Author Archives: Matthew Dickinson

The Most Nationalized House Election Since Eisenhower?

It has become fashionable of late, particularly among liberal pundits, to argue that the future of the Republican Party depends on its leaders severing all connections with Trump and his movement.  For a number of reasons that I will discuss in future posts, I think this is profoundly stupid advice for Republicans to follow.  But […]

Why New Hampshire Is Trending Trump – and Why It Likely Doesn’t Matter

For most of this fall in my election talks, I have argued that the most plausible road to victory for Donald Trump runs through New Hampshire. Other seem to agree as, apparently, does Trump; media reports indicate he is scheduled to spend election eve in Manchester, at the Southern New Hampshire University arena which is […]

The Race Was Always Going To Tighten

Let’s be clear: if history is a reliable guide, this presidential race was going to finish closer than the polling last Friday indicated – even without the latest Clinton-Comey email imbroglio. Indeed, there was evidence that the race was already tightening before Comey’s letter telling congressional leaders a new batch of emails that were potentially […]

Private Parts and October Surprises

Was this the October surprise? Last week, in an interview previewing the vice presidential debate,  I was asked about the possibility of an “October surprise” – an unexpected event that could potentially shake up the presidential race.  I noted that these events are inherently unpredictable but that historically the presidential campaign enters its most stable […]

Private Parts and October Surprises

Was this the October surprise? Last week, in an interview previewing the vice presidential debate,  I was asked about the possibility of an “October surprise” – an unexpected event that could potentially shake up the presidential race.  I noted that these events are inherently unpredictable but that historically the presidential campaign enters its most stable […]