Facts

kelley

Allen Kelley

Will Population Growth delay or accelerate economic growth?


Topics to be Discussed

I. What growth models tell us

II. What the data tell us

III. Population and the the Asian Miracle

  • Modern technology
  • Education
  • Labor Force
  • Saving

 

General Reading Assignment

Bloom, David and David Canning, (1998), “Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition”, in Birdsall, Nancy; Kelley, Allen C.; Sinding, Steven W., eds. , (2001) Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world , Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2001 Chapter 7, pp. 165-197. (Electronic Reserve) (REPLACE?)


 

Individual Reading Assignments

(Two-page report due on October 6)

 Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E

Group A

Ashraf, Q.; Weil, D.; and Wilde, J. (2013), “The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth”. Population and Development Review, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp97-130. (Consider only pp 97-106 and pp 123-125) (Electronic Reserve)

 

Group B

 

Galor, Oded and Mountford, A,. {2008), “Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 75, pp. 1143-1179 (Consider only pp 1143-1145 and pp. 1169-1174.) (Electronic Reserve)

 

Group C

Hansen, Alvin, (2004) “Alvin Hansen on Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth”,Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 329-342.(Electronic Reserve)

Coleman, D. and R. Rowthorn, (2011), “Who’s Afraid of Population Decline? A Critical Examination of its Consequences” Population and Development Review, Vol. 37 (Supplement) pp. 217-248.(Electronic Reserve)

Group D.

Yu, Zhihao, (2011), “Demographic Dynamics and Economic Take-Off”, The Chinese Economy, vol. 44 no. 1, pp. 72-90. (Consider only pp 72-75, pp81 and pp 87-88). (Electronic Reserve)

Group E.

Kelley, Allen C. and Robert M. Schmidt, (1996), “Toward a Cure for Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate: A Dose of Historical Perspective” in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, Dennis A. Ahlburg, Allen C. Kelley and Karen Oppenheim Mason (editors), Springer Verlag, New York, 1996, pp. 11-35. (Electronic Reserve)

Heady, Derek, (2009), “The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature”, Population and Development Review, vol. 35, no. 2, pp221-248. (Consider only pp 221-224 and pp. 236-237.(Electronic Reserve)