With two NESCAC games remaining for all but Trinity and Amherst, seeding for the NESCAC Tournament remains wide open. Only Bates (1-7) knows it has been locked out of the tournament — a shocking development after the Bobcats opened conference play with a road win at Middlebury, ending a streak of 43 consecutive wins for the Panthers against non-Amherst, non-Williams foes. Since then Bates has lost and lost badly and will finish the season playing for bragging rights against its CBB brethren. The remaining 10 teams all have something to play for this weekend and given all the many possible permutations, we’ve decided to break things down so we know just where everything stands. Take note of some of the particularly wild tie-breakers, all of which we attempted to analyze below. In reverse order …

11) Bates (1-7), (Bowdoin, Colby): The Bobcats have been mathematically eliminated from the NESCAC Tournament. The eight seed will finish with at least three wins and Bates has lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with all four of those possible teams.

Possible Finishes:
Bates will miss the NESCAC Tournament.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 31 @ Wesleyan (76-70 OTL).
Had Bates won that game they would currently be locked in a four-way tie for the eighth seed and would likely need only to beat Colby to secure a tournament berth. Instead, Bates will miss the NESCAC Tournament for the first time since the ’06-’07 season.

10) Connecticut College (2-6), (vs. Williams, Hamilton): The Camels are in a tough spot with one of their two wins coming against Bates (the other over Colby) and the Ephs and Continentals left on the schedule (though they play those games in New London). Even worse for Conn. College, their tournament chances hinge on matching or surpassing Colby in the standings, which requires the Mules to lose. But one of Colby’s games this weekend is at Tufts and the Jumbos hold the tiebreaker over the Camels.

Possible Finishes:
The Camels will be the 7 seed with: Two wins, Colby goes 1-1 or 0-2, Wesleyan goes 0-2 and Tufts goes 1-1 or 0-2.
The Camels will be the 8 seed with: Two wins, Colby goes 1-1 or 0-2, Tufts goes 1-1 or 0-2; OR two wins, Tufts goes 2-0 and Wesleyan goes 0-2.
The Camels will miss the NESCAC Tournament with: Anything less than two wins; OR two Colby wins; OR two Tufts wins.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 31 vs. Tufts (66-51 L).
From a game perspective, the Camels threw away a chance to beat Middlebury at home, losing in the final seconds on a Dylan Sinnickson three, but even a win over the Panthers would only go so far for the Camels who would still lose a tie-breaker with the Jumbos. Where the Camels really dropped the ball was losing to Tufts at home in a game that would have given Conn. College wins over Colby and Tufts and a stranglehold on a playoff spot.

9) Tufts (2-6), (vs. Colby, Bowdoin): After Bates, Tufts has been the conference’s most disappointing team. The Jumbos can save some face by playing their way into the NESCAC Tournament, but barring a deep run this season is going to be a series of what-ifs for Tufts, which has been derailed by key injuries to its best players. As a result the Jumbos are on the outside looking in, though their path to the postseason is not nearly as tenuous as Conn. College’s, given they own the tiebreaker and also host Colby, currently the seven seed tomorrow.

Possible Finishes:
Tufts finishes as the 7 seed with: Two wins, Wesleyan goes 0-2.
Tufts finishes as the 8 seed with: Two wins and Wesleyan goes 2-0 or 1-1; OR beat Colby, Wesleyan goes 2-0 or 1-1 and Conn. College goes 1-1 or 0-2.
Tufts misses the NESCAC Tournament if: Any scenario that involves a loss to Colby occurs, or if the Jumbos beat Colby, but lose to Bowdoin and Conn. College goes 2-0.

Game they wish they could have back: Saturday, February 1 @ Wesleyan (86-73 L).
When Bob Sheldon looks back at this season there will be a lot of games he wishes he could have back, but the loss at Wesleyan could loom particularly large. Win that game and Tufts is sitting in eighth place needing only to beat Colby to secure the seven seed.

8) Wesleyan (3-5), (vs. Hamilton, Williams): Wesleyan has been one of the pleasant surprises in the NESCAC this season. The Cardinals have played teams especially tough in Middletown, where Joe Reilly’s team is 3-1 this season and a double overtime loss to Middlebury from being 4-0 on home turf in conference play.

