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	<title>The Middlebury Blog Network &#187; Matthew Dickinson</title>
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	<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/middblogs</link>
	<description>Selected Posts from the Midd Blogosphere</description>
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		<title>Obama’s Victory And The Power of Incumbency In The Modern Era</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Nov 2012 17:45:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama reelection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[power of incumency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13825</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A reporter recently emailed asking me to comment on the following observation: &#8220;This is the first time in American history since Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe that the United States has elected three consecutive presidents to two terms &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/">Continue reading <span>&#8594;</span></a> <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[A reporter recently emailed asking me to comment on the following observation: “This is the first time in American history since Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe that the United States has elected three consecutive presidents to two terms &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/17/obamas-victory-and-the-power-of-incumbency-in-the-modern-era/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Why Joe and Jane Sixpack – and James Madison –  Are Likely Pleased With Tuesday’s Results</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2012 17:34:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[divided government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Madison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[split-ticket voting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13814</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bob Johnson, as is his wont, chastises me once again for implicitly suggesting in my previous post that Americans last Tuesday again voted for divided government. &#160;Bob writes, &#8220;In fact I suspect that we could and in fact may be &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/">Continue reading <span>&#8594;</span></a> <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Bob Johnson, as is his wont, chastises me once again for implicitly suggesting in my previous post that Americans last Tuesday again voted for divided government.  Bob writes, “In fact I suspect that we could and in fact may be &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/11/why-joe-and-jane-sixpack-and-james-madison-are-likely-pleased-with-tuesdays-results/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Once More, With Feeling! Divided We Stand</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/09/once-more-with-feeling-divided-we-stand/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/09/once-more-with-feeling-divided-we-stand/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Nov 2012 16:10:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[divided government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13798</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As we begin assessing the results of the 2012 elections, perhaps the most important takeaway is that, once again, the country has voted for divided government.&#160; When this newly-elected Congress finishes its term in January, 2015, we will have had &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/09/once-more-with-feeling-divided-we-stand/">Continue reading <span>&#8594;</span></a> <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/09/once-more-with-feeling-divided-we-stand/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[As we begin assessing the results of the 2012 elections, perhaps the most important takeaway is that, once again, the country has voted for divided government.  When this newly-elected Congress finishes its term in January, 2015, we will have had &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/09/once-more-with-feeling-divided-we-stand/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>The Big Winner Last Night? Political Science!</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Nov 2012 17:06:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models; 2012 presidential election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13791</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For a political scientist, last night&#8217;s outcomes were very, very satisfying. &#160;To begin, viewed in the aggregate, the structural-based forecast models issued by last September hit the two-party popular vote share almost exactly on the head, as of this moment.&#160; &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/">Continue reading <span>&#8594;</span></a> <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[For a political scientist, last night’s outcomes were very, very satisfying.  To begin, viewed in the aggregate, the structural-based forecast models issued by last September hit the two-party popular vote share almost exactly on the head, as of this moment.  &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/07/the-big-winner-last-night-political-science/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Live Blogging The Presidential Election Returns</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2012 23:38:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13788</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s 6:30, and I welcome everyone to the Presidential Power Election Night Live Blog.&#160; As always, I invite everyone to join in via the comments section.&#160;&#160; Now that the software glitch (that would be me), my comments should post on &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/">Continue reading <span>&#8594;</span></a> <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[It&#8217;s 6:30, and I welcome everyone to the Presidential Power Election Night Live Blog.  As always, I invite everyone to join in via the comments section.   Now that the software glitch (that would be me), my comments should post on &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/live-blogging-the-presidential-election-returns/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Midday Election Observations</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/midday-election-observations/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/midday-election-observations/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:48:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 presidential election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[election prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13784</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My teaching/advising duties are stretching me thin today, so I’m a bit slower with this post than I expected.  As I noted in last night’s post, however, the state-based forecast models are all showing an Obama victory in the Electoral &#8230; Cont... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/midday-election-observations/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[My teaching/advising duties are stretching me thin today, so I’m a bit slower with this post than I expected.  As I noted in last night’s post, however, the state-based forecast models are all showing an Obama victory in the Electoral &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/midday-election-observations/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/midday-election-observations/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>I Can Read Faces! My Wager On The Election Results</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/i-can-read-faces-my-wager-on-the-election-results/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/i-can-read-faces-my-wager-on-the-election-results/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2012 05:06:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[presidential forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13781</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man.  Why is this, you ask?  Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a  dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. The &#8230; Con... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/i-can-read-faces-my-wager-on-the-election-results/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man.  Why is this, you ask?  Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a  dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. The &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/i-can-read-faces-my-wager-on-the-election-results/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/06/i-can-read-faces-my-wager-on-the-election-results/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>The Pundits vs. Political Science: Debating the Impact of the First Debate</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/04/the-pundits-vs-political-science-debating-the-impact-of-the-first-debate/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/04/the-pundits-vs-political-science-debating-the-impact-of-the-first-debate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Nov 2012 23:09:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[first debate; debate impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13776</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As Election 2012 heads down to the wire, it is fascinating to see how the pundits view this race compared to where the political scientists do (at least as I interpret them).  They often seem to be looking at two &#8230; Continue reading &#8594; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/04/the-pundits-vs-political-science-debating-the-impact-of-the-first-debate/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[As Election 2012 heads down to the wire, it is fascinating to see how the pundits view this race compared to where the political scientists do (at least as I interpret them).  They often seem to be looking at two &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/04/the-pundits-vs-political-science-debating-the-impact-of-the-first-debate/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Who Is Really Winning This Race?</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 04:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 presidential election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13762</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Because I have been giving election talks with more frequency of late, I haven’t been able to post nearly as often as I would like.  In giving those talks, however, I am reminded (and I remind my audiences!) that, once &#8230; Continue reading &#8594; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Because I have been giving election talks with more frequency of late, I haven’t been able to post nearly as often as I would like.  In giving those talks, however, I am reminded (and I remind my audiences!) that, once &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/11/01/who-is-really-winning-this-race/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Different Forecast, Same Result: More Political Science Models</title>
		<link>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/10/29/different-forecast-same-result-more-political-science-models/</link>
		<comments>http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/10/29/different-forecast-same-result-more-political-science-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2012 01:07:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Dickinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midd Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast models; 2012 presidential election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Holbrook and DeSart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/?p=13750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Politico’s Dylan Byers created a minor dust-up in the twitterverse today when he posted an article that appeared to take a shot at the New York Times’  Nate Silver’s prognosticating skills. Byers writes, “Prediction is the name of Silver&#38;#8217... <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/10/29/different-forecast-same-result-more-political-science-models/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Politico’s Dylan Byers created a minor dust-up in the twitterverse today when he posted an article that appeared to take a shot at the New York Times’  Nate Silver’s prognosticating skills. Byers writes, “Prediction is the name of Silver&#8217;s game, &#8230; <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2012/10/29/different-forecast-same-result-more-political-science-models/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></content:encoded>
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