Five Burning Questions Heading into the New Year

Men's Basketball

Middlebury’s fall semester summary was posted a few days ago (here), and the 8-0 soon-to-be-top-ranked Panthers will kick off their post-break schedule this weekend at home against Rensselaer. The Panthers have shown they remain elite despite the loss of Ryan Sharry, and that they can beat lesser opponents, something that their fellow highly ranked New England foes (MIT, Amherst, Wesleyan) were not able to do consistently. The November and December games are closer to a preseason than a regular season for a team like Middlebury (now 31-0 in such games since 2009), and the defining games come in conference play and the tournament(s). Here are our five burning questions heading into the new year:

Sophomore Hunter Merryman will have a lot to do with Middlebury's success in 2013

Sophomore Hunter Merryman will have a lot to do with Middlebury’s success in 2013

1. What does 8-0 mean? 
The Panthers’ record means a better start, standings-wise, than every other team in the NESCAC and every team that was ranked above Middlebury in the pre-season Top 25, but anything less than 8-0 would have been cause for concern, so it doesn’t mean a lot (half of the team’s wins have been by single digits, and none have been against ranked opponents). In many of the early games, the Panthers looked shaky, but still in control. At times and for stretches they brought their A game, and looked elite at those times. In the second half of the most recent game vs. Skidmore, for example, we saw them pull away behind their trademark combination of hard defense (4 FGM) and efficient offense (46% FG, 50% 3FG). The question is whether that level of play is another gear everybody can kick into when the game is in jeopardy (Midd was losing 26-19 toward the end of the first half in that game), or a spark that comes and goes irregularly. If it is the former, 8-0 means things are going right; if it is the latter, 8-0 means things just haven’t lined up to go wrong yet, but that they will when the schedule tightens up.

2. Can Peter Lynch sustain his scoring numbers?
The senior captain, who averaged 9.8 points per game last season, has put up 17.3 per game on 69% shooting thus far this year, a stat-line even more impressive considering his 2-point no-show on opening night. He has taken over a bigger share of the points lost from Ryan Sharry’s departure than anybody expected, and if he continues to play at this level, with everyone else a year better, Middlebury might be better this year than last. Yet none of Middlebury’s early opponents had a true quality big man defender and Pete is an undersized (6’6″) post player who might struggle against longer, athletic defenders. Thus, it seems unreasonable not to expect his numbers to regress, because his production is limited by his size, and that will be the biggest noticeable variable in January/February. Last season, Pete actually improved his field goal percentage (up to 71%) in conference play, but he was the benefactor of Sharry-focused opponents down low. This year, he will be the go-to man in many half court sets, and we will find out just how much his game has improved.

Dylan Sinnickson is an athletic defender with a methodically effective mid-range jump shot.

Dylan Sinnickson is an athletic defender with a methodically effective mid-range jump shot.

3. When is Dylan Sinnickson returning?
The 6’5″ sophomore forward broke his arm in practice in November and was projected for a January return. We have seen him around campus and at practices, cast-less but dribbling/shooting with his left hand. Last season, the ultra-athletic Sinnickson averaged 5.7 points in 11.4 minutes per game, and we had been projecting him in a sixth man role for this season before the injury. Now, the front court is very crowded with the increased minutes of Jack Roberts, James Jensen, and Hunter Merryman alongside Lynch, and Sinnickson will have to find his game quickly to earn back his role. A quick return might be the only way he works his into the big game rotation given how many quality reserves Midd boasts and how soon they will be shortening the bench. There are nine games in January (plus one yet to be played at the end of December), but it is the last two (at Williams, vs. Keene State) when he will be needed most (because of the front courts those opponents boast).

4. How do you manage difference between starting lineup and best lineup?
Sophomore Jack Roberts is the starting center but he is probably the 7th or 8th best player on the team, behind both Merryman and Jensen. Currently, both of those reserves are averaging slightly more minutes per game (18.5 and 21.1, respectively) than Roberts (17.0), but Sinnickson’s return will complicate that situation. If Roberts drops down below 15 minutes per game, it will be interesting to see whether Jeff Brown keeps him in the starting rotation. Jack is the only conventional center of the group, and at 6’8″, is the best down low defender on the team, but the smaller guys are all more dynamic and complete players, so Coach Brown might try one out in the starting lineup. From this perspective, the best move is to keep Roberts starting because of the increased number of quality big opponents on the horizon and the need for his defense.

5. Is backcourt depth a concern?
Middlebury has the best starting guards in the conference in Joey Kizel, Jake Wolfin, and Nolan Thompson. However, after that, it is unclear whether the back court can hold up. Junior Nate Bulluck (10 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 37% FG) is talented and athletic but his tendency to put his head down and force shots is incongruent with this team’s playing style. Sophomore Dean Brierly (9 mpg, 2.4 ppg, 37% FG) plays smart but his scoring ability is not yet where it needs to be. Freshman Henry Pendergast (7 mpg, 2.2 ppg, 50% FG) is electric at times but too inconsistent (and too big of a liability at the free throw line) to trust with a regular spot in the rotation. Sophomore Albert Nascimento (3 games, 8 mpg, 6.3 ppg, 50% FG) has improved his game but is turnover-prone and shot-happy, a bad combination for a role player on a deep and efficient team. Right now, none of the four inspire confidence, but each is serviceable, and the group probably compares well to many NESCAC supporting casts (hard to say from an outsider’s perspective this early in the season). However, unless one player steps up (which wouldn’t be surprising), the lack of depth will leave the Panthers ill-equipped for foul trouble or injuries down the road.

