Tags » midterm election

 
 
 

Fenno’s Paradox, or Why You Should Ignore That Poll That Says We Hate Our Member of Congress

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
This WashingtonPost/ABC poll finds that, “for the first time ever”, a majority of those surveyed disapprove not just of Congress, but of their own member of Congress.  What does this portend for the fall midterm election?  As I write in … Continue reading

Why Did Political Scientists Miss the Midterm Wave?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
After a period of post-midterm decompression, it’s time to return to the blogging salt mines. Picking up where I left off in my last post, let me start with a simple question: why did every political science forecast of the … Continue reading

Can We Trust the Gallup Generic Ballot Results?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
At this stage in the electoral cycle, the fundamentals that drive the midterm vote – unemployment, real disposable income, attitudes toward Obama – are for the most part fixed, barring a major event. The key question now becomes who will … Continue reading

Is the Public Stupid? When A Chart Is Not Worth A Thousand Words

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
This item from yesterday’s Washington Post caught my eye as a useful teaching moment.  Ezra Klein posted this graph, based on this most recent Washington Post/ABC Poll,  under the label “A chart is worth a thousand words”: It’s not clear what Klein’s point is, but presumably he means to point out just how illogical voters are, [...]