The Palin Effect: McCain rolled the dice and it paid off (so far)

Longtime readers will note that what (I hope) sets these posts apart from most of the election-year coverage you may have been reading is that a) my posts are designed to be non-partisan; I favor neither candidate and, in fact, will not vote in the election (Do as I say – VOTE! – not as I do); and b) whenever I make an assertion I try, as much as possible, to back it up with data.

With that in mind, let me return to a somewhat controversial assertion I made regarding the Palin pick – from the start, and contrary to most media coverage, I claimed that this would be a very effective pick for McCain because it would energize his Republican base, signal that he, too, is a candidate for change and potentially might swing some wavering centrist, disaffected Clinton voters into the McCain column. I cautioned that her candidacy still needed to be vetted, citing in particular the charge of influence peddling in the case regarding her brother-in-law. But with that caveat I believed this was a high risk but potentially very high payoff choice. (Note that I never believed the pregnancy of her unwed daughter would hurt her, and indeed thought it would help Palin among the Republican right particularly after the media began hinting it would force her off the ticket – that simply solidified her support among conservatives and, not incidentally, among many women.

I made these assertions based on my read of the voting coalitions as they developed during my primary coverage, but at the time we could not know if I my claim was correct. Now, several days after Palin’s unveiling, what does the data say? In fact – so far – it largely validates my initial claim: Palin has been a big winner for McCain. Here’s the evidence, based on several surveys:

To begin, I look at the results of a nationwide survey of potential voters by Zogby (admittedly not the most reliable of survey outfits during the nominating phases, so interpret with caution). Note that this survey is before the Palin speech. As I suggested, the Palin choice was initially viewed as potentially a high risk but high payoff choice, while Biden’s selection was viewed as less risky, but generally positive:

Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain’s chances of winning the presidential election in November?

8/29-30

Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?

Will help him

52%

43%

Will hurt him

29%

22%

Will make no difference

10%

26%

Not sure

10%

9%

After Palin’s speech, surveys indicate that McCain’s strategy had paid off, particularly among moderates and independents. Thus, a SurveyUSA poll found that just before Palin’s speech, independent voters nationwide were split (43-44) on whether she was an asset or a liability to McCain’s campaign. After the speech, by a 2:1 (56-27) margin, independents now viewed her as an asset, with the percentage describing Palin as an asset to the campaign climbing 13 points while the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.

The same thing happened among self-described moderates. Before the speech, they viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin, 49-38. After the speech she was seen as an asset by an 18 point margin, 48-30. (All survey results with a 6% margin of error).

Similar results come out of a survey conducted by MediaCurves, another independent polling company. After viewing Palin’s speech, the number of respondents who believed that selecting her for vice president will help John McCain’s campaign went up among Republicans, Independents and Democrats too.  Perhaps most significantly, among independents who anticipate voting in the Presidential election and who viewed Palin’s speech, there was a 9% increase among those saying they will probably or definitely vote for the McCain/Palin ticket, from 28% to 37%, while the percent who said they definitely or probably wouldn’t vote for the Republican ticket stayed essentially unchanged at 40%, although the number of those independents who say they are definitely not voting for the Republican ticket went up 7% after her speech. So, we see that her speech helped removed some doubts about her candidacy, with those leaning against her before the speech firming up their opposition, while those in favor solidified their support for her. The big movement was among the undecided independents, however, who moved toward Palin as a result of her speech. Interestingly, support for Palin increased about equally among men and women (about 10%).

But what about undecided Democrats – the Clinton voters – that aren’t sure whether to support Obama? At first glance, it appears that Palin’s speech may have helped among these voters as well, with those Democrats saying they will definitely or probably vote Republican going up from 11 to 15% as a result of her speech.  But because this change falls within the poll’s margin of error, we can’t say for certain that there was any real movement at all among Democrats.

Now, a word of caution is in order here. These are initial survey results, taken in the immediate aftermath of the Palin speech. Over time, I expect the impact of that speech to lessen, as potential voters begin to see her in other campaign appearances. But as first impressions go, McCain’s choice, as I suggested, was a clear winner.

One comment

  1. Given all the potential pitfalls of Palin (sorry for the alliteration, not intended) including her brother-in-law thing, the Pentacostal church attendance/videos, initial supporting of the Road to Nowhere, etc, do you believe that Palin was trully well vetted by the Republicans and thought that the potential benefits and change aspect outweighed the known risks? Or do you think that at the 11th hour the Republicans recognized that they needed to spice up their campaign and decided to add some much-needed enthusiasm without really having the time to check her out fully?

    On a different note, why are you choosing not to vote? I assume that it is not so that you can attempt to say that you are remaining non-partisan when making these posts. After all, it is certainly possible to have pretty strong underlying feelings about the election while choosing not to vote. And probably to a high degree, it is possible to make these posts fairly non-partisan even when you do have a strong opinion and do choose to vote. Just curious.

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