North Central

Men's Basketball
The 2012-13 Panthers in Salem

The 2012-13 Panthers in Salem

 

(We are on the road to Salem. The combination of driving and mid-terms has delayed our preview, and we apologize.)

North Central (27-3), ranked #3 in the nation in the latest D3hoops.com poll, has emerged from the “Bracket of Death” (an 8-team pod that included Washington U., Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Whitewater, and North Central) and has been playing as well as just about any team in the tournament heading into Salem. Middlebury, who has won three games by a combined seven points in the tournament, faces their toughest matchup of the season.

North Central plays in the CCIW, one of the best conferences in the country, and comes into Salem riding an 11-game winning streak, including wins over Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan (twice each), Wheaton, Centre, and UW-Whitewater. The Cardinals rely on length, athleticism, suffocating defense (58.5 ppg allowed), and efficient offense, led by their two all-conference stars, Derek Raridon and Landon Gamble.

Raridon is a 6’5” score-first All-American who has been lighting up D3 ever since he arrived to North Central and put up 21.3 points per game his inaugural season. This year, Raridon is averaging 14.6 points per game on 51% FG, 46% 3FG shooting, as the talent around him has stepped up to balance his firepower. Raridon will likely go for 40 minutes tonight, and our guess is that Nolan Thompson will be right there with him for all 40.

Gamble is a 6’6” junior post scorer who is averaging 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game on 59% FG shooting. When he stays out of foul trouble, Gamble is one of the strongest and most talented big men in the nation. Given Middlebury’s difficulties stopping A.J. Stephens and Kevin McMahon earlier in the tournament, Gamble could be in for a big day. He will face some combination of Jack Roberts, James Jensen, and Peter Lynch down low. He is likely too strong for Roberts and Jensen, and too athletic for Lynch, but one of them could step up and limit the damage.

Outside of Raridon and Gamble is a deep group of long and talented complementary players. Vince Kmiec is a 6’4” wingman who scores 10.4 points per game and leads the team in 3-point field goals made on the season (48-153). Aaron Tiknis starts next to Gamble down low, averages 10.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and can score from inside and outside. Jack Burchett and Charlie Rosenberg, standing at 6’6” and 6’5” respectively, come off the bench and score efficiently in the post, shooting a combined 57% from the floor. Both, however, shoot under 50% from the free throw line, which limits their effectiveness. Rounding our the rotation are Brandon Williams and Pat Rourke, two limited guards who combine for 7.2 points in 38 minutes per game.

Outside of the individual profiles, we know a few things about North Central’s tendencies as a team. Their defense has carried them this season, as they are one of the best defensive teams in nation, especially on the perimeter; their last two opponents (two top-10 teams) have shot a combined 6-34 from beyond the arc. On offense, they like to get out in transition, and Kmiec and Tiknis won’t hesitate to pull up for three on the fast break. Their point guard play is limited, but the talent of Raridon and Gamble can carry them in the half court. Their one weakness on offense is free throw shooting, where they have shot 67% on the season.

In the sense that they are a great defensive team with mediocre free throw shooting, the Cardinals are reminiscent of the Middlebury squad that lost by two in Salem in 2011. Free throws hurt the Panthers in that loss, and they could hurt the Cardinals tonight. If Middlebury is down by multiple possessions in the last few minutes, they could go to a quick-foul strategy early.

The big question for Middlebury is whether they can score against such a high caliber defens, as the Panthers haven’t really faced a great defensive team this season. The three seniors each struggle when they have less space to play in, and their offensive games will be limited tonight. Wolfin and Thompson will have to adjust from an Ithaca team that left them with open looks for much of the game to a North Central team that by all accounts will not. Both will need to adjust quickly and attack; whether or not they make plays will determine the effectiveness of the Panther offense. Lynch, meanwhile, is most effective when he has time to work one-on-one inside, but the Cardinals are likely to swarm on him, so he has to either go up right away or find open teammates. We can expect Middlebury to give it to Lynch whenever he has Gamble in one-on-ones because of Gamble’s propensity to foul. Joey Kizel works well with limited space and should have another big game. James Jensen will likely get extended minutes because of his defensive value against the Cardinals’ length and athleticism. On offense, Jensen will have to attack the basket and draw contact when he gets the chance. Finally, Jack Roberts is going to be asked to limit Raridon at times and will have to do so effectively while staying out of foul trouble.

