The NESCAC Player of the Year talk is heating up, and with coaches voting on awards this week and announcements coming out at the end of the tournament, we wanted to make our nomination today, before postseason play starts. While most NESCAC observes are prognosticating a three-way race between Aaron Toomey, Willy Workman, and Michael Mayer, we think one player has been more valuable than any of the three: Nolan Thompson.

There is a good case to be made for the superstars mentioned above. Their conference statistics, followed by Thompson’s, went as follows:

Toomey: 18.6 ppg, 48/51/87 shooting, 4.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 34.6 mpg, 19 turnovers
Mayer: 17.9 ppg, 59/44/77 shooting, 8.4 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.4 spg, 1.2 bpg, 30.4 mpg, 25 turnovers
Workman:  12.7 ppg, 53/48/70 shooting, 7.6 ppg, 4.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, 33.9 mph, 18 turnovers
Thompson: 14.0 ppg, 54/52/91 shooting, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 38.2 mpg, 9 turnovers

Among the four, Thompson ranks 3rd in ppg, 2nd in FG%, 1st in 3PT%, 1st in FT%, 3rd in rpg, 4th in apg, 3rd in spg, 4th in bpg, 1st in mpg, and 1st in TOs.

In other words, based on purely traditional metrics, Thompson belongs firmly in the discussion. But it is the non-traditional numbers that define Thompson as a player and separate him from the pack. The following is a list of each conference matchup this season, with the statistics of the player Thompson guarded, followed by their conference averages.

Bates: (Don’t remember/know)
Tufts: Ben Ferris 2-3 FG, 4 points, 2 turnovers (Conference: 13.8 ppg, 43-87 FG)
Connecticut College: Matt Vadas 2-6 FG, 7 points, 3 turnovers (Conference: 19.1 ppg, 54-143 FG)
Wesleyan:* Shasha Brown 3-10 FG, 9 points, 2 turnovers (Conference: 18.9 ppg, 62-136 FG)
Williams: Taylor Epley 1-6 FG, 4 points, 3 turnovers (Conference: 18.2 ppg, 64-134 FG)
Hamilton: (Don’t remember/know)
Bowdoin: Bryan Hurley 1-5 FG, 3 points, 4 turnovers (Conference: 8.9 ppg, 27-86 FG)
Colby: (Don’t remember/know)
Trinity:** Mick Distasio 1-6 FG, 2 points, 5 turnovers (Conference: 5.9 ppg, 19-51 FG)
Amherst:*** Aaron Toomey 3-11 FG, 7 points, 1 turnover (Conference: 18.6 ppg, 54-107 FG);
Willy Workman 2-3, 4 points, 1 turnover (Conference: 12.7 ppg, 40-76 FG)

(Conference statistics subtract Middlebury game in order to accurately reflect statistical difference. For the Amherst and Wesleyan games, I only changed the field goal numbers, because the scoring totals are in majority reflections of non-Nolan defenders. Can explain more if necessary.)
*Brown scored 20 points in the game, but the tape shows 11 that were essentially out of Nolan’s control (fastbreak layup off of turnover, baskets after switches on screens, free throw put-pack)
**Distasio scored 5 points in the game, but at this point we were keeping close track to points allowed by Nolan, and it was 2.
*** Explanation for the numbers decided upon here can be read in our Amherst post-game note.

Thompson held the combination of Ferris, Brown, Vadas, and Epley, four of the top ten players in the league, to a combined 46 points under their season averages, an average of 11.5 fewer points per player per game.
He held Hurley and Distasio, two good but not great players, to a combined 9.8 points under their season averages.
He held Toomey and Workman to a combined 11 points in 55 minutes, whereas their season averages applied to the number of minutes he guarded each would have predicted 25.8 points, 14.8 points more than he allowed.
While a big part of Thompson’s game is limiting touches and shot attempts, his shot defense was stellar as well. These eight players shot a combined 15-50 from the field against Thompson, a 30% rate. They combined to shoot 45% in conference away from Thompson.

