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Predictions, Predictions: Congress and the Courts

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
How reliable is the generic ballot survey question in helping forecast the size of the Democratic losses that will occur in November?  As we move closer to November 2, a growing proportion of my blog posts will undoubtedly focus on … Continue reading

Tuesday’s Results: Good News for Obama and Democrats?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
I’ve been on deadline with a conference paper, so am commenting somewhat belatedly on last Tuesday’s election results, focusing on the highly publicized Senate primary races in Colorado and Connecticut.  As you know, in Colorado, incumbent Democrat Michael (“One T”) … Continue reading

The Latest Gallup Poll: Are Democrats Gaining Momentum?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Another nice teaching moment, this one courtesy of Jay Cost at the Horserace blog and Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com. Gallup released their latest generic ballot results under the headlines “Democrats Jump Into Six Point Lead on the Generic Ballot”.   As the following table shows, this jump comes after many months of polling data in which [...]