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	<title>The Middlebury Blog Network &#187; forecast models</title>
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	<description>Selected Posts from the Midd Blogosphere</description>
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		<title>Who Is Really Winning This Race?</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 04:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 presidential election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13762</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Because I have been giving election talks with more frequency of late, I haven’t been able to post nearly as often as I would like.  In giving those talks, however, I am reminded (and I remind my audiences!) that, once &#8230; Continue reading &#8594; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Because I have been giving election talks with more frequency of late, I haven’t been able to post nearly as often as I would like.  In giving those talks, however, I am reminded (and I remind my audiences!) that, once &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>No Bread,  No Victory: Why Obama Might Lose in 2012</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/02/no-bread-no-win-why-obama-might-lose-in-2012/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/02/no-bread-no-win-why-obama-might-lose-in-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Aug 2012 16:25:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Hibbs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13049</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Another day, another political science forecast.  This one, Professor Doug Hibbs’ Bread and Peace model, is one of the more parsimonious forecast efforts around.  He essentially uses two variables – a weighted average of the per capita disposable... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/02/no-bread-no-win-why-obama-might-lose-in-2012/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Another day, another political science forecast.  This one, Professor Doug Hibbs’ Bread and Peace model, is one of the more parsimonious forecast efforts around.  He essentially uses two variables – a weighted average of the per capita disposable personal income &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/08/02/no-bread-no-win-why-obama-might-lose-in-2012/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Changing the Abramowitz Presidential Forecast Model: Is It Science?</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/27/changing-the-abramowitz-presidential-forecast-model-is-it-science/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/27/changing-the-abramowitz-presidential-forecast-model-is-it-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2012 12:44:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alan Abramowitz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13030</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Beginning today I’ll be posting on a weekly basis (or more frequently) over at the Economist&#8216;s Democracy In America blog site.  My first post, addressing Alan Abramowitz’s recent changes to his presidential forecast model, is up there now (h... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/27/changing-the-abramowitz-presidential-forecast-model-is-it-science/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Beginning today I’ll be posting on a weekly basis (or more frequently) over at the Economist&#8216;s Democracy In America blog site.  My first post, addressing Alan Abramowitz’s recent changes to his presidential forecast model, is up there now (here).  Although &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/27/changing-the-abramowitz-presidential-forecast-model-is-it-science/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>A Turning Point In The Election?</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/22/a-turning-point-in-the-election/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/22/a-turning-point-in-the-election/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jul 2012 19:17:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[election fundamentals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GDP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=12998</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The reaction – or lack thereof – among voters to the Bain controversy once again illustrates an important distinction between how partisan pundits (you know to whom I’m referring) and political scientists analyze what drives election results.  A... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/22/a-turning-point-in-the-election/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[The reaction – or lack thereof – among voters to the Bain controversy once again illustrates an important distinction between how partisan pundits (you know to whom I’m referring) and political scientists analyze what drives election results.  As the controversy &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/22/a-turning-point-in-the-election/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/07/22/a-turning-point-in-the-election/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Why Did Political Scientists Miss the Midterm Wave?</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/21/why-did-political-scientists-miss-the-midterm-wave/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/21/why-did-political-scientists-miss-the-midterm-wave/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Nov 2010 19:48:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[midterm election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=8690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a period of post-midterm decompression, it’s time to return to the blogging salt mines. Picking up where I left off in my last post, let me start with a simple question: why did every political science forecast of the &#8230; Continue reading &#38;... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/21/why-did-political-scientists-miss-the-midterm-wave/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[After a period of post-midterm decompression, it’s time to return to the blogging salt mines. Picking up where I left off in my last post, let me start with a simple question: why did every political science forecast of the &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/21/why-did-political-scientists-miss-the-midterm-wave/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/21/why-did-political-scientists-miss-the-midterm-wave/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
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