In sum, he held this group of players to abysmal shooting on their way to an average of 10.01 points under their season averages per game. The 10.01 points per game that he took away represents 64% of their average points per game.

This is a group of matchups that includes point guards, power forwards, and every position in between.
It includes players of the following heights: 5’10”, 5’11”, 6’2″, 6’3″, 6’4″, and 6’6″.
Of the eight players listed, six (Toomey, Workman, Brown, Vadas, Ferris, Epley) are likely to make an All-Conference team.
Every player except Epley, and arguably Hurley or Distasio, is the best player on his respective team.
While guarding these players, and despite playing 38.9 minutes per game, Nolan committed 10 fouls in all of conference play. At least 2 were intentional fouls in end-of-game situations. He ranked 2nd in the conference in minutes, and 89th in fouls (and 20% of the fouls were intentional!).
Speaking of minutes, Nolan would have played them all if Jeff Brown had let him. He went 40 against Williams and 55 against Amherst.

What Thompson accomplished night-in and night-out was both unbelievable and most likely unprecedented. He was assigned to guard every great player he could have possibly guarded in the conference and he won every matchup decisively. We believe that this resume is enough to make up for the (not-as-significant-as-you-would-think) difference between he and the other three in a comparison of traditional statistics. (Did you see those offensive efficiency numbers?)

This is not to say that we do not realize that all three of the players mentioned bring value that is not measured on the stat sheet. Toomey and Mayer both completely change the ways defenses play and create space and opportunities for their teammates like nobody else in the conference. Workman’s versatility is extremely valuable and dangerous, and he plays excellent defense as well (though most of the value of Workman’s roaming, risk-taking style of defense is reflected on the stat sheet). Much like Thompson, these three bring unique challenges to opposing coaches that go beyond the numbers.

Yet, having watched all of these guys play several times each, and looking closely at all of the measurables and considering all of the other factors and analytical inputs that we could come up with, we felt that Thompson was the most valuable of the bunch. The defensive numbers speak to his astonishing value.

While we did not count this toward our decision, it is worth mentioning that Thompson is a one-of-a-kind teammate and leader. His interview with Pat Coleman reflected his class and selflessness (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=eIdo7DtdneU). It goes beyond that though, as he is the silent example-setter who everybody else on the team follows in work ethic and attitude. Assistant Coach Alex Popp told us he has literally never heard Nolan make an excuse. Thompson is always in the gym shooting, and in the few moments when he goes to the bench during games, he is the most enthusiastic and vocal supporter of his teammates. He never talks about himself and he is filled with sincere compliments and appreciation directed toward his teammates and coaches. He exemplifies the leadership and character of the Division III student-athlete.

He is also, in our view, the best player in the conference.

While we will be coming out with our All-NESCAC teams soon, here are our picks for the other individual post-season awards:
COY: David Hixon, Amherst (Two straight years without losing in conference, while replacing three significant contributors, with the competitiveness at this level, is remarkable)
ROY: Tom Palleschi (His in-conference numbers almost earned him a spot on our Second-Team All-Conference)
DPOY: Thompson (Is there a defensive player of ever award?)

Middlebury begins postseason play today against Wesleyan in a rematch of a 78-77 overtime Panther victory January 12. The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior (or so the movie Side Effects claims), so we went back to the archives to analyze the regular season meeting between these two teams. Here are some of our observations.

Notes from Jan. 12 game

• Middlebury matches up in a zone defense early, Brown complacent at times against the zone, misses opportunities to attack with dribble penetration

• Mix zone and man, Panthers bigs do a great job hedging hard to start, give great help on Shasha Brown, in particular

• When Middlebury didn’t hedge hard, Brown broke them down and found Beresford for open threes. Not a big problem in the first half, but becomes a much bigger issue late in the second, when the Panthers can’t keep Brown out of the lane

• Despite getting good looks, Middlebury scores just 8 points through the first 10 minutes (lots of missed shots)

• Kizel keeps the Panthers in the game, knocking down a couple threes

• Middlebury looks very disjointed at times offensively

• Unlike Amherst, Wesleyan chooses not to double Peter Lynch in the low block. Pete missed a couple of good looks in the first half, but finished strong down the stretch and continually got to his spot on the floor.

