Posts by Matthew Dickinson

 
 
 

About Those Senate Forecasts

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
I’m up today at U.S News (see here) trying to make sense of the variation in the more quantitatively-driven Senate forecasts that are popping up.  At first glance they seem all over the map, running the gamut from the Princeton Election Consortium’s Sam Wang’s optimistic 75% probability that Democrats will retain a majority on November […]

Obama, Carter and the Problem of National Security Leaks

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
This weekend the WayBack machine takes us to 1979 and an inside look at archival documents from Jimmy Carter’s White House during a particularly volatile time in his presidency, when he struggled to deal with the fall of the Iranian government under the Shah Pahlevi – a situation not dissimilar to what President Obama is […]

Take Two, Drew! Linzer Unveils His Senate Forecast Model

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Longtime readers will know that I was a big fan of Drew Linzer’s 2012 presidential forecast model contained at his Votamatic website, and not just because he was kind enough fly out here to give a talk to Middlebury students during the middle of the presidential campaign. Linzer’s model, you will recall, correctly predicted the […]

Klein, Kristof and the Most Advanced Field in the Study of Politics

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
One of my lasting memories of graduate school is hearing Professor Mo Fiorina, tongue only partly in cheek, tell a gathering of first-year Government (political science to most of you) doctoral students that the study of American politics was the most scientifically advanced among the discipline’s four major subfields. At the time I thought Mo’s […]

Obama, FDR, and the Summer of Pundits’ Disconnect

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
I rarely focus an entire post on a single piece of punditry, but Ron Fournier’s National Journal article today, under the title “The Summer of Obama’s Disconnect” exemplifies so many of the misunderstandings regarding presidential power that I thought it deserved my (and your) undivided attention. Fournier’s basic point – one that has become the […]

What?! No Strategy? The President Should Just Resign

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
Typically my Saturday post centers on a trip back using the WayBack machine to revisit some presidential archive, but I confess I’m too distraught over the President’s monumental gaffe to even bother with my usual topic. You know the gaffe I mean – Obama admitted during his press confidence two days ago that he didn’t […]

Why “We Don’t Have A Strategy Yet” Is a Good Strategy For Now

Categories: Midd Blogosphere
In my years of punditry sophisticated application of political science to presidential politics, it has been rare for a president to both confirm my take on his previous actions and to follow my advice on what to do next within hours of my post on the topic. (Please, hold the hate mail – I’m not […]