This is the toughest test of Middlebury’s season, and a non-NESCAC opponent the likes of which they have not seen since St. Thomas. We know this team too well to think they will go down without a fight. If they adjust to the defense, Thompson wins his matchup with Raridon, Wolfin and Lynch are efficient, and Kizel does Kizelian things, then they can advance. If North Central can score with ease down low, and get out in transition, it will be the end of the run for the Panthers.

Final Score: North Central 64, Middlebury 61.

We will be broadcasting the game live from Salem. If you want to listen, there will be an audio link on the Middlebury Athletics’ “Live Coverage” website.

Joey Kizel in Close Games

Men's Basketball

Screen shot 2013-03-20 at 2.25.53 AMA conversation on D3boards sparked the following research, which supports the notion we already knew: Joey Kizel is one of the best players in the country in close games/big games/”the moment.”

2011-12 Kizel in one-possession games:

  • 20 pts, 6-11 FG, 2-4 3FG, 6-6 FT
  • 16 pts, 5-8 FG, 2-4 3FG, 4-4 FT
  • 15 pts, 5-10 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-6 FT
  • 24 pts, 7-11 FG, 4-4 3FG, 6-6 FT
  • 26 pts, 8-13 FG, 3-6 3FG, 7-8 FT
  • 18 pts, 6-11 FG, 2-4 3FG, 4-5 FT
  • 21 pts, 7-10 FG, 3-6 3FG, 4-5 FT
  • 21 pts, 8-14 FG, 2-6 3FG, 3-3 FT

2011-12 one-possession game average: 

  • 20.1 ppg, 59% FG, 51% 3FG, 88% FT

2012-13 Kizel in one-possession* games:

  • 17 pts, 5-9 FG, 2-4 3FG, 5-6 FT
  • 12 pts, 5-10 FG, 0-3 3FG, 2-6 FT
  • 19 pts, 6-9 FG, 3-4 3FG, 4-6 FT
  • 15 pts, 5-9 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-4 FT
  • 30 pts, 8-17 FG, 5-10 3FG, 9-10 FT
  • 19 pts, 7-14 FG, 4-10 3FG, 1-2 FT
  • 13 pts, 4-7 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-4 FT


2012-13 one-possession game average:

  • 17.9 ppg, 53% FG, 43% 3FG, 78% FT

*excluding Curry because a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer cut it to one-possession.

Those statistics are incredible. The most amazing statistics might be his consistent efficiency: in fifteen such games, Kizel has been under 50% from the field only twice. And it would have been once were it not for the 3/4-court shot he took and missed at the expiration of the 2013 Amherst game, in which he finished 8-17.

Compare these statistics to those of D3Hoops Northeast Regional Player of the Year and NESCAC Player of the Year Aaron Toomey in one-possession games over the past two years:

Toomey ’11-’13 one-possession game average:

  • 14.6 ppg, 34% FG, 36% 3FG, 79% FT

One thing to be confident about heading into Salem: Middlebury’s best player defines rising to the occasion.

Also, a good reminder that we are constantly tweeting over at: @MiddPantherBlog, and for any readers who want more content, you can find it there.

A Moment for Reflection

Men's Basketball

IMG_0621One of the things that Jeff and I promised one another before the beginning of this season was that we wouldn’t take anything this team did for granted. A year ago, we were sure that Middlebury’s championship window had closed — that losing Andrew Locke and Ryan Sharry in consecutive seasons would be too much to overcome. Perhaps we let our emotions get the best of us in the aftermath of Travis Farrell’s buzzer-beater, but it seemed impossible then that Middlebury could be a serious national championship contender in 2012-13. A return to Salem in those hours immediately after Scranton shocked Middlebury seemed unfathomable. We resolved to appreciate the other things that this team would do: the way Nolan Thompson shuts down the opposing team’s best player every night; Joey Kizel’s unmatched resolve in the biggest moments; Jake Wolfin’s full-court vision in transition; Peter Lynch’s impeccable footwork.

Instead, what this team has, and continues to accomplish has amazed us. There will be another time to say a proper thank you to the many different people who made this improbable run possible, but we wanted to take a moment to share our deep appreciation for what this team has already done. Yesterday, Jeff remarked that no fan base in college basketball has it as good as Middlebury. In four years the seniors on this team have all but guaranteed that every game they play will either result in a win or a final play to decide the game. As basketball fans you can ask for nothing more. No team that I have ever been around has played with the same level of consistency and gritty determination as this team has. For Jake Wolfin, Nolan Thompson and Peter Lynch there could have been no better way to finish their careers at Pepin Gymnasium than Saturday’s win. This team has far surpassed our own expectations, but they have never betrayed any sense that their own expectations have been met. James Jensen told me months ago that this team’s primary goal was to return to Salem, and, incredibly, that is exactly what they have done.