Possible Finishes:
Wesleyan finishes as the 6 seed with: Two wins and Colby goes 1-1 or 0-2; OR beat Hamilton, Hamilton goes 0-2 and Colby goes 0-2.
Wesleyan finishes as the 7 seed with: Two wins and Colby goes 2-0; OR 1-1, Hamilton goes 1-1, Colby goes 0-2, Tufts goes 1-1 or O-2 and Conn. College goes 1-1 or 0-2.*
Wesleyan finishes as the 8 seed with: Two losses, Tufts goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Conn. College goes 1-1 or 0-2; OR 1-1, Hamilton goes 2-0 or 1-1 and Colby goes 2-0 or 1-1.
Wesleyan misses the NESCAC Tournament with: Two losses and either Conn. College or Tufts go 2-0.

*There are a couple of different permutations for this second seven-seed scenario, which you can figure out if you really want.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, February 7 @ Trinity (70-65 L).
This one stings for the Cardinals, who held Trinity to 19 first-half points before allowing the Bantams to explode for 51 in the second half. The difference between winning and losing that game for the Cardinals is a drop from a tie for fifth place in the conference and clinging on to the 8 seed.

7) Colby (3-5), (@Tufts, @Bates): The Mules are intriguing: They handed Amherst their only conference loss so far this season, ending a streak of 31 straight NESCAC wins for the Lord Jeffs) and had played everyone in the conference tough before being blown out by Middlebury last week. Colby went 3-1 at home this year, but is on the short end of the travel stick, having to play six games on the road this season, including the final two away from Waterville. The future is bright for Damien Strahorn’s team, which is led by a loaded sophomore class. In the meantime, however, Colby will need to prove its chops on the road — where it has yet to win this season — if the Mules want to play beyond this weekend.

Possible Finishes:
Colby finishes as the 5 seed with: Two wins, Trinity goes 0-1 and Hamilton goes 0-2.
Colby finishes as the 6 seed with: Two wins, Trinity goes 1-0 and Hamilton goes 0-2; OR Two wins, Trinity goes 0-1 and Hamilton goes 2-0 or 1-1.
Colby finishes as the 7 seed with: One win, Wesleyan goes 1-1 or 0-2, Tufts goes 1-1 or 0-2.*
Colby finishes as the 8 seed with: One win, Wesleyan goes 2-0, Tufts goes 1-1 or 0-2; OR One win, Wesleyan goes 0-2, Tufts goes 2-0; OR 0-2, Wesleyan goes 0-2, Tufts goes 2-0 or 1-1 and Conn. College goes 1-1 or 0-2.
Colby misses the NESCAC Tournament with: Two losses, Wesleyan 2-0 or 1-1; OR 1-1 and any two of Wesleyan, Tufts and Conn. College 2-0.**

*If Colby, Wesleyan and Tufts all finish 4-6 in the conference (this would happen if Tufts goes 2-0, beating Colby, Colby beats Bates and Wesleyan goes 1-1) then there would be a three-way tie as each team will have beaten and lost to one of the other teams. In that scenario, Colby would be the 7 seed because the second tiebreak (after head-to-head) is record against the top four teams. Only Colby has beaten one of the top four teams (Amherst) from that group, unless Wesleyan beats Williams, but either way, Wesleyan holds the head-to-head against Tufts and would be the second team in, making Colby the 7 seed and Wesleyan the 8 seed. It’s also possible for a four-way tie to occur at 4-6 if Hamilton goes 0-2, which we’ll address in a moment.

**The Mules also miss the tournament in the case of a four- or five-team tie at 3-7. This would occur if Colby and Wesleyan both lose out, Conn. College and Tufts finish 1-1 and Bates wins its final two games (though it’s not predicated on Bates’ participation, hence the four-team tie applies, too). Here, Wesleyan and Tufts would secure the 7 and 8 seeds, respectively, hanging lost only one game to the other teams involved in the tie-breaker. (Wesleyan holds the tie-breaker over Tufts). In the case of a three-team tie between Colby, Wesleyan and either Tufts or Conn. College, Colby would then jump to the 7 seed as each team would have a unique set of wins and losses, to one another and the Mules would have the lone win against a top-four team (Amherst). Wesleyan, having beaten both Conn. College and Tufts, would then be the 8 seed.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 17 @Hamilton (70-57 L).
Again, other games on Colby’s schedule were more tightly contested or were higher profile games, but in terms of securing a NESCAC Tournament berth, no other win would have meant more than beating Hamilton on the road, which would have guaranteed the Mules a place in the tourney and given them a legitimate shot at a home game in the first round as a top-four seed.

