On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man. Why is this, you ask? Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. The … Con……Continue Reading I Can Read Faces! My Wager On The Election Results
Tag: presidential forecast
Dickinson and Silver, Take Two
Whether he did so out of frustration or some other emotion, I want to thank Nate Silver for taking time from his busy schedule to respond (twice!) to my critique of poll-based forecasting models similar to his. This type of … Continue reading &……Continue Reading Dickinson and Silver, Take Two
Pay No Attention To Those Polls (Or To Forecast Models Based On Them)
Brace yourselves. With the two main party nominees established, we are now entering the poll-driven media phase of presidential electoral politics. For the next several months, media coverage will be dominated by analyses of trial heat polls pitting ……Continue Reading Pay No Attention To Those Polls (Or To Forecast Models Based On Them)