreign policy experience of any type? She is clearly even less useful as an adviser than is Biden.

2. The Palin pick simply reminds voters once again of McCain’s advanced age (he just turned 72 and would be the oldest elected first-term president in our history). Given his age, her lack of preparation to be president is particularly worrisome and thus makes voting for McCain an even riskier prospect.
3. Most disaffected Clinton supporters will find Palin’s policy views unpalatable and hence are unlikely to vote Republican come November.

These are all valid objections. In evaluating the Palin choice, however, we must consider what McCain sought to accomplish with his VP pick, and what the available alternatives there were for accomplishing those objectives.

First, McCain – unlike Obama with his choice of Biden – did not select Palin in terms of her advising potential in foreign policy or any other area. Obama clearly sought to reassure voters that he would have a wise hand at his side with Biden in the Oval Office. McCain’s objectives were entirely different – he wanted to signal that he too is an agent for change – a “maverick” Republican not afraid to take chances. A vote for him is not simply a vote for four more years of the “failed Bush-Cheney” policies – it is a vote for a new direction in politics. And he needed to shore up his credentials with the conservative wing of the Republican party. If elected, McCain is not going to be relying on Palin for foreign policy advice (or for much policy advice at all I would guess – at least not initially).

Second, it is true that this pick may cause voters to reconsider their vote in light of McCain’s age. But the age issue will hover over this election like Banquo’s ghost at Macbeth’s feast. McCain must have calculated that the benefits of the Palin pick outweighed the uncertainty it may cause among some voters as they consider his age. We shall see if his calculation is correct but at first glance, I can’t say the tradeoff is not worth making. Indeed, my read is that he gains much more than he loses here. Again, the default response that every Republican must make when this issue comes up is: “What is the riskier choice – Obama as President, or Palin as Vice President. They are both inexperienced, but we are only voting for one as President.”

Third, without seeing survey data, I can’t be sure how Clinton’s supporters – particularly women – will react to this choice. My guess is that the majority of them will default to Obama, particularly given Palin’s stance on gun control, abortion, and other social issues. But McCain is wagering that by choosing Palin, he may win the votes of what polls suggest are a significant minority of Clinton supporters who vow that they will not vote for Obama no matter what. It is not too farfetched, in my view, to believe that at least some of them will now be more likely to pull the lever for McCain because of the Palin selection. Without polling data, I can’t be sure how many that will be. But no one can predict with certainty what many women will do when they are alone in the polling booth, and they consider that Obama had the chance to put Clinton on the ticket and did not. My guess is that not a few will vote the McCain/Palin ticket, and in a close race that may be enough to swing a state to the Republican column. Or so McCain has calculated.

Given these factors, I remain convinced this was a high risk choice, but one that has a potentially big payoff – assuming (a huge assumption) that Palin rises to the occasion. And all the signs so far (and it is still early) suggest that when evaluated in terms of McCain’s objectives, this was a huge winner. The latest indication is the huge spike in fundraising in the 48 hours since the Palin choice. Having said that, I also believe that in the long run the Palin selection will not fundamentally change the dynamics of this race.

Now, consider McCain’s alternative choices. The pundits’ short list, unlike mine, focused on Romney, Pawlenty, and Ridge as the frontrunners, with Lieberman as a dark horse choice. But these were the Joe Biden equivalent choices – safe, predictable and thus wrong for McCain if he wanted to signal that he is for change and capture the media’s attention. Once Biden was selected, as those of you reading my posts know, I thought the door was open underneath a flashing neon light surrounded by spotlights that said, “Pick a woman, John!”. (The other option was to pick a Democrat – Lieberman – but I thought it was too risky given his social views. Lieberman simply mimics McCain on foreign policy and at the same time would alienate the conservative wing of the Republican party). So, what women are available? My first pick was Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Texas Senator. I still think she might have been a wise choice based on her experience but she just turned 65 and may have been viewed as too old to pair with McCain. Olympia Snow was another option, but she’s very moderate and did nothing to shore up his conservative credentials. Condi Rice was the dream choice, but with her on the ticket it would have been too easy to paint McCain as four more years of Bush-Cheney.

When you consider the alternatives, then, the Palin choice begins to make sense.. On another issue: looking solely at the impact on the Republican convention, Hurricane Gustav is not the disaster pundits are describing it as. First, it provides a valid excuse to keep Bush and Cheney off the convention speakers’ list, thus removing a potentially sticky public relations problem – you can’t disinvite an unpopular president to his party’s nominating convention. But now Bush and Cheney have a valid reason not to come. Second, this will provide plenty of photo ops for McCain to appear presidential. Look for Bush, behind the scenes, to make sure McCain has plenty of opportunities to be seen visiting the emergency shelters, evaluations areas, etc.