http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html

It’s too early to tell for sure, but it looks like things are settling a bit and returning to the pre-convention state of the race.

Makes a strong case for the “fundamentals of the race” analysis of this election, especially because the polls, viewed as a whole, have shown remarkable consistency this year, in contrast to 2004. McCain still has a very steep hill to climb, particularly if the economy is the main issue on voters’ minds.

It seems to me that a McCain victory is going to require some sort of game-changer that significantly alters the race before election day. I’ll admit, albeit grudgingly, that picking Palin was a real coup for McCain. It’s hard to deny if you look at the polling evidence you presented as well as the nationwide and state polls after the Republican Convention. The only thing I might add is that now, having seen how effective his choice has been (at least momentarily), McCain might be wishing he had waited to announce her as his VP choice a little closer to the election!

There are still many opportunities for the race to change dramatically, but time is running out. Do you think McCain can really afford to gamble with tonight’s presidential debate, especially when polls show that voters overwhelmingly want it to happen? Or, does Obama’s recent surge in the polls justify nearly any tactic, however risky, that changes things up and prevents the race from becoming static?