• Middlebury with a 12-1 run from 6:05-1:29 in the first half to take a 3-point lead

• Churchill gave Middlebury really good minutes, blocking two shots and taking a charge in the first half

• Despite playing primarily zone defense, offensive rebounds for Wesleyan not an issue — just 1 for the Cardinals in the first half

• 11-0 Middleubry run starting at the 16:51 mark

• Wesleyan ends the streak with Callaghan getting to the line; Callaghan attacked Merryman at the hoop whenever those two matched up

• Callaghan picks up his fourth foul with 10:11 remaining in the game, finishes the game, including OT, without picking up his 5th foul

• Joey attacked through the first three quarters of the game… really looking to get his shot, both from three and inside… highly successful

• On the other end, Thompson playing great defense but Brown missed a lot of pretty good looks

• Nascimento did a nice job off the bench, got good looks from three, knocked two down

• 13-point Middlebury lead with 5:57 to play, hedging from Middlebury bigs on Brown becoming a problem

• At the 3:36 mark Middlebury goes into the hand-off offense up by 11

• First possession: airball, near shot clock violation

• Hand-off offense possession no.2: Middlebury goes into set with 15 seconds remaining on the shot clock, Wolfin turns the ball over

• Callaghan continuing attacking the basket, going to the line

• Callaghan with a big three off of ball screen with Sha Brown… Good hedge from Jensen, but Callghan knocks down the three on the flair (see more of this from Wesleyan in the rematch?)

• Brown got much of the credit for the comeback, and rightfully so, but Callaghan made a number of really difficult shots… defensively he’s a liability, however playing with 4 fouls

• Hand-off offense x3: Thompson isolates and gets the big make

• Jensen fouls out with 1:31 remaining in OT, played great defense on Callaghan in overitme

• Brown and Callaghan in the two man pick and roll to end the game, think we will see more of this today

5 Questions for Today

1) Which Wesleyan team will show up?

It has been a frustrating season for Cardinals fans, who watched their team build first half leads against Middlebury and Williams, only to see them, much like must of the rest of their season, slip away. A team that some expected to finish third in the conference before the season had to win the final game of their season just to clinch a NESCAC Tournament berth. With many expecting a NCAA Tournament appearance from the senior-heavy Cardinals, Wesleyan finished 12-12 and 4-6 in conference play, including a loss at Hamilton. Now Shasha Brown, Derick Beresford and Mike Callaghan will have to win the NESCAC Tournament to receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament to keep their hopes of ever reaching the Big Dance alive, an unlikely occurrence given that almost anyway the conference tournament shakes out, Wesleyan would need three consecutive wins against likely four of the six teams they lost to during the regular season (Middlebury, Williams, Amherst and, possibly, Tufts). It should make them desperate, however, and desperate teams are dangerous. We’ve already seen them raise their game once this season at Pepin Gymnasium, they can certainly do it again.

2) How much zone defense will Middlebury play?

The 2-3 zone was effective early in the game and while Derrick Beresford managed to knock down a couple open threes, Wesleyan shot shut 34.7% from beyond the arc on the season and is unlikely to replicate the 7-14 three-point shooting from the first time these two teams meet. Further, Middlebury rebounded very well in the zone, limiting the Cardinals to just 1 offensive rebound in the first half. Given Brown’s success getting into the lane in the second half and his team’s long distance shooting woes, I would guess Middlebury will go back to the zone, which we haven’t seen much of since then, to try to slow down Joe Reilly’s team.

Peter Lynch is a great low post scorer and could have a big game if Wesleyan opts not to double team him in the post.

3) Will Wesleyan defend Peter Lynch one-on-one again?

