Author Archives: Matthew Dickinson

Private Parts and October Surprises

Was this the October surprise? Last week, in an interview previewing the vice presidential debate,  I was asked about the possibility of an “October surprise” – an unexpected event that could potentially shake up the presidential race.  I noted that these events are inherently unpredictable but that historically the presidential campaign enters its most stable […]

Private Parts and October Surprises

Was this the October surprise? Last week, in an interview previewing the vice presidential debate,  I was asked about the possibility of an “October surprise” – an unexpected event that could potentially shake up the presidential race.  I noted that these events are inherently unpredictable but that historically the presidential campaign enters its most stable […]

Why Clinton Supporters Shouldn’t Panic

First the bad news for Clinton supporters.  The national polls have indisputably tightened since Clinton’s peak post-convention bounce in early August.  On August 8, the HuffPost aggregate polling had her up by 8.4%, 48.3%-39.9% over Trump, consistent with pundits’ predictions that this would be a blowout election.  As of today, however, her aggregate lead is down […]

Who Do You Trust: The Polls or the Forecast Models?

It’s nearly Labor Day, the traditional kickoff to the stretch run of the presidential election.  It’s also the time when political scientists begin unveiling the result of their presidential election forecast models.  Some of these represent preliminary snapshots of the race, pending final third-quarter economic results and other data, but to the extent that the […]

Why President Trump Would Avoid the Nude Beach

Last year at about this time I wrote a post noting how the media was paying little-to-no attention to President Obama’s decision to once again vacation on Martha’s Vineyard. This was in sharp contrast to previous years where political opponents had lampooned Obama’s choice to spend some downtime golfing, reading and generally relaxing with his […]

Why They Really Support Trump: The View From The Campaign Trail

Last Saturday I attended a Trump rally in Windham, New Hampshire – a relatively affluent town (median income was $127,868 in 2014) of just under of 15,000 people located in the southern portion of the Granite State.  Regular readers will know that I’ve attended several Trump rallies, but this was the first one since I […]