Mens Basketball: First Third Summary and Thoughts Heading Forward

Men's Basketball
The 2012-13 Panthers after winning the season-opening Lebanon Valley Tournament

The 2012-13 Panthers after winning the season-opening Lebanon Valley Tournament

Middlebury heads into the holidays with an 8-0 record and a likely soon-to-be #1 ranking in the country (the one team ahead of Middlebury in the polls lost Monday). This will mark the second consecutive season that the Panthers enter the New Year looking down on the rest of division III. The ranking is a reflection of a positive start, but doesn’t mean much more than that the first trimester was upset-free.

The Panthers’ closest games were on the road against middle-tier opponents: 78-73 over Ursinus (4-5), 72-63 over Lebanon Valley (3-6), 80-73 over Plattsburgh State (7-2), and 79-71 over Johnson and Wales (4-5). Overall, Middlebury has been winning by an average of 19.8 points per game. They are winning with the same hyper-efficient offense (53% FG, 41% 3PT, 87.4 ppg), depth (5 players in double figures, 10+ guys who can play meaningful minutes), and tight defense (6.5 steals per game, 5.1 blocks per game, 42% opp FG) that defined their success last year, a reassuring sign for those worried about offsetting the loss of Ryan Sharry. Here are first third statistical leaders, notable statistics, and superlatives/awards:

Statistical Leaders through Fall semester:
Points per game: Peter Lynch, 17.3
Rebounds per game: Peter Lynch, 5.8
Assists per game: Joey Kizel, 5.1
Steals per game: Joey Kizel, 2.4
Blocks per game: Jack Roberts, 1.9
Field goal percentage: Peter Lynch, 69%
Free throw percentage: Peter Lynch, 87%
Three point percentage: Hunter Merryman, 62%
See full statistics here

Statistical notes:
-Since 2009, Middlebury is 31-0 before the New Year.
-Middlebury leads all NESCAC teams in field goal percentage and points per game.
-Peter Lynch has the 4th-best field goal percentage in the nation.
-Peter Lynch has the most 20 point games (4) of any player in the NESCAC.
-Peter Lynch’s 27 point game vs. GMC was one of three 27 point games for a Middlebury player since 2009.
-Middlebury’s 117 points vs. GMC were the second most since 2006.
-Middlebury held Skidmore to 4 FGM in the second half of their 74-53 victory.
-In the win vs. Southern VT, Middlebury won the assist battle 24-6.
-If he were eligible, Hunter Merryman would lead the nation in 3-point percentage.
Follow us on Twitter for stats like these on a regular basis.

First Half Awards:
MVP: PETER LYNCH, 17.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 69% FG
The 6’6″ senior captain has carried the team after a no-show on opening night, putting up big scoring numbers without taking a lot of shots. Lynch led the NESCAC in field goal percentage last season, and has improved on his already terrific post moves. His combination of strength and touch make him especially dominant against inferior opponents, as he has showcased in the early going. Pete’s inside scoring ability has also opened things up for Middlebury’s outside shooters.
DEFENSIVE MVP: NOLAN THOMPSON
Nolan’s defense can’t be quantified. He continues to match up with the opponent’s best outside scorer and shut him down. Just watch him play. One of the nice things about playing better opponents is the chance to see Nolan’s effectiveness really shine through. James Jensen would have gotten the nod if it weren’t for Thompson, as the 6’6″ junior has been winning matchups against points guards, centers, and everyone in between. James’ length, athleticism, and work ethic make him a defensive stud.
MOST IMPROVED/SIXTH MAN: HUNTER MERRYMAN, 12.6 PPG, 61% FG, 62% 3PT
Hunter Merryman went from being a healthy scratch in half of Middlebury’s games last season, to being one of the most dangerous scorers on the team. He is a fairly one-dimensional player, but that one dimension (shooting) is spectacular. The play of the season thus far was at the end of the first half against Skidmore, when Joey Kizel raced up the court with a few seconds to go, Merryman set a high screen, Kizel was doubled and kicked it back out to Merryman, and Merryman hit a three from several feet behind the three point line over an outstretched defender as time expired. The most remarkable thing about watching the play was that everyone knew the shot was going in. That’s what Hunter Merryman brings to the team.
TOP FRESHMAN: CONNOR HUFF, 4.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 6. 8 MPG
While Mat Daley and Henry Pendergast look to have the most potential, and have been the most exciting in spurts, both have been inconsistent thus far. Huff, however, has shown a variety of skills, making outside shots, forcing turnovers, and scoring inside, in his limited playing time. The 6’4″ forward shows the kind of hustle you love to see from a freshman, playing at full-tilt for every second of court time he gets, and it has paid off thus far.