Sweet Sixteen: Ithaca

Men's Basketball

At 4 pm Saturday Middlebury (24-3) will tip off against Ithaca (21-8) in the Sweet 16 at Pepin Gymnasium. Ithaca comes into the game having won back-to-back tournament games on the road, first with an 89-77 victory at Springfield and then a 70-68 upset of Rochester at the buzzer. With eight losses during the regular season, Ithaca doesn’t look like most Sweet 16 teams. Then again, neither did Scranton a year ago (more on this later), and Middlebury fans remember well how that ended.

Looking beyond wins and losses

Ithaca beat the once top-ranked Rochester on this buzzer-beater tip-in by Eli Maravich last Saturday

Ithaca beat the once top-ranked Rochester on this buzzer-beater tip-in by Eli Maravich last Saturday

Ithaca lost two of its first three games of the season, and from what we’ve heard, the Bombers came together — think Coach Carter only way less dramatic — after a 17-point loss at Cortland. Ithaca doesn’t lack talent — the team features Sean Rossi, the all-time assist leader in Division III basketball history and Travis Warech, a St. Michaels transfer who scored more than 1,000 points in just three seasons in Division II.  Warech, Rossi, and senior Andrei Oztemel have scored 1,385, 1,137, and 1,244 points in their respective careers. Warech leads the team with 16 points per game, but has been even better over the past two months, averaging 20.8 points in his last 14 games. Over the last three games (road wins over three tournament teams), Warech is averaging 22.3 points per game and 11.3 rebounds per game. Rossi, meanwhile, averages 7.1 assists per game, good for fourth in the nation. There were some bad losses (and wins) along the way for the Bombers, but some of that can be mitigated by injuries and tough last possession losses, to which Middlebury is no stranger. Further, Ithaca enters the game playing its best basketball of the season with three consecutive wins over tournament teams under win-or-go-home circumstances. The Bombers received an automatic bid to the tournament (their only way in) with a 70-55 win over Stevens in the finals of the Empire Eight tournament. They then reeled off wins at Springfield and Rochester. Regardless of their struggles earlier in the year, the Bombers are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and, as they showed when they beat a superior Rochester team, that matters far more than what was accomplished or missing during the regular season.

The Xs and Os

Coaches make big decisions before every game: how will you matchup with certain players? Will you hedge on ball screens or just switch on all screens? Do you implement a new play during the week? At the risk of sounding cliché, the coaches of both teams will have an even bigger impact on this game than usual. Jeff Brown has to determine who Nolan Thompson will guard and how the Panthers will defend the high ball screens that Ithaca continually runs on the perimeter. Warech and Rossi each present different challenges, and there are good reasons for believing Thompson will guard either. Warech seems like the obvious choice, and for good reason. He leads the team in scoring, is Thompson’s height, has carried the Bombers’ offense of late and has the versatility to beat defenders in a variety of different ways. Moreover, matching Thompson up with the shorter Rossi would leave height mismatches at the other positions, as Ithaca’s next five minutes-getters are 6’2″, 6’3″, 6’4″, 6’6″ and 6’9″, respectively. Despite Warech being the natural first choice, the more we look at Sean Rossi’s abilities, the more we are convinced it will be a tougher decision for Coach Brown. Rossi’s 950 career assists speak loudly: he is an offensive creator the likes of which Middlebury has never seen. During the tournament, he has accounted for 77% of the team’s assists. Rossi is a capable scorer, averaging 10.2 points per game on 41% field goal shooting over his career. His scoring numbers coupled with his unrivaled ability to distribute the ball may make him Ithaca’s most dangerous offensive weapon. If that is the case, Jeff Brown may elect to put Thompson on Rossi in the hope that if the NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year can slow down Rossi, Middlebury can stall the entire Ithaca offense. Coach Brown has been in a similar conundrum earlier this year against both Williams and Amherst. Against the Ephs, Thompson matched up exclusively with Williams’ leading scorer Taylor Epley. And while Thompson was able to nullify Epley the first time the teams played, Ephs’ point guard Nate Robertson, also a pass-first, pass-second, shoot-if-he-has-to player who thrives on penetration and distributing from the middle of the defense picked the Panthers apart down the stretch, consistently getting into the lane and finding open shooters on the perimeter, or players cutting to the basket. In the second game, against Amherst, Brown opted to play Thompson on Aaron Toomey to start the game, hoping to stymie the Lord Jeffs’ offense from its inception. Though Toomey struggled, Willy Workman wreaked havoc in Amherst’s half-court sets and the Middlebury coaching staff adjusted accordingly, switching Thompson onto Workman down the stretch. We would not be surprised if Middlebury chooses to do the same today, starting Thompson on either Warech or Rossi, but making the adjustment if/when necessary.

