Monthly Archives: September 2008

Interpreting the polls: Likely versus registered voter surveys

I will have only brief opportunities to post during the next several days since I am traveling to give an election talk, but I wanted to respond to several of your comments and follow up on some points I made … Continue reading

Are the polls systematically underestimating Obama’s support?

Those of you who followed these posts during the nomination campaign will remember my constant refrain that not all surveys are alike and my determination to make you look at their sampling techniques in order to evaluate their accuracy. We … Continue reading

Explaining the McCain/Palin surge

Since Sept. 2, when Obama led McCain in the RCP average of polls by almost 7%, 49.2 to 42.8 (his biggest margin since late June) the polling dynamics of this race have undergone a sharp turnabout.  The last RCP average … Continue reading

A brief digression

Responding to the steady stream of election-related events often prevents me from addressing some other issues about which I have promised to write.  So let me deal quickly with one housekeeping matter in this post before writing more extensively in … Continue reading

McCain won the post-convention “bounce.” Does that mean he will win the election?

Several of you have asked whether the candidate who wins the “bounce war” – who gets the biggest bounce in approval coming out of their respective convention – is more likely to win the general election.  In response, I went … Continue reading