Lynch finished the game 5 of 9 from the floor, but it could have, and should have been more like 7 or 8 of 9 as the Middlebury big man missed a couple of shots early in the game that he almost always makes. On Tuesday, Amherst crashed hard, bringing extra defenders when Lynch caught in the post and forced the Panthers forward to pass out of the double team, something he has struggled to do this season (11 assists vs. 27 turnovers in conference play). How these two teams adjust from the first time they played will have a tremendous impact on this game, and I’d be surprised if Joe Reilly and his staff decided not to double Lynch when he catches inside. He’s far too skilled a post scorer to be left on an island with just one defender.

4) How will Jeff Brown use his bench?

Already missing Dylan Sinnickson for the season, the Middlebury coaching staff has also had to adapt to injuries to both Nate Bulluck and Dean Brierley, two of the team’s top reserve guards. The last time these teams met, Albert Nascimento came off the bench and sparked the team with a pair of big threes in the second half. Coach Brown can also choose to go to a zone with Nascimento in the game to avoid matching him up with either Brown or Beresford.

Interestingly, in the earlier matchup between these teams, Chris Churchill, the Panthers’ 6’9” sophomore center saw 11 minutes off the bench, contributing 4 points, blocking 2 shots (while altering others) and taking an important charge on Callaghan to give him one of his four fouls. The Cardinals don’t have the size to match up with both Roberts and Churchill, something Middlebury exploited the first time around.

Finally, James Jensen could play a big role in this game. He was limited by foul trouble last time, fouling out in just 18 minutes, but   played well when he was on the floor and has really come on as the season progressed. He defended Callaghan really well, all but shutting him down in the overtime period before fouling out. If he can stay on the floor, his play on both ends of the floor could be the difference.

5) Can Middlebury play a complete game?

When Jeff Brown’s team plays great basketball from wire-to-wire, they are nearly unbeatable. Sunday, Middlebury took Amherst to triple overtime despite trailing by 14 to start the second half. One of the things we questioned was whether the team could take its game to another level. The players answered that with a resounding yes, outscoring Amherst 40-26 over the course of the second half, and coming within an incredible, game-saving play by Willy Workman from winning the game. That same team (good and bad) was on display the first time these teams played as Middlebury fell behind early, trailing by 8 with 6:07 remaining in the first half before they reeled off a 12-1 run, which was part of a larger 31-12 run to take an 11-point lead with 13:35 left. That lead remained constant until the 3 minute mark, when Middlebury’s offense went stagnant and a number of impressive finishes coupled with poor perimeter defense from the Panthers brought Wesleyan right back into the game and forced overtime. Middlebury, which has struggled often this season with slow starts and poor finishes was outscored by a combined 21 points over the first 14 minutes of the game and the final three minutes of regulation. If the Panthers can avoid one of these two pitfalls they should win this game going away.

Broadcast: Listen to us on the radio here

Picks: We are going to pick each game during the tournament. For the first round, we are going all chalk (Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Tufts). The biggest threat among the bottom four teams is Wesleyan, followed by Bowdoin, but both Middlebury and Tufts are playing well right now.

With postseason play beginning Saturday, we wanted to quickly revisit our preseason predictions, because we only went as far as the end of the regular season at that time. It is always instructive and helpful to go back and evaluate our picks, so that we know what went right and what didn’t.

ROSTER AND MINUTES

In our preseason predictions, we projected a “starting” five of Kizel, Wolfin, Thompson, Lynch, and Jensen. We mentioned that Jensen might move to the bench and Roberts might start, as we later learned would be the case, but chose our five because we wanted to give more in-depth profiles on the guys who would see the most court time. As it stands, our five lead the team in minutes, with Jensen in fifth and Roberts in sixth. That is, our five ranked 1-5 in minutes, which is what we were aiming for. (Also, check out our Nolan Thompson preview; we said he was primed for this type of breakout senior campaign).

In our reserve player predictions, we had the “next four” going as follows: Roberts, Brierley, Merryman, Bulluck. Those four players indeed filled up the next four spots, though it ended up going in a different order: Roberts (19.1 mpg), then Merryman (17.2 mpg), then Bulluck (9.3 mpg), then Brierley (7.3 mpg). The numbers of the last two were affected by midseason injuries.