The second decision for Brown is how his team will defend Ithaca’s perimeter action, which involves a lot of high ball-screens and initiates Ithaca’s offense. While Thompson is impeccable at slipping through ball screens, Ithaca runs a number of different sets including a high double-ball screen at the top of the key (and will adjust the ball-handler based on Thompson’s matchup), which could force Middlebury to switch often. This game, more than any other, will test Middlebury defenders’ ability to rotate, communicate and avoid mismatches. Because Ithaca runs this high-screen offense so well, it might dictate Middlebury’s defensive switches anyway, and the Panthers could look to go to their 3-2 zone for stretches against the Bombers. Among their core rotation players, only Oztemel has made more than 33 treys on the season, though as a team, Ithaca shoots a respectable 36% from deep. Middlebury has had a week to prepare for the nuanced sets of this Ithaca offense, and we expect them to be ready with several defensive sets to employ as the situation commands.

For the Bombers, head coach Jim Mullins has an interesting decision to make defensively. Will he employ the same triangle-and-two look that was effective in shutting down John DiBartolomeo (2 points, 0-8 shooting) a week ago? While Joey Kizel (Last five games: 20.4 ppg, 51% FG, 45% 3FG) appears to be an ideal candidate for the triangle-and-two defense (which is comprised of a three-man zone with one defender at the top of the key and two defenders at the baseline on the edge of the lane, coupled with two defenders playing man defense, face-guarding two perimeter players who present the greatest offensive threat), the extended zone around them would give considerable space for other Panther players to operate. James Jensen and Peter Lynch have been especially effective when they catch in space in the middle of the zone and can put the ball on the ground and attack the basket. Furthermore, the Bombers would be taking a considerable risk using the triangle and two when Middlebury has Kizel, Thompson and Hunter Merryman on the floor at the same time, all three of whom shoot better than 42% from beyond the arc.

On the offensive end, the Mullins will have to adjust to Middlebury’s defensive alignment. Teams have shot their way out of games by attempting to force the offense to run through a player guarded by Nolan Thompson (I’m looking at you, Wesleyan). If Thompson matches up with Warech , Rossi will be asked to contribute even more offensively, and Warech would be unwise to attempt to attack Thompson for the perimeter as Sedale Jones did two weeks ago. Furthermore, if the Panthers open in the 3-2 zone, Ithaca will be forced out of many of their high-screen-and-roll looks, and the Bombers will have to find open looks for their best three-point shooters. To some degree, Mullins might be able to dictate when the Panthers play man versus zone, as Jeff Brown goes to the zone primarily when the opposing team’s best three-point threat is off the floor. In Middlebury’s two games against Wesleyan, Brown went to the zone when Brian Bartner sat, and today he may choose to use the zone look when Andrei Otzemel — a 39.7% three-point shooter — or Eli Maravich (42.3%) go to the bench.

PracticeKeys to the game

Given the different defensive looks both teams can use in this game, the keys to the game depend somewhat on how the two teams matchup with one another. Having said that, Middlebury will win this game if they can enter the ball into the post and get good looks for Lynch, Jensen and Jack Roberts and knock down open shots from the perimeter when the ball goes inside-out. This will be particularly important if Ithaca comes out in their triangle-and-two defense, which thrives on denying the best offensive players the ball at best, and good looks at worst, and baits other players into taking long-range shots. Given Jake Wolfin’s struggles this season from beyond the arc, if there’s a player Ithaca wants to see shooting the basketball, it’s number 5. That may be good math in theory, but tempting Wolfin into making shots and taking over a game in reality is a far more dangerous prospect. Wolfin is a big-game, big-shot player, who plays  best when the spotlight is on him. Consistently giving him open looks is a high-risk, high-reward strategy, and if Ithaca chooses to go that route, the team should be ready to adjust on the fly if Wolfin knocks down open looks or uses the space given to him to get into the lane and go to the basket or drive and kick. While Nolan Thompson would likely be the other target of the Bombers’ triangle and two, Ithaca will be hard-pressed to stay in the “junk” defense when Merryman, Kizel and Thompson are on the floor at the same time. Middlebury runs a deadly pick-and-pop set with Kizel and Merryman in a high ball screen, and if Ithaca plans on face-guarding Kizel, Merryman, who has struggled with his shot of late (Last five games: 26% FG, 16% 3FG), will get open looks. We say this almost every week, but knocking down open looks from beyond the arc may decide this game for the Panthers.