6) Hamilton (4-4), (@Weselyan, @Conn. College): Hamilton has resurrected its NESCAC season with wins in its last three games to improve to .500 in the conference. The Continentals had a season-defining win over Middlebury two weeks ago and followed it up with home wins over both Tufts and Bates. Now Hamilton has to go on the road, where it has yet to win a game in NESCAC play, to have a chance at stealing a top-four seed in the NESCAC Tournament.

Possible Finishes:
Hamilton will finish as the 3 seed with: Two wins, Trinity goes 0-1, Middlebury goes 1-1 and Bowdoin goes 0-2.
Hamilton will finish as the 4 seed with: Two wins, Trinity goes 0-1 and Middlebury goes 1-1 or Bowdoin goes 0-2.
Hamilton will finish as the 5 seed with: Two wins, Trinity goes 1-0 or Middlebury goes 2-0 or Bowdoin goes 2-0; OR Hamilton goes 1-1,* Trinity goes 0-1 and Middlebury goes 1-1.
Hamilton will finish as the 6 seed with: One win, Trinity goes 1-0 or 0-1, Middlebury goes 2-0 or 1-1; OR Hamilton goes 1-1, Middlebury goes 0-2 and Wesleyan goes 2-0; OR Hamilton goes 0-2 and Wesleyan and Conn. College go 1-1.
Hamilton will finish as the 7 seed with: One win against Conn. College, Middlebury goes 2-0 or 1-1 and Wesleyan goes 2-0; OR Hamilton goes 0-2, Wesleyan goes 1-1, Colby goes 1-1, Conn. College goes 2-0 AND Tufts goes 2-0.**

*This assumes Hamilton’s win is over Wesleyan. Should they lose to Wesleyan they would need Wesleyan to lose Williams to still secure the 5 seed.

**In this scenario there is a five-way tie between Hamilton, Colby, Wesleyan, Conn. College and Tufts all of which would be 4-6. (This scenario is possible and there is only one chain of events that would lead to this outcome). Should things break down as such, Wesleyan would get the six seed because the Cardinals went 3-1 against the other four 4-6 teams. Hamilton, Tufts and Conn. College, however, all went 2-2, with each losing to Wesleyan and then dropping a game to one another. The next step in the tie-break, therefore, is record against the top-four teams. Here, Hamilton comes out on top only if Middlebury is in the top four teams. If the Panthers lose to Trinity on Friday and Amherst on Sunday (such that the top four would be Amherst, Williams, Bowdoin and Trinity), then none of those three teams would have recorded a win against the top four and the tie-breaker would expand to records against the top eight teams. Here, Hamilton would escape the tie-breaker again with a win over fifth-seeded Middlebury, leaving Tufts and Conn. College to battle it out for the eight seed. Because Tufts has the head-t0-head advantage, the Jumbos would claim the eight seed, leaving Conn. College and Colby, which went 1-3 against that group of teams out of the playoff picture. Therefore, in the unlikely event of a five-way pile up at 4-6, the NESCAC standings would look like this: 6) Wesleyan; 7) Hamilton; 8) Tufts; 9) Conn. College; 10) Colby.

Game they wish they could have back: Saturday, January 11 @Trinity (62-53 L).
Beating Trinity would have done more than flip the two teams in the standings. At 5-3, Hamilton would be sitting in a three-way tie for third place with Middlebury and Bowdoin and would secure a home game in the NESCAC Tournament with two wins this weekend. As is, the Continentals are the most volatile team in the conference with finishes anywhere between the 3 and 7 seed possibilities.

5) Trinity (5-4), (vs. Middlebury): Trinity has been one of the league’s stingiest teams this season, but has yet to register a win against any of the conference’s top four teams. That could all change this weekend. A win over Middlebury would give the Bantams a signature win and would guarantee them a home game in then tournament. Trinity is not a serious contender for the NESCAC title, but if you can buy yourself another home game — and a possible rematch with Middlebury in the first round of the conference tournament on your floor —you say yes every time.

