Monthly Archives: September 2008

Color changes: Great for leaf peeping, not always for election maps

One benefit that Al Gore bestowed on all of us when he invented the internet is the ease with which we can access a plethora of election-related information at the click of a mouse. This includes color-coded maps of the … Continue reading

We get comments, lots and lots of comments (cue Letterman music …)

In this post I want to try to answer several of the excellent questions posted in response to some of my earlier blogs. First, Conor Shaw points out that although my rule of thumb that McCain does better in surveys … Continue reading

Assessing the forecast models: Some caveats

Yesterday I provided the results from several forecast models, all of which – with one exception – predict that Obama will win the two-party popular vote over McCain. Historically, of course, the popular vote winner is usually the Electoral College … Continue reading

It’s Obama! (Or is it?): Forecasting the 2008 election

Who will win the 2008 presidential election? For those political scientists who specialize in modeling elections with the goal of predicting outcomes, the verdict is already in. Barring some unforeseen or atypical event(s), they have already predicted the winner. Who … Continue reading

How many Democrats? How many Republicans?

I want to follow up on my last post regarding how variations in poll results are often due to differences in how pollsters construct their samples. The previous post talked primarily about whether pollsters were sampling likely or registered voters. … Continue reading