Next up among reserves we put Chris Churchill, who has appeared to forge a spot the eight man rotation based on his playing time over the past several games. Among freshman, we said that Henry Pendergast was the “most game-ready.” He led the class with 7.0 minutes per game.

So, we successfully predicted the top five minutes-getters, and which players would play significant roles off the bench.

WIN-LOSS RECORD AND CONFERENCE STANDINGS

We predicted that Middlebury would finish the season 21-2, which was correct. We picked them to go 8-2 in conference, and 13-0 out of conference, both of which were correct. Our only mistake was picking Middlebury to lose at Tufts and to beat Amherst, when in fact the opposite happened. Not bad, considering the Panthers beat Tufts by just one point, and the Amherst loss came in the waning seconds of triple overtime.

As for the other teams:

We predicted that Williams would finish conference play 9-1, which was correct.

We predicted that Tufts would finish conference play 7-3, which was correct.

We predicted that Amherst would finish conference play 8-2, which was incorrect; they finished 10-0.

To sum up, we correctly picked which four teams would host tournament games (Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Tufts), and were off by two combined wins with their four projected records. At the point in the year when we made the predictions, as any reader of d3boards can tell you, most everyone was, 1) down on Williams, and 2) high on Wesleyan. Wesleyan was a preseason top-25 team nationally, coming off a third-place NESCAC finish and returning their three stars, while the Ephs were unranked, coming off of a lackluster season and having lost superstar James Wang.

We did not successfully pick the order of the rest of the NESCAC; our order was as follows: Wesleyan, Bates, Hamilton, Connecticut College, Bowdoin, Trinity, Colby.

Instead, teams 5-11 finished in this order: Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Bates, Colby, Hamilton, Trinity, Connecticut College.

So, our biggest mistake with the lower part of the conference was undervaluing Bowdoin’s program, as they did a tremendous job replacing the voids left by Hanley and O’Connell with their young core. Since we had never seen so many guys who were stepping into big roles on so many of these teams in the lower tiers, the less consistent picks here were unsurprising.

We will not know how our preseason All-NESCAC teams ended up for a couple weeks, although it is safe to say we were right about most guys with a few changes needing to be made. On a related note, we will be publishing our All-NESCAC picks soon.

Final recap: the five guys we gave blown up profiles played the most minutes, our next four played the next most minutes, and we highlighted the two most significant additional contributors as well. We were a one-point win and a triple overtime loss away from going 23-0 in our game-by-game predictions, and we picked the four top seeds in the conference, including Williams and excluding Wesleyan, hitting the win-loss record of three of the four exactly.

In case you missed it, tonight was the best game of the Division III basketball season nationwide, and one of, if not the best in this generation of the NESCAC. Middlebury lost 104-101 in triple overtime. Damon will have a piece in the paper that we will link here, but for now, check out the write-up on D3hoops here: http://d3hoops.com/notables/2013/02/amherst-survives-triple-overtime-barnburner 

Here is something we just posted to D3boards which is worth sharing:

“Nolan Thompson played about 35 minutes on Aaron Toomey, and about 20 minutes on Willy Workman. In those time spans:

Toomey: 3-11, 7 points.
Workman: 2-3, 10* points.
*6 of those 10 points: 4 points off rebounding fouls by Peter Lynch, 1 point on FT after intentional foul, 2 points on FT put-back.

In other words, Nolan Thompson held Aaron Toomey and Willy Workman to a combined 11 points in 55 minutes on 5-14 shooting. In those 55 minutes, in a game in which there were 43 fouls called and 3 Middlebury starters fouled out, while guarding the best players on the floor, Nolan committed one personal foul; it was intentional. Nolan was also the only player on either team to never go to the bench for all 55.

Think about this: What percent of the NESCAC first + second team has been shut down by Nolan Thompson this season? Vadas, Ferris, Epley, Shasha (watch the tape), Toomey, and Workman all come to mind right away. Those are probably the top six players in the league who aren’t either 1) his teammate, 2) a center, or 3) Nolan himself.