We will be following this post up with some questions and concerns that have arisen or still linger after the first third of the season.

 

 

On Zach Driscoll’s All-American Snub

Football

Screen shot 2012-12-19 at 1.50.23 AMI was going to write a short post re-stating my frustration on Zach Driscoll not making the All-American Team (see argument here already made), but the guys who made the team responded to a tweet of mine and we had an exchange on the topic, which I thought I would share. For those who don’t know, Zach Driscoll (10.4 receptions/game, 142 yards/game, 1.875 TD/game) not only didn’t make the First Team All-American, but also didn’t make the Second, Third, or Honorable Mention Team. Here is our exchange:

PANTHERNATION (@MiddPantherBlog): Was holding back, but the fact that Zach Driscoll didn’t make the@d3football All-American team is indefensible.http://d3football.com/awards/all-americans/2012 …

PANTHERNATION: There are 8 wide receivers on the @d3football All-American Teams, all of whom had worse seasons than Zach Driscoll #snub

D3FOOTBALL.COM (@d3football): In your opinion. You want three Midd all-ams? Asking a lot. RT@MiddPantherBlog: … all of whom had worse seasons than Zach Driscoll #snub

PANTHERNATION: @d3football No, based on statistics. See https://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2012/11/13/a-quick-note-on-zach-driscoll/ … (not updated). Think he deserved it more than Moores or Chapman.

D3FOOTBALL.COM: As you can tell, this is not purely a stat leaders award. RT@MiddPantherBlog@d3football No, based on statistics.

PANTHERNATION: @d3football And his stats don’t do service to his abilities, but hard to make a convincing case by saying “you should see this guy play.”

PANTHERNATION: @d3football Neither of your FIRST team WRs had more receptions/game, yards/game/ OR TDs/game than Zach Driscoll.

PANTHERNATION: @d3football So here’s the question: Is there anything he could have done to make the team? If so, what?

To which @d3football did not reply.

It is unfortunate that the selection was made the way it was, and unfortunate that they were unable, and then unwilling, to defend it.

APPENDIX: Here are the lines of the eight wide receivers selected ahead of Driscoll, in order of Team (First, Second, etc.):

PLAYER: RECEPTIONS PER GAME, RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME, TD RECEPTIONS PER GAME

ERIC ROGERS: 9.1, 130, 1.8
JASPER COLLINS: 6.1, 113, 1.5
D’MARIO PARKER: 6.4, 95, 0.6
MARK HIBEN: 8.0, 120, 1.4
BRANDON BOYLE: 8.7, 139, 1.6
JEREMY MEIER: 7.3, 121, 1.5
LEE CAROTHERS: 6.3, 94, 1.0
KYLE LINVILLE: 7.1, 119, 1.8

I underlined all of the statistics where the player in question surpassed Zach Driscoll’s number.

Get it? Not a single All-American selection put up better numbers than Zach Driscoll, in ANY of the three categories.

ZACH DRISCOLL: 10.4, 142, 1.9

He had more receptions per game than each of them, more receiving yards per game than each of them, and more receiving TDs per game than each of them (!). So this is not just a case of us saying, “Our guy was good enough to be an All-American,” which plenty of fans of schools across the country are saying, and which is a reflection of the admittedly difficult task of selecting among a crop of many great and deserving players. Rather, this is a case of saying: how can you possibly defend your eight selections against one player who had more receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns per game than any of them? You put together the best statistics among all of the All-American wide-receivers and produce a super-All-American hybrid and he still will average fewer receptions, yards, and TDs per game than Zach Driscoll.

It would not have been possible for Zach Driscoll to put together a more impressive 2012 season in any respect other than degree-to-which-he-surpassed-the-other-eight, which is simply a preposterous contingency for his selection.

And to anyone who argues that Driscoll is a “System Wide Receiver,” which has somehow become part of the typical narrative on Driscoll, that is simply not the case. There has never been a wide receiver nearly as dominant as Driscoll in Middlebury’s history, let alone in Coach Bob Ritter’s tenure running this offensive system. The reason that Zach Driscoll flourished was because of his phenomenal route-running ability, glue hands, and plus athleticism. He was an impossible matchup because he was a threat to make a play everywhere on the field. His route tree was complex, and he made opposing defenses mad with his versatility as a receiver. Press him and he beats you deep down the sideline for six; back off and he’ll catch one across the middle then rack up yards after the catch; play him straight and he will run one of his signature post or flag intermediate routes that always end up with him streaking into a pocket in the secondary with his defender in recovery mode and the end zone in his sights; etcetera. He made catches in traffic, in space, in the end zone, while getting hit, while bodying defenders, and while running by defenders. And he did it over, and over, and over again. That isn’t a system player or a fluky stats player; it’s a no-brainer All-American.