Possible Finishes:
Trinity will finish as the 3 seed with: A win over Middlebury and two Bowdoin losses.
Trinity will finish as the 4 seed with: A win over Middlebury and Bowdoin  goes 2-0 or 1-1.
Trinity will finish as the 5 seed with: A loss to Middlebury, Hamilton goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Colby goes 1-1 or 0-2.
Trinity will finish as the 6 seed with: A loss to Middlebury and Hamilton goes 2-0 or Colby goes 2-0.
Trinity will finish as the 7 seed with: A loss to Middlebury, Hamilton goes 2-0 and Colby goes 2-0.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 31 @Bowdoin (46-39 L).
Had Trinity beaten Bowdoin, a win over Middlebury would have secured the Bantams the third seed in the conference tournament. Instead Trinity scored a season-low 39 points on a horrific 29/12/39 shooting line and will have to beat Middlebury to secure a home game in the quarterfinal round.

4) Bowdoin (5-3), (@Bates, @Tufts): The Polar Bears have been the most consistent team in the NESCAC, taking care of business at home against lesser talented teams and dropping games to Williams and Middlebury on the road. The Polar Bears are talented, experienced and have one of the best five-man starting lineups in the conference. But they have yet to record a signature win, which may be the difference for them between an NCAA Tournament berth and a loss in the NESCAC Semifinals.

Possible Finishes:
Bowdoin will finish as the 3 seed with: One more win than Middlebury this weekend.
Bowdoin will finish as the 4 seed with: The same number of wins as Middlebury this weekend.
Bowdoin will finish as the 5 seed with: Two losses and Trinity goes 1-0 or Hamilton goes 2-0.
Bowdoin will finish as the 6 seed with: Two losses, Trinity goes 1-0 and Hamilton goes 2-0.

Game they wish they could have back: Saturday, February 1 @Amherst (70-67 L).
Amherst made just 10 two-point field goals in that game, but made up for it with 15 made threes. Bowdoin enjoyed an efficient scoring night, shooting better than 55 percent from the floor and held Amherst to 41 percent shooting. Despite the disparity, the Polar Bears ended up on the losing end. A win would have given Bowdoin the tie-breaker for the two-seed in the NESCAC Tournament and an outside shot at hosting.

3) Middlebury (5-3), (@Trinity, @Amherst): The Panthers have the toughest finishing schedule of any team on the road against two top-five teams. It is difficult to know if the Panthers have been snakebitten by NESCAC play or if they deserve the cards they’ve been dealt. On the one hand they lost one-possession games to Bates and Williams after holding double digit leads at halftime, on the other they stole a pair of games on the road at Wesleyan and Conn. College with a series of big plays down the stretch that would be difficult to replicate. Either way, the Panthers have a chance to grab the three seed in the tournament, which is more than they could have asked for two weeks ago following losses to Williams and Hamilton.

Possible Finishes:
Middlebury will finish as the 3 seed with: Two wins; OR one win over Trinity, Bowdoin goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Hamilton goes 1-1 or 0-2.*
Middlebury will finish as the 4 seed with: 1-1 (win against Trinity) and Bowdoin goes 2-0; OR 1-1 (loss to Trinity), Bowdoin goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Hamilton goes 1-1 or 0-2; OR 1-1 (win against Trinity), Bowdoin goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Hamilton goes 2-0.**
Middlebury will finish as the 5 seed with: 1-1 (loss against Trinity), Bowdoin goes 2-0 or Hamilton goes 2-0; OR 1-1 (win against Trinity), Bowdoin goes 2-0 and Hamilton goes 2-0; OR two losses and Bowdoin or Hamilton goes 2-0 or 1-1.
Middlebury will finish as the 6 seed with: 1-1 (loss to Trinity), Bowdoin goes 2-0 and Hamilton goes 2-0;*** OR two losses, Bowdoin and Hamilton go 2-0 or 1-1.

*If Middlebury, Bowdoin and Hamilton end up in a three-way tie at 6-4, things get interesting. Each have unique wins and losses to the other two teams and none of them would have wins over the top four (top two in this case because only Amherst and Williams are clearly ahead of them). Middlebury, however, would have one more win than Hamilton against the top eight teams and either one more or the same number as Bowdoin (depending on whether the Polar Bears lost to Tufts or Bates and whether Tufts then qualified for the tournament). Middlebury, however, holds the tie-breaker over Bowdoin, making them the three seed. Bowdoin, meanwhile, would be the four seed, either because they would have a better record than Hamilton against the top eight teams or, if their records are the same, because they own the head-to-head win over the Continentals.