Nolan is just doing something that really deserves to be appreciated. Congratulations to Amherst on an amazing win.”

UPDATE: Here is Damon’s article

We have attached an extended addendum to our preseason preview of the game. We went a little long, appropriate for the magnitude of today’s game. Note the discrepancy in dates is a result of the game being rescheduled due to weather complications from winter storm Nemo.

Feb. 9: AMHERST (26-3, 10-0)
Details: Saturday, 2:00 pm (at Middlebury)
Last year: Amherst 77-75 (OT), Amherst 71-69 (NESCAC Final)
If you could take any NESCAC team’s top three players to build around, you would take the Lord Jeffs’ Aaron Toomey (17.9 ppg, 4.8 apg), Willy Workman (11.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 50 stl, 30 blk), and Peter Kaasila (6.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg). The inside-out skills of these three guys, on both offense and defense, form the strongest core of any team in the conference. Amherst lost sharpshooter Taylor Barrise (10.5 ppg, 47% 3FG%) and forward Jeff Holmes (8.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and will rely on a group of young talented reserves to fill those roles. In both matchups between these teams last season, Middlebury came out flat and waited too long to turn things around. Although the Panthers were able to tie each game up at the end, the Lord Jeffs made the game-winning shot in both. This year, the Panthers won’t be able to afford allowing Amherst to get off to a hot start if they want to have a shot to win at the end of the game. That said, Middlebury is going to push the tempo against these guys from the start and will have the advantage if they dictate the pace from the beginning. While Toomey is talented and will put up phenomenal numbers this season, Joey Kizel has elevated his game to otherworldly levels when his team has needed him most, leading comebacks, hitting clutch shots, and making game-changing plays unlike any other NESCAC player in recent memory. The magnitude of this game will bring out the best in Kizel, and his team will follow suit. When the going gets tough for Amherst, we are not sure if they will be able to change the pace of the game or rely on their role players to step up and fill the void. Middlebury wins if they dial it in.
Prediction: Win

 FEBRUARY 12 EXTENDED ADDENDUM

Much of what we wrote in our preseason preview of this matchup three months ago remains true going into the regular season finale today. There has been no better triumvirate of teammates this season in the conference than Toomey, Workman and Kaasila, while Williamson, Kalema, Killian and Green have rounded out the best seven man rotation in the NESCAC. Before we break down the matchup, a quick note on the conference implications riding on this game. If Amherst wins, the Lord Jeffs would finish 10-0 in the NESCAC and host the conference tournament at LeFrak Gymnasium. Middlebury at 8-2 would finish third in the conference, regardless of what Williams (8-1) does at home against Trinity, due to the tiebreaker. If Middlebury wins and Williams loses (unlikely, but possible) Middlebury would host the conference tournament, Amherst would be the two seed and Williams would finish third. If both Middlebury and Williams win, there will be a three-way tie at the top of the NESCAC and each team will have a win and a loss against the other two, resulting in a coin toss (or drawing a name out of the hat in this case) to determine which school would host the NESCAC Tournament. Now that’s done, let’s get to the matchup.

