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Dear Nate Silver: IT’S NOT MY FAULT!

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Once again I am reminded of the power – both good and bad – of social media. My post today discussing the results from the latest Senate forecast models is up here at U.S. News.  I should point out that I very much appreciate the opportunity to post there – it enables me to reach […]

In Defense of Nate Silver (Sort Of)

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Nate Silver’s new 538 website opened last week to generally lackluster reviews.  “It just isn’t working,” according to Tyler Cowens. Paul Krugman agrees: “I’m sorry to say that I had the same reaction. Here’s hoping that Nate Silver and company … Continue reading

Dickinson and Silver, Take Two

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Whether he did so out of frustration or some other emotion, I want to thank Nate Silver for taking time from his busy schedule to respond (twice!) to my critique of poll-based forecasting models similar to his.  This type of … Continue reading

Pay No Attention To Those Polls (Or To Forecast Models Based On Them)

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Brace yourselves. With the two main party nominees established, we are now entering the poll-driven media phase of presidential electoral politics.  For the next several months, media coverage will be dominated by analyses of trial heat polls pitting the two … Continue reading

Predictions, Predictions: Congress and the Courts

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
How reliable is the generic ballot survey question in helping forecast the size of the Democratic losses that will occur in November?  As we move closer to November 2, a growing proportion of my blog posts will undoubtedly focus on … Continue reading