On the other end, Ithaca will need to attack Middlebury inside. The Bombers have two skilled big men in Frank Mitchell and Tom Sweeney, who are 6’6” and 6’9”, respectively. Of the two, Mitchell should worry Panther fans, as the junior from Hillsborough, New Jersey averages 14.9 points per game on 51% shooting. What he does exceptionally well, however, is draw contact and get to the free throw line. Mitchell has taken 135 free throws on the season, 26 more than Kizel, who is pretty good at getting to the line himself. In a game where Peter Lynch may be especially important on the offensive end (Lynch’s season totals against Williams, which also played an extended zone: 39 points in 48 minutes on 17 of 26 shooting), keeping Middlebury’s 6’6” power forward out of foul trouble will be key. Foul trouble may be an even bigger issue for the Bombers, however, who only have six players that average more than 3.2 points per game. Ithaca is particularly thin in the front court, with only one viable option off the bench behind Mitchell and Sweeney. If the Panthers can find the holes in the triangle and two, or penetrate against the Bombers’ man defense should they defend straight up, and force Ithaca’s big men out of position and into fouling situations, coach Mullins could find himself giving big minutes to inexperienced players off of the bench.

Thinking back to yesteryear

A year and a week ago, Travis Farrell ended Middlebury’s season with a game-winning, buzzer-beating three-point shot. Over the last week a number of coaches and players have talked about how the team overlooked Scranton a season ago. The Royals locked down the Panthers in the first half, holding the hosts to just 20 first-half points. Scranton maintained a three-to-five point lead in the second half as Middlebury failed to make a substantial run to re-take the lead. Then, after a Kizel floater with 5.9 seconds remaining tied the game, Farrell weaved his way to the left corner and released a three-point shot, which splashed through the net as the buzzer sounded.

Scranton advanced to the Sweet 16 (and then the Elite 8) with 7 losses on the regular season, one shy of Ithaca’s 8. While Ithaca is more dangerous offensively, Scranton featured a balanced offensive attack with disciplined perimeter defenders and enough size to challenge Lynch and Sharry inside. There are enough similarities between these two teams as well as the game circumstances that this game remains in the forefront of our minds (though it’s really never that far away) and has motivated the team to focus even more in its preparation for today. If Middlebury loses today, it won’t be the result of oversight.

What a way to say goodbye

Midd vs Hamilton-487As we go into this final home game for the senior trio of Jake Wolfin, Nolan Thompson, and Peter Lynch, it is worth taking a moment to reflect on their accomplished careers. All three have been centerpieces to the greatest run in the history of Middlebury basketball, which has included a NESCAC title and two runner-ups, four NCAA tournament berths, three Sweet Sixteens, one Final Four and a 16-6 career postseason record, all while piling up a school-record-tying 103 wins and only 13 losses. Only one senior class in all of Division III basketball has a better winning percentage in their careers than Thompson, Lynch and Wolfin. From the individual accomplishment department, Thompson and Wolfin are both members of the 1,000-point club, ranking 9th and 13th in school history, respectively. Thompson is second in career free throw percentage (81.5%), and Wolfin is the all-time leader in assists (545). Lynch, meanwhile, had to wait for his opportunity behind Andrew Locke and Ryan Sharry, but the gifted scorer has made up for it over the last two years. In addition to leading the team in scoring this season, Lynch is on pace to finish with the best field goal percentage in school history, at 60.8%. These seniors have defined the character of Middlebury basketball during their careers and we, and the Middlebury fan base, have reaped the benefits in the form of countless unforgettable moments and defining games. For those going to the game, this context should not be lost.

The Final Word

This Ithaca squad is vastly underrated, and those who rely on wins and losses to determine the measure of a team have already overlooked the Bombers. Due to injuries during the regular season to some of Ithaca’s core players, the Bombers are approaching this game with the mentality that they haven’t lost at full strength in two months. Middlebury, however, is coming off a win at Cortland against a hyper-confident team that hadn’t lost at home all season long. Ithaca’s collective mindset can only help them coming into the game, but if they find themselves in foul trouble and fall behind early, or go down by double-digits (or close to it) at halftime, as both of Middlebury’s tournament opponents have, will the Bombers be able to fight their way back into the game, or will the memory of the chemistry issues from the beginning of the year and their struggles to win when not at full strength derail the visitors?

Prediction

Middlebury 74 – Ithaca 70