Not the Same Amherst

Following an inefficient sophomore season during which Toomey was a volume shooter and scorer, the North Carolina native has played up to his preseason All-American status during his junior campaign. While his shooting numbers have improved across the board (.466/.445/.936), the greatest improvement in his game has come from beyond the arc. While teams often played off Toomey and dared him to shoot the three last season (he made just 34.2% of his attempts beyond the arc), the same strategy has been far less successful this season with Toomey making 44.5 percent of the treys he’s attempted in 2012-13. In fact, Amherst’s three-point shooting as a team has improved dramatically despite graduating Taylor Barrise and David Waller, the only two players who shot better than 35% from beyond the arc last season (minimum of 30 attempts, one per game). Consider for a moment that Barrise and Waller combined to make more than half of the team’s threes (110 of 207) last season and that the ’11-’12 Lord Jeffs, excluding Barrise and Waller, shot a putrid 30% (97-323) from the three-point line. With the team’s two best long-range shooters graduating, it would be fair to assume that Amherst would struggle to make threes — something that has been a big part of the Lord Jeffs’ game — at an efficient clip. Instead, David Hixon’s team leads the conference in three-point scoring, both in shooting percentage and made baskets. While the addition of sharpshooter Connor Green (40.4% from three) has helped, he is barely eclipsing the team average (40.1%). Rather, drastic improvements have come from Workman (25.4% vs. 40.8%), Allen Williamson (1-5 in ’11-’12, 8-23 in ’12-’13) and most notably from David Kalema who somehow morphed from a 21.9% (7-32) three-point shooter last season into a 44.2% (23-52) three-point shooter this season. While individual players will see considerable improvement in their three-point shooting from one season to the next (Nolan Thompson is a great example of this), others, like Joey Kizel and Jake Wolfin will fall on hard times. For a team to improve its shooting at every position the way Amherst has, despite losing its best three-point shooters from a season ago is an incredible feat. (On a side note this kind of jump is likely unsustainable and that the Lord Jeffs’s three-point shooting will regress next season).

Toomey and Kaasila on Fire

Nonetheless, Amherst enters the game as the number two team nationally and playing better basketball than anyone in the country. Aaron Toomey is the frontrunner for NESCAC Player of the Year and if he continues his play of late will deserve consideration for the Division III Player of the Year. Before the win over Williams Saturday, Toomey put together a six-game stretch where he averaged 26.3 points per game, 5.33 assists per game, 5.33 rebounds per game and 2.33 steals per game, while compiling .600/.550/.952 splits. It’s hard to imagine that anyone else in Division III basketball will put together those kinds of numbers over a six game stretch. Again, however, the great play has not been limited to Toomey. In the nine games prior to playing Williams Saturday, Pete Kaasila averaged 18 points and 6.7 rebounds per game and shot 69.9% (72-103) from the floor. While the Amherst big struggled mightily against Williams(1-8 from the floor), his offensive game is vastly improved this season (13 points per game on 63.6% field goal shooting).

The Matchup

Jeff Brown knows the disappointment of losing to Amherst all too well.

As you can surmise, no one has matched up all that well against Amherst this season. While Middlebury will likely be the first team that Amherst has played that can equal the Lord Jeffs’ talent in the rotation, the Panthers will have difficulty, as they did a season ago, defending Amherst’s many offensive weapons. The big question, and the one which could decide the tone of the game, is whether Joey Kizel or Nolan Thompson will be the primary defender assigned to guard Toomey.Though many are hyping this game as an exhibition of Toomey’s offense vs. Thompson’s defense, that is unlikely to be the case. In each of last year’s games Kizel spent the majority of the game guarding Toomey, particularly down the stretch, with mixed results. Toomey finished with 18 points on 6-10 shooting from the floor, but Kizel made the most impressive play of the game when he picked Toomey’s pocket in the backcourt before finishing an and-one to spark Middlebury’s late run to tie the game in the final minute. We expect Kizel to draw Toomey for the majority of this game again, largely because Kalema, Williamson and Workman provide problems of their own. In last year’s NESCAC Final, Thompson spent the majority of the game guarding Workman. In this case the size differential proved too much as Workman converted 7 of his 11 shot attempts and finished the game with 16 points. With the emergence of James Jensen, who has evolved into a hyper-athletic wing who plays with a controlled aggression on both ends of the court, and has been phenomenal on the defensive end, in particular, expect to see Jensen defending Workman and vice versa for large portions of the game. This leaves Thompson to guard Williamson, a fascinating matchup in its own right, and the combination of Lynch and Roberts guarding Kaasila.

