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The Election Forecast: It’s The Fundamentals, Stupid!

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Political scientist Lynn Vavreck posted an interesting New York Times column a couple days back in which she noted that midterm elections – more so than presidential elections – are referendums on the president and his party. As she writes, “Instead of rewarding or punishing the incumbent president for his handling of the nation’s economy, […]

Who Is Really Winning This Race?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Because I have been giving election talks with more frequency of late, I haven’t been able to post nearly as often as I would like.  In giving those talks, however, I am reminded (and I remind my audiences!) that, once … Continue reading

No Bread, No Victory: Why Obama Might Lose in 2012

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Another day, another political science forecast.  This one, Professor Doug Hibbs’ Bread and Peace model, is one of the more parsimonious forecast efforts around.  He essentially uses two variables – a weighted average of the per capita disposable personal income … Continue reading

Changing the Abramowitz Presidential Forecast Model: Is It Science?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Beginning today I’ll be posting on a weekly basis (or more frequently) over at the Economist‘s Democracy In America blog site.  My first post, addressing Alan Abramowitz’s recent changes to his presidential forecast model, is up there now (here).  Although … Continue reading

A Turning Point In The Election?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
The reaction – or lack thereof – among voters to the Bain controversy once again illustrates an important distinction between how partisan pundits (you know to whom I’m referring) and political scientists analyze what drives election results.  As the controversy … Continue reading

Why Did Political Scientists Miss the Midterm Wave?

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
After a period of post-midterm decompression, it’s time to return to the blogging salt mines. Picking up where I left off in my last post, let me start with a simple question: why did every political science forecast of the … Continue reading