**Things get really hairy if a five-team pile up occurs at 5-5. How this would happen: Middlebury and Bowdoin lose out, Hamilton goes 1-1, and Colby and Wesleyan both go 2-0. In that case, Trinity would be 3 seed at 6-4, Middlebury would be the 4 seed (only the Panthers and Polar Bears have one loss to that group and Bowdoin’s came to Middlebury), Bowdoin would be the 5 seed, Hamilton would be the 6 seed (only team with two losses), leaving Colby and Wesleyan, which both went 1-3 against the other teams in that group. Because Colby ahs the head-to-head victory, Colby would be the 7 seed and Wesleyan would be the 8 seed. If, however, you remove Bowdoin from the equation (say they go 7-3 or 6-4) and you have a four-team tie between Middlebury, Hamilton, Colby and Wesleyan, then Hamilton takes the 5 seed, Middlebury grabs the 6, Colby is the 7 and Wesleyan is the 8. In this case, Hamilton and Middlebury have one loss and Hamilton has the head-to-head tie-breaker, while Colby and Wesleyan would have two losses and Colby still holds the breaker.

**There is also the possibility of a four-team tie at 6-4 if: Trinity beats Middlebury, Middlebury beats Amherst, Bowdoin goes 1-1 and Hamilton goes 2-0. In that scenario, Bowdoin would be the 3 seed because they went 2-1 against those teams and beat Trinity head-to-head. Trinity would be the 4 seed because their only loss came to Bowdoin. Middlebury and Hamilton both lost two of their three games, but Hamilton beat Middlebury, which would make Hamilton the 5 seed and Middlebury the 6 seed.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 31 vs. Williams (64-61 L).
Middlebury led by as many as 18 points in the second half, before watching it all slip away in a heartbreaking loss. A win over Williams would have given Middlebury the inside track to the two seed, but would have had an even bigger impact on the Panthers’ Pool C odds as a win over the Ephs would have given Middlebury wins over two of the three top-ranked teams in the region, with a game at Amherst looming. Beat all three and the Panthers likely would have secured a Pool C bid. Now even a win over Amherst on Sunday guarantees Middlebury nothing.

2) Williams (7-1), (@Conn.College, @Wesleyan): Williams has stumbled just once this season in NESCAC play, but the Ephs have been less than convincing in a number of their wins. Regarded by many in the pre-season to be the most talented team in the country, Williams has thus far failed to dethrone Amherst. With an outside shot at hosting the NESCAC Tournament, the Ephs would love to secure a pair of wins, though they cannot fall beyond the two seed in the standings.

Possible Finishes:
Williams hosts the NESCAC Tournament with: A pair of wins and an Amherst loss.
Williams finishes as the 2 seed with: Any combination of a loss and an Amherst win.

Game they wish they could have back: Saturday, January 11 @Amherst (84-73 L).
Only one candidate here for the 7-1 Ephs: the loss to the Lord Jeffs in the conference’s opening weekend. Had Williams won that game they would almost certainly be hosting the NESCAC Tournament this weekend. But Amherst has twice beaten the Ephs, both at home on the road, and have proven so far to be the better of the two teams.

1) Amherst (8-1), (vs. Middlebury): Amherst has been the NESCAC’s best team for the third consecutive season. For the Lord Jeffs the equation is simple: beat Middlebury and host the third straight NESCAC Tournament at LeFrak Gymnasium.

Possible Finishes:
Amherst hosts the NESCAC Tournament with: A win over Middlebury; OR a loss to Middlebury and Williams goes 1-1 or 0-2.
Amherst finishes as the 2 seed with: A loss to Middlebury and Williams goes 2-0.

Game they wish they could have back: Friday, January 31 @Colby (70-65 L).
The Mules handed Amherst its one loss of the season. A victory that night would have secured the Lord Jeffs the number one overall seed, regardless of what happens in Sunday’s game. It also broke a streak of 38 consecutive wins in conference for Amherst. While Amherst will not run the slate for the third straight season, a win over Middlebury would make the loss to Colby moot.