How Middlebury Wins

If the Lord Jeffs have had an achilles heel this season, it has been their lack of consistent effort on defense. Is Amherst the team that throttled Williams, holding them to just 48 points and playing strong, team defense, or is it the team that gave up 89 points at home to Tufts, allowing Scott Anderson (35 points) and Tom Palleschi (15) to torch them for a combined 50 points inside? The answer, we believe, is some combination of both. Amherst has all the players necessary to be a good-to-very-good defensive team. Toomey has great speed and quickness and has some of the fastest hands in the NESCAC; Williamson is an athletic freak and tremendously strong; Workman is the reigning NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year; and Kaasila is a 6’9”, 260-pound banger who totally disrupted Ryan Sharry inside by taking away his low-post positioning and playing with a level of physicality that Sharry hadn’t encountered that season. The flip-side to all that, however, is that Amherst can be incredibly lazy on the defensive end at times. In both losses last season Kizel got almost anywhere on the floor he wanted, setting up great shots for his teammates. With the improved shooting of Nolan Thompson, if Joey can get into the lane and knock down mid-range jumpers or find open teammates, Middlebury has a great shot of knocking off Amherst. In order to do so, Peter Lynch, who quietly leads the Panthers in scoring, will have to stay on the court and out of foul trouble. Lynch is the best low-post scorer in the NESCAC (Mayer’s offensive game is more versatile, but his low-post game is not as good as Lynch’s) and when he’s been on the floor he’s produced, even when the matchup looks unfavorable. Middlebury will also need production from Jensen and Hunter Merryman, who could both be difference makers in this game. In Middlebury’s lone loss to Williams earlier this season Jensen was the Panthers’ best offensive player, and when he takes it upon himself to play a role in the offense, he is a tough matchup. Alternatively, Merryman provides the Panthers with a great outside shooter. While he’s found shots harder to come by during NESCAC play, if Amherst is undisciplined defensively, particularly on the high pick-and-role that Merryman runs with Kizel and Thompson, he will find himself open looks and Merryman hasn’t missed many of those (he’s shooting 51.6% from beyond the arc on the season).

The Panthers will need to find open shots using penetration and ball movement.

Defensively, Kizel and/or Thompson will have to limit Toomey’s ability to get into the lane, which is when he’s at his most dangerous. If Middlebury is constantly helping off Amherst’s perimeter players the game may get out of hand. The Middlebury coaching staff will have to be diligent to go with the best matchup possible, which might mean switching a number of different looks on Toomey, including Thompson or even Jensen, perhaps. It will be crucial, regardless of who is guarding Toomey, that Middlebury hedges well on ball screens. The Panthers did this particularly well against Shasha Brown in the first half, but lost their discipline down the stretch, allowing Brown to get into the lane, sparking the late comeback. Given Toomey’s quickness, my guess is that Middlebury will hedge hard on ball screens rather than flat hedge to slow Toomey down and keep him out of the lane — similar to the defensive approach against Brown. Jensen and Lynch are both stronger help defenders than Roberts, so we wouldn’t be surprised if Jensen gets the start and plays the majority of the game. The Panthers won’t have to be perfect to win at Pepin (where they haven’t lost a regular season game since the ’09-’10 season), but they will have to play as well as they have this season. Offensively, Amherst has evolved into a juggernaut, reaching a peak they never got to last year. Middlebury will need to feed off the energy of the crowd and outplay Amherst both physically and mentally to win this game. Finally, Jeff Brown’s team cannot disappear down the stretch. Of the 11 losses this senior class has sustained, the Panthers have led down the stretch in most of them, only to become passive and watch the lead fall away. No lead is safe against this Amherst team, and Middlebury cannot take the air out of the ball too soon if they find themselves up in the latter stages of the game.

Final Thought

While basketball fans love to analyze (and often exaggerate the importance of) individual matchups — we just did our fair share here — this game, like most, will be decided by who plays better team basketball. It may start with the battle on the perimeter, but it will be the team that can penetrate and get into the lane, draw defenders and find open shots — much like Aaron Toomey did in the conference final last season, penetrating and kicking to a momentarily open Taylor Barrise — that will win this game.

Tune In

As always, if you can’t make the game or are reading this from a distant land, tune in to Jeff and my broadcast, either by listening to WRMC (91.1 on your radio